Who really wields power in Pakistan, the people or the establishment?
Despite appearances, the PAT and PTI demonstrations have little in common except the date and place, and of course the clichéd fight for democracy. Otherwise Tahir ul Qadri has problems with the system of governance itself, whereas Imran Khan is more concerned with electoral fraud, the latter implying that the system breaks down when the incumbent does not represent public mandate, but rather hijacks it.
But there is also much both parties have not bothered to explain, which has split public opinion, perhaps intentionally. Qadri has promised to go all the way this time, unlike his previous show when the PPP government was able to take the sting out of what seemed like a particularly strong show of force. Yet his demands are too out-of-the-box to be accepted as-is, and of all people Qadri knows the government will not capitulate no matter how many thousands he gathers this time. So why the promise, especially after his reputation from last year, that his fiery rhetoric fades away just as quickly as it emerges, or re-emerges as in this case? Any compromise will make him appear weak, and keeping too many people out in the summer heat for too long will be impossible, especially if the centre doesn’t blink, which it won’t.
Khan’s is a different show. PTI’s strategy revolves around giving another kind of ‘or else’ demand. They do not intend to dig in till something gives way, but rather make one strong show of force and present a set of requirements along with deadlines, which they will monitor carefully.
Between protest and agitation
“We do not wish to destabilise the capital, especially at this critical juncture when the country faces a host of problems”, said Ejaz Chaudhry, PTI’s Punjab president. “We are not militants or fanatics. We are just giving a public call, and the people’s response seems to show they are really disgruntled with the ruling party”.
The government has been unable to get a handle on the country’s most pressing problems like inflation, circular debt, energy shortage, etc, according to PTI, because those in power simply do not represent popular public mandate, but came to power by rigging the polls.
The government has been unable to get a handle on the country’s most pressing problems like inflation, circular debt, energy shortage, etc, according to PTI, because those in power simply do not represent popular public mandate, but came to power by rigging the polls. Therefore, it is little surprise that they are more interested in their own issues and agenda than the public’s.
“And it is not something that happened overnight. We have been crying hoarse about rigging for exactly a year now, with good reason, but have been let down by every legal avenue, hence the option of taking to the street”, added Chaudhry, and “the party chairman will present a set of demands along with a suitable timeframe for the government to follow. We do not intend to stay and agitate, we are exercising our right to protest”.
But such strategy can easily fall in the realm of tricky politics. That PTI has a very loyal support base cannot be disputed, but whether or not it is smart to expect thousands to march onto the capital in support of policy objectives that have not been announced or discussed remains to be seen. It is also not clear how closely workers of Shaikh Rasheed’s Awami League will share their PTI counterparts’ unflinching support for the kaptaan’s vision.
And such uncertainty has taken some of the shine off the protests before they could gather momentum.
“I do not see this as a prudent way to protest”, said Dr Mehdi Hassan, prominent journalist, writer and analyst. “Such gestures are not likely to impact the people much. If anything, I expect these protests to fizzle out sooner rather than later”.
Dangerous perception
The government’s position has not helped clarify matters either. Throughout the talks with the TTP its public face, for obvious reasons, has been the federal interior and information ministers. And of course, sitting government ministers don’t make public statements, especially about important and sensitive issues, without proper consultation and go-ahead from the party hierarchy. That is why it is all the more strange that Nawaz Sharif green-lighted Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah, never the party’s most articulate voice, to take the lead on these protests.
And while it is no surprise for any government to rubbish anti-government rallies, Sanaullah went a step ahead and suggested the military was pulling strings from behind the scenes.
“It has been proven that Imran Khan is under the influence of the forces that have patronised him all along”, he told this paper recently. But his analysis finds few takers.
“It seems the N league does not have good strategists”, added Dr Hassan. “They do not have any strategic programs either. This has been visible throughout the talks with the Taliban as well. The government was without a workable strategy whereas the militants were very clear in what they asked for and got”.
How these protests play out will tell a lot, especially the government’s reaction. If they lose steam quickly and reach a settlement that falls short of tall claims, a lot will become easier to understand, particularly about agendas of various leaders involved.
Sanaullah’s accusation was not without its share of irony. Most Pakistani politicians are products of the military’s power machine, but the most prominent has been the ruling party chief Nawaz Sharif himself, prepped and pushed by Gen Zia, something that the Sanaullahs of the party do not point to when questioning the military’s puppeteering.
And such accusations give rise to more outlandish assertions. The PPP’s position is particularly interesting.
“A very dangerous perception is being created”, said Taj Hider, PPP old timer and founding member. “The claim that the establishment is sponsoring these protests to sabotage democracy is very dangerous indeed. In politics, perceptions matter more than reality at times”.
Haider believes that the government’s efforts to deflect blame towards the military are meant to hide the real truth behind today’s supposedly anti-government protests. The government, as well as protesting parties, represent right of centre elements. And despite their fallout before the public, their interests are in fact aligned, and this is merely in-house fighting.
“The establishment is involved all right, but this fight is about sharing the spoils”, added Haider. “The establishment distributed the gains of the last election among centre-right parties, and Imran and some of his friends simply want more of the pie”.
The most likely outcome, therefore, is a reasonable patch up that does not take very long coming. The protagonists do not have the best democratic credentials either. Qadri’s only contribution to democracy has been to try and disrupt it, during the PPP government and again now. And Imran, having taken KPK, has failed to live up to any of his campaign promises, devoting his energies not to education, health, corruption, etc, but to the Taliban and blocking nato supplies. For these forces to hold the centre accountable before the people is not without its share of irony either.
How these protests play out will tell a lot, especially the government’s reaction. If they lose steam quickly and reach a settlement that falls short of tall claims, a lot will become easier to understand, particularly about agendas of various leaders involved.
“The real question in Pakistan is about who wields the ultimate power, the people or the establishment?” questioned Haider.
