Are we ready to face it?
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has issued a report last week in its annual conference which is very alarming and needs an urgent consideration. Climate change is a serious debate in advanced countries. It is one of the biggest challenges posing a threat to the people and economies across the world. According to the report, increasing temperature and continuing emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. As a result of global warming the world today suffers around 400-500 natural disasters on average in a year, up from 125 in the 1980s. According to the IPCC assessment report, the evidence of predicted impacts of climate change is slowly unfolding. Crop yield rates are declining in most parts of the world, particularly as a consequence of rising temperatures, while increase in prevalence of climate-induced disease has also been recorded. Another serious threat arising from climate change is the freshwater availability which is projected to decline, especially in large river basins and adversely affect more than a billion people by 2050s.
Climate change is a phenomenon related to greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases absorb radiations and warm the planetary surface. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and ozone are the primary greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere.
Developing countries are the least responsible for the climate change as the world’s least developed countries contribute only 10 percent of annual global carbon dioxide emission. However, the geographical location and socio-economic fragility of most of the developing countries make them more vulnerable to the environmental, social and economic ramification of climate change, and lack of resources and capabilities to adapt to the changes will worsen the situation. The rate of global climate change is projected to be more rapid than any to have occurred in the last 10,000 years. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
Pakistan, despite producing a lot less greenhouse gases, has been among the top ten most affected countries worldwide.
The recent tragic Thar incident in which hundreds of children became victim of hunger and lost their lives is a consequence of climate change; Gyari incident in which about 135 soldiers and civilians lost their lives to an avalanche, the phenomenal floods of 2010 which submerged a fifth of country and displaced millions and changing monsoon patterns are just some of the alerts of the bad days ahead and reminder of the critical role the climatic conditions play in our lives. September 2011 witnessed the most rains ever recorded in southern Pakistan, with monsoon amounts 1,170 percent above normal.
The phenomenon of climate change largely caused by human activity has environmental, political and security implications.
In Pakistan’s context climate change would particularly affect the agriculture sector which is the mainstay of the national economy. The most important potential threat is the increased variability of monsoon which will ultimately affect adversely on our agricultural crop pattern and production, rapid recession of glaciers reducing the capacity of natural reservoirs and increased risks of flood and droughts. Due to increasing water shortage it is feared that this would not only aggravate the economic crisis and increase food insecurity but if unaddressed, it could increase tension with the neighbour countries, particularly India.
Heat stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid region and threat to coastal areas, including the city of Karachi, due to a rise in sea level and increase in cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperature are also attached directly to climate change.
The above threats lead to major concerns for Pakistan in terms of its water, food and energy security. Increased deforestation, loss of biodiversity and increased health risks are other aspects to worry about.
Experts estimate that about a quarter of Pakistan’s land area and half of its population are vulnerable to climate change related disasters. It is also projected that climate change effects could cost Pakistan’s economy up to $14 billion per year.
Forests play a great role in minimising the drastic effects of climate change while we are facing reduced forest area with every coming day. We have only 2% of our land area covering forest as compared to advised 25% area to keep a healthy environment. Unfortunately we have lost our 33% forest area during the last 20 years.
It is estimated that deforestation and degradation accounts for 20 percent of greenhouse gases emission. By these estimates deforestation is second to energy sector in terms of contributing to greenhouse gas emission. The entire transport sector is a smaller polluter in comparison to deforestation.
Another survey found out that only 24% Pakistanis knew what climate change really meant, another 15% had just heard about the phenomenon but didn’t have any further knowledge about it, while 50% had never heard about climate change, making Pakistan one of the least knowledgeable country about climate change.
This state of public awareness sharply contrasts the steps the government claims to have taken to elevate climate change in its sets of priorities. Establishment of Ministry of Climate Change and adoption of National Climate Change Policy and Action Plan was a good initiative but much more needs to be done particularly creating ownership for these initiatives among the public.
Being a developing country Pakistan lacks technical capacity and financial resources to address climate change related issues. We need international cooperation in extensive use of renewable energy, clean coal and advanced nuclear power technologies. Use of mass transit system in cities to avoid carbon dioxide emission, increase in hydropower generation capacity, large scale afforestation and reforestation activities will reduce climate disasters.
UN-REDD &WWF are working all over the world for this purpose. We need to strengthen our skills in this regard. Capacity building and awareness can help to avoid major loss in future.
Effects on climate change needs to be addressed and all remedial measures should be taken on war basis to avoid future destruction. Otherwise we should be ready to face floods, more droughts, incidents like that of Thar, increased temperature and health risks.
