The gathering political storm and NS strategy

What is holding the government back?

Some rapid and rather unexpected political developments in recent days have apparently caused serious setbacks to the government of Nawaz Sharif (NS) creating the impression as if it is moving towards political instability that in turn may affect its economic agenda. Strangely, however, the government appears to be in its characteristic ‘dormant’ mode despite the events accelerating at an unusual speed.

The most frequent question that is being asked is; what is holding the government back to respond to so many developments on so many fronts. Political observers are looking for the answer to this most vital of questions concerning the present government and those who are running it. And they are coming up with different explanations and answers. But most probably the reasons for its apparent inaction lie in three different elements; the leadership’s predetermined but rigid political and economic agendas, its inborn religious conservatism, and the fear factor which is the hallmark of NS and his coterie of confidants and advisers.

The so-called government-military differences spiraled initially from the stand government took on the Musharraf issue. It wasn’t long before the government took another position essentially different from that of the army. This was regarding the terrorism and Taliban problem. Soon it were other initiatives relating to policies particularly about India and Afghanistan that increased the distance between civilian and military setups. The remaining gape was filled by the Geo-military tiff in which the government, so to speak, was seen reacting rather belatedly.

At the moment it is the Geo-military tension and insidious infighting amongst different media groups that is creating a furore-like situation giving impetus to an overall feeling of political turmoil. Add to this the planned protest of Imran Khan on May 11 against the so-called stealing of elections and the ominous descend of TahiulQadri, and the recipe for an uncertain future seems to be complete.

Amidst this entire gathering storm, it is the government’s ‘predetermined’ political and economic agenda that seems not only to be the main source of most of the problems but which is likely to suffer an irreparable damage if the government didn’t shift into damage-control gear immediately. The original agenda consisted of; a) creating a semblance of economic boom (rather than stability) on urgent basis, and b) taking strength from economic gains, moving on to the objective of establishing civilian supremacy over the military both in internal and foreign policy domains. However, there was more to it than what met the eye initially; the factor of personal vendetta (as the democratic project had to start from Musharraf). That would have killed two birds with one stone; while settling personal scores it would establish civilian (his) supremacy over (the generals of) the armed forces.

To achieve this end NS wanted to emulate the Turkish model, i.e. strengthening economy before taking effectively on the generals. But he couldn’t wait for it to happen the natural way so he decided to reach the desired point by trying to fast-forward the whole system to it. He very shrewdly kept the people guessing about his real intentions regarding Musharraf yet taking very small, ambiguous and almost unnoticeable steps in order not to let him completely off the hook, i.e. not to let him slip away from the country, at least.

In the meanwhile NS government concentrated all its efforts to inject around $ 10 billion (Rs 10 trillion) into the country’s economy. This was managed through Saudi ‘gift’, Eurobonds and 3G-4G sale and IMF tranches, along with other routine national and foreign revenue generation sources. This lubricated the economic machine to a reasonable extent but this in itself was not enough for him to pronounce his intentions loudly about the person of Musharraf and declare war on the armed forces in a subtle way. He had to build public support behind him before the start of the formal war and for that it was necessary that the fruits of economic revival reach the people.

Translating macro-economic gains into micro-economic benefits takes time. It took Turkey almost a decade to reach that point and create a growing and prospering middle class, making a large chunk of population real stakeholder in the evolving democratic system.

But this is easier said than done. Translating macro-economic gains into micro-economic benefits takes time. It took Turkey almost a decade to reach that point and create a growing and prospering middle class, making a large chunk of population real stakeholder in the evolving democratic system. That’s where NS opted fast-forwarding the process by creating an artificial trickle-down effect through marginal decrease in petroleum products prices, nominal reduction in electricity rate, lowering down dollar’s exchange rate vis-à-vis the rupee, announcing substantial relief package for Ramazan, and promising rise in salary to government employees in the upcoming budget.

All these measures were aimed at winning or increasing popular support before the government entering into a formal power-struggle with the traditional powers that be. However, this wasn’t to be the case because temporary (and nominal/artificial) economic relief to the people cannot bring a social change overnight. That change comes when people feel the difference between the previous and current sets of rulers and the systems they represent; and when they see long-term betterment in their lives or feel their economic interests threatened when the system is faced with instability. Then they take their sides and stand with the ones they feel can ensure durable economic prosperity. That’s the difference between temporary economic boom and sustainable economic development.

Despite lesser chances of success, this strategy had the capacity to pay were NS able to keep the irritants confined to one or two and that, too, within manageable levels. Unfortunately, in the situation that is in the making, this may not be a viable possibility anymore. A long and painful summer season is in while KhwajaAsif says power will be out. Frequent power cuts have already agitated the masses. Differences with the army on some important matters are ballooning. People are already out on the streets to show solidarity with ISI and the armed forces. Imran Khan seems all bent to get maximum political mileage out of ruling party’s difficulties. And last, but not the least, TuQ will feel no scruples even if it meant rocking the boat altogether.

The likely emerging situation suggests that fast-forwarding to economic and then political stability will not materialize, even if it were possible otherwise. This demands flexibility in that pre-determined and rigid agenda NS started with. This is not to alter his plans of action by trying to scare him with the possibility of armed forces clamping down martial law on the country once again. No. Not at all. There seems no immediate threat of such an ominous development. The simple fact is that the longer this unstable situation prevails, the greater the losses will be for PML (N) and the people of Pakistan because it will hamper the economic journey PML (N) government has started with great effort.

Its leadership will have to shun personal grievances if it wants to make right decisions based on serving greater national interests. It has to acknowledge there are no short-cuts to long-lasting economic prosperity. And unless that is achieved through a time-consuming natural democratic evolution, it will be hard for any politician to lay claim on political supremacy. All this is possible if it is accepted that there are flaws in the original blueprint and that the time-frame for it needs to be reassessed.

There is a general consensus that situation will start defusing as soon as the present government showed its willingness to do the following:

1)      A concrete decision is taken and a firm stance taken regarding the menace of terrorism, input from the armed forces is given due weightage and people are not just taken into confidence about it but also kept updated routinely.

2)      Musharraf’s issue is given a fresh look and resolved or done away with in some face-saving manner.

3)      Some of the concerns of Imran Khan are addressed, particularly his complaints about rigging in certain constituencies. This will auger well for the future of democracy as well.

4)      It plays a mediating role in lowering tensions between the quarrelling media group and an aggrieved and somewhat hurt military. This tiff has its bad repercussions on the whole of the media and consequently on the overall political atmosphere of the country.

5)      The government accepts that only long-term solutions are proper solutions to fix the economy; and that the long-term solutions include permanent resolution of the prevailing law and order and terrorism problems in the country.

It’s true that all these measure are difficult, painful and time-consuming but there is no way bypassing them. But then it is also true that nations under visionary and fearless leaders sometimes take hard decisions for their survival and betterment. Also, history shows that best leaders are considered those who take decisions and render sacrifices for the cause of posterity. A great setback to democracy can be easily avoided if NS resisted the temptation of personally seeing a former dictator disgraced. An existential threat to the state can be neutralized if personal conservative religious thinking is kept aside and the fear of death is shunned. A temporary political irritant can be soothed if some demands of opposition political leaders are accommodated. That, in turn, will benefit economy which ultimately will serve the interests of PML (N), the country and its miserable populace which is crawling on all the fours under the burden of poverty, ignorance and disease.