Our challenges now are of an existential nature
A national energy policy was put together in haste by the PML-N soon after it formed government last year. Finalised on June 25, it was presented before the CCI on August 2, which approved it promptly. While it took the government nearly seven months to formulate its security policy the half cooked energy policy was devised in about seven weeks.
With the new energy plan in place, what Nawaz Sharif was supposed to do was to say “Let there be light “ and there would be enough of it not only for power starved Pakistan but also sufficient for export by 2018. Sharif then ordered load shedding to be ended by 2017 and went to rest. As he put it, the new energy policy would turn out to be “panacea of Pakistan’s energy ills.”
For any energy policy to succeed it has to address a number of complex issues. What is more planners have to keep the holistic picture in view, which includes not only technical matters, development of institutional devices, new pricing structures and tackling new sources of power like shale gas and tight gas, but a whole gamut of socio political issues and matters related to foreign policy like ties with India and Iran, the two important neighbours whose cooperation could play a vital role in energy generation.
As things stand improvement of relations with India remains stalled on account of the army which many think wants to keep the pot boiling. The relations with Iran are deteriorating on account of the conflict of interest on the part of the Sharif family which has close ties with the Saudi royalty. A major irritant for Tehran is Islamabad’s about turn on Syria, agreement to provide shoulder fired anti aircraft and anti tank missiles which could tip the balance in favour of rebels fighting against Bashara al Asad.
As things stand improvement of relations with India remains stalled on account of the army which many think wants to keep the pot boiling. The relations with Iran are deteriorating on account of the conflict of interest on the part of the Sharif family which has close ties with the Saudi royalty.
Soon after the announcement of the energy policy, loopholes made their presence felt. It was discovered for instance that while formulating the gas policy, the requirements of the textile industry in the wake of the grant of the GSP plus were not taken into consideration. .
Planning for the future has never been the forte of Pakistani governments, be they civilian or military. The leaders are so absorbed in day to day issues, and in the pursuit of personal, class or party interests that they have little time to plan about major national issues. They tend to go for shortcuts called ‘panaceas’ instead of formulating long gestation policies that may not be of much help in the next elections.
Pakistan has suffered shortages of different kinds in its history. Going down memory lane, one remembers the early years in the country’s life marked by severe food shortages partly on account of smuggling and hoarding and partly due to low production capacity.
People in British India had in fact started having a taste of shortages soon after the start of World War II. These were however successfully managed by the British government through an effective rationing of the goods in short supply. The plan was successful, as with the exception of the Bengal famine, shortages were effectively dealt with.
After the creation of Pakistan rationing in wheat and sugar continued for nearly a decade. The policy however failed to work satisfactorily due to bad administration combined with political cronyism. Wheat shortages under Liquat Ali Khan led to protest marches and the prime minister who was conferred the title of Quailed e Millat by his party was nicknamed by the opposition as Quaid e Qillat. Later Pakistan had to approach the US for wheat in aid which was transported from the port city to the interior in trucks displaying large banners with “Thank you America” inscribed in bold letters. Even when wheat was abundantly available the trading mafia smuggled, hoarded and black marketed the commodity in collaboration with government officials. This showed that the best of plans would fail in the absence of rule of law and good governance
Power shortages came later on when demands from a growing industrial sector and requirements of urbanisation caused frequent power breakdowns. In 1947 Pakistan had two power generating units, one at Malkand in NWFP and the other at Shahdara in Lahore with the total capacity of 60 MW. For a while the country was forced to import power from India. Warsak hydro electric project, completed in 1961, provided some surplus power which made the ruling elite complacent. It was not considered necessary to plan about a distant future. Power was however in short supply soon. Energy generation was to pick up only in 1970’s with the completion of the Mangla and the Tarbela Dams. But this too was soon to become insufficient.
Little power was added to the national grid under Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and General Zia. The military ruler is more to blame as he possessed absolute power, weak political challenges and billions of dollars in foreign aid in the kitty. What is more his rule extended to about 12 years.
Major power shortages occurred under Benazir in 1994 leading her to invite the IPPs to invest in the country. While the IPPs brought new problems, the country was able to temporarily cope with energy shortages.
Like Zia the next military ruler Musharraf too failed to undertake any major venture in energy production despite wielding absolute power and getting enormous dollars for nearly a decade.
Planning for the future has never been the forte of Pakistani governments, be they civilian or military. The leaders are so absorbed in day to day issues, and in the pursuit of personal, class or party interests that they have little time to plan about major national issues.
Today also a lack of vision on the part of the ruling elite deters it from gauging the gravity of the shortages that are to come in its way in the next decade.
Water shortages in days to come might lead to wars. The opposition to the dams persists as the political leadership is seen to be pursuing the interests of one province alone rather than the federation. With the subsoil water level fast going down due to overconsumption and wastage, urban centers like Lahore are likely to become water deficient like Karachi in a few years. There is no water conservation policy.
Urbanisation is fast expanding while there is no plan to develop the required physical and social infrastructure capable of sustaining cities during the present century. Cutting trees to construct new roads for motorists is likely to cause more problems over the decades.
The population is expanding without any effective control with the result that the country may not be able to provide people their minimum needs leading to more radicalisation and increase in crime rate. The government is unwilling to alienate clerics who are out of touch with social reality and oppose family planning in this day and age.
Environmental changes that are fast taking place would not only heighten water shortages but also lead to famines if plans are not afoot to evolve a policy to cope with them. The problem is too gigantic to be dealt with by one country alone. This requires an environment in the region marked by mutual confidence, presently absent.
Do political parties and the establishment have any awareness of the emerging challenges of an existential nature?
