Are we ready to accept the change?
Wake up. Pull up your socks. Tighten the ropes. Secure your footholds. Join hands. It is time to unite rather than fighting over petty matters. It is time to put the house in order.
Change in the region is in full swing. Afghanistan is going to change. India is in the change frenzy too. Iran has proved its diplomatic prowess by securing their atomic programme. Gulf States including Saudi Arabia are stalling in their overall relationships. Syria has proved to be a resolute obstacle in the roadmap of Saudi thought and American stance. Russia has dictated terms and conditions by taking over Crimea and provoking protests through their proxies in Ukraine.
Situation in Afghanistan is indicative of coming policy changes. Americans are leaving, at least symbolically. Presidential elections are already over. Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras are at the forefront. Point to note is that as against 45 percent Pashtuns, there are 25 percent Tajiks, 20 percent Uzbeks, 7 percent Hazaras, 3 percent Turkmens and others. In the past 12 years Pashtuns have been pushed to the wall. Almost all the key jobs are now held by non-Pashtuns. Educational level of all others is also much higher than the Pashtuns. Tajiks and Hazaras have a known support of Iran. Upcoming Afghan leadership has a clear tilt towards India. India is already operating 13 consulates along Pak-Afghan border. A serving Major General of Indian Army is stationed at Helmond. Indian army regular units are operating in Afghanistan in the guise of road construction and training of Afghan forces.
American exit coupled with presidential change in Afghanistan can prompt Russians for another warm water expedition. If so, the Russian-Afghanistan-Indian nexus can be extremely dangerous. Iranians will not sit idle also. They may also venture out to fulfil their dreams of Balochistan-Siestan in order to secure the ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas and nullify Pakistan’s advantage of Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara.
On the Eastern side, Indian elections may result in the success of BJP. Hard-core Hindutawa believers may (will) create unprecedented problems for Pakistan. ‘Aman Ki Asha’ may turn into ‘Nirasha’. Narendra Moodi will not spare a moment to let Pakistan suffer if given a chance.
What will Afghan Taliban do? Will Mullah Omar’s call be as effective as before? How will 45 percent Pashtun’s react? Will there be any spring offensive? Will there be another civil war in Afghanistan? How will Americans react to that? What will be Russia’s and China’s stance? If worst comes to worst, what will be Pakistan’s actions/reactions?
It is a pity that our leadership and so called intelligentsia is involved in frivolous discussions and petty matters. Prime time programmes of televisions are littered with pseudo intellectuals and naive anchors. Hours and hours of silly discussions take place with no end solutions or agreements. Is this the time to indulge in such matters? It is the time for the leadership to come forward and show foresight to meet the coming challenges. Mind you, these challenges are right around the corner.
The time is running out fast. A quick and subtle decision is required. Do not break the institutions; it is the time to support each other. It is easier to face a whirlwind but tornados are destructive. Are we ready to face the ‘twister’?