The talks in retrospect

One that lives by sword will have to be dispatched by sword

Talks with the TTP continue amidst terrorist attacks on polio workers, personnel of law enforcement agencies, tribesmen considered to be loyal to the state and common people. Compared to January and February there was a slide in the number of attacks. Nevertheless there were at least two cases with double digit casualties while 18 tribesmen were kidnapped. In a high profile case, militants killed a judge and 10 others.

The issue of the enforcement of Sharia has receded to the background for the time being. This has led Taliban apologists like Imran Khan to claim that it never was the TTP demand. This amounts to seeing what one wants to see. As late as February 8, the TTP spokesman Shahid Ullah Shahid told BBC Urdu website: “The war we are fighting is for enforcement of Sharia… and talks with the government we will be holding will be for the same objective.” What has happened is that a pragmatic TTP has decided to give priority to issues it considers more urgent and essential for achieving the ultimate goal.

What has become amply clear during the current engagement with the TTP is the importance of North Waziristan for the terrorist groups. The drones targeted Mehsud in North Waziristan. The casualties during the air strikes in January and Februaries included key TTP commanders. It is crucial for the TTP to seek concessions in the Agency, and if possible in other tribal areas, that would allow them freedom to move around. A number of TTP commanders are currently in the custody of the law enforcement agencies. Their interrogation has provided leads to the security agencies, particularly in Karachi, that have damaged the terrorist network. The arrest of numerous trained and motivated commanders has had a negative impact on the performance of the TTP. The organization desperately needs their release. The continuation of talks is therefore of crucial importance to the TTP as it provides the network an opportunity to bargain. The network’s silence on the issue of Sharia is a tactical retreat.

The TTP is not likely to forcibly stop other terrorist groups in their neighbourhood from launching attacks on the Shia community, polio workers or law enforcement personnel. Like a good workman they would not quarrel with their tools. The TTP would however hesitate from launching any major attack on army personnel for fear of the type of reprisals which hurt it badly in January and February.

The hopes that the Pakistani Taliban might be brought into the mainstream as allies of the PML-N or PTI are a pipedream. The army has been bled more by those considered as potential assets than by any standing army of a hostile country. The talks will provide no more than a temporary and partial respite. To ensure peace, one that lives by sword will have to be dispatched by sword.