Back from the brink

Better sense seems to have prevailed – for now

Instead of the civilian and military leadership embarking upon a suicidal path of mutually assured destruction, hopefully better sense has prevailed – for now. The recent meeting of the Cabinet Committee on National Security chaired by the prime minister with the top brass in attendance might have saved the day, for the time being at least.

Perhaps both sides have belatedly realized that this is not the time to go for a wrestling encounter. Issues like the TTP’s announcement to end its 40-day ceasefire, the fluid situation in Afghanistan, general elections in India and tenuous relations with Iran make it mandatory on the military and civilian leadership to remain glued to the same page.

It was implicit in the timing of the Nawaz-Zardari meeting that there was a clear and present danger to democracy. If so, from whom?

The utility of the National Security Committee formed last August cannot be overemphasized here. Successive military chiefs lobbied hard for the formation of such a body. But invariably, and for obvious reasons, the politicians strenuously resisted the proposal.

The generals were bullish on the idea of forming an NSC (National Security Council), perhaps with the sole exception of Gen Jehangir Karamat, not for altogether altruistic reasons. They reckoned that the national interest as defined by the military was not entirely safe in the hands of politicians. Hence the NSC was to be employed as a custom-made tool to keep them on a tight leash.

The politicians for precisely this reason opposed the proposed NSC. It was argued that the president, already armed with the power to sack a prime minister under article 58 2(B) of the constitution, would use the forum in cahoots with the military leadership as another check on the powers of the chief executive.

Issues like the TTP’s announcement to end its 40-day ceasefire, the fluid situation in Afghanistan, general elections in India and tenuous relations with Iran make it mandatory on the military and civilian leadership to remain glued to the same page.

Just about to retire in couple of months as COAS in October 1998, Gen Jehangir Karamat went public with his demand for a National Security Council. He also accused Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of pursuing, ‘insecurity ridden policies.’  Heady with his heavy mandate and the fact that he had gotten rid of the Article 58 2(B) and a meddlesome president in the form of Farooq Leghari, Sharif had no qualms in asking for Gen Karamat to hand in his papers.

However, since the exit of Gen Pervez Musharraf in 2008, Pakistan has come of age as a democracy. The NSC has been rechristened as National Security Committee of the Cabinet, is headed by the prime minister with its secretariat in the foreign office building in Islamabad and Sartaj Aziz as the advisor to the prime minister on National Security.

The high level committee’s meeting held on Thursday apart from providing inputs to the government on vital national security issues was hopefully instrumental in diffusing the tensions created by COAS Gen Raheel Sharif’s terse rejoinder, vowing to uphold the dignity of the armed forces.  The statement was an obvious reaction to intemperate remarks made by the defence minister Khawaja Asif in an interview with a private TV channel on top of Khawaja Saad Raqfique’s rants.

According to some reports, the COAS is miffed at the treatment meted out to his erstwhile mentor, Gen Musharraf. Although the body language in the national security meeting was reportedly tense, all relevant issues were discussed.

According to some reports, the COAS is miffed at the treatment meted out to his erstwhile mentor, Gen Musharraf. Although the body language in the national security meeting was reportedly tense, all relevant issues were discussed.

Obviously the fate of Musharraf was beyond the ambit of the meeting, but it remains a bone of contention between the civilian and military leadership. It will have to be sorted out in a one-on-one meeting between the two Sharifs. The sooner it happens the better.

The prime minister a day before meeting the khakis had a high profile luncheon meeting with former president and leader of the main opposition party the PPP, Asif Ali Zardari. Apparently the two leaders vowed to fight against unconstitutional steps and to support each other to strengthen democracy.

It was implicit in the timing of the Nawaz-Zardari meeting that there was a clear and present danger to democracy. If so, from whom? In the final analysis strengthening democracy as the chief executive was on the prime minister’s watch. Even hinting that the khakis were playing war games to undo the system will not sit well with them. It has not worked in the past, and will not work now.

The prime minister should also consider instilling a more business-like style of running the government. The present tentative and ad hoc way of doing things does not instill much confidence.

More importantly, however, the issue of dealing with the TTP was discussed in detail in the meeting. An unabashed policy of appeasement and capitulation pursued by government interlocutors spearheaded by interior minister Nisar Ali Khan has been a major bone of contention between the military and civilian leadership.

Unilateral release of so-called noncombatant prisoners proved to be the proverbial last straw. However, the TTP ‘s policy of asking for the moon and the interlocutors not in a position to deliver has predictably created an impasse.

With a ceasefire no longer in place, the prime minister has rightly directed the military to be on high alert.  A military action in North Waziristan now seems inevitable. In any case notwithstanding the histrionics of the appeasers it was never a question of if but when.

The prime minister himself is on record that talks cannot take place amidst acts of terrorism. Even the interior minister now thinks that talks without a ceasefire are meaningless. In this backdrop the nation should brace itself for a long hot summer confronting the Taliban.

The Taliban matrix is bound to get complicated with the bulk of US forces withdrawing from Afghanistan in the coming months. A growing nexus between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban will create more complications for Islamabad.

The establishment’s policy of considering Afghan Taliban its asset has miserably failed. If the ISI had any leverage with these Taliban it is clear that it is not going to manifest itself in the future set up in Kabul.

It is unlikely that the Taliban will be part of the next government in Kabul. Hence the blowback will be towards Pakistan where in cahoots with the TTP they can wreak havoc in their quest to make Pakistan their Islamic emirate.

Afghanistan has had a successful first round of presidential elections. Whether it is Abdullah Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani, the two top contenders as president in the next round in May, the long-term security deal with the US will be signed and sealed.

It is unlikely that the Taliban will be part of the next government in Kabul. Hence the blowback will be towards Pakistan where in cahoots with the TTP they can wreak havoc in their quest to make Pakistan their Islamic emirate.

In the ongoing general elections in India it is quite obvious by now that the BJP or BJP-led coalition will form the next government, headed by its firebrand leader Narendra Modi. The security committee has done well by reiterating government’s policy of good relations with neighbours based on mutual non-interference.

Better relations with all our neighbours including Iran will be a tough call. For that to happen the military’s obsolete security paradigm will have to be tweaked. The Cabinet Committee on National Security, which should meet more often, is the best forum to debate it.

In this context the prime minister should also consider instilling a more business-like style of running the government. The present tentative and ad hoc way of doing things does not instill much confidence.

Presently there is no full time defence minister nor a law minister and no foreign minister. All these portfolios are important enough to merit full time incumbents.