Lull before the storm

Battle royale looms large

The push has come to shove in the first face-to-face talks with the militants. The stark reality that these parleys will not be a piece of cake is slowly but surely sinking in. A sense of optimism bordering on naivety being expressed by various government spokesmen and Taliban sympathizers – in various political and religious outfits – has been replaced with a sense of déjà vu. Intractable problems remain in striking a deal with the TTP.

The militants are tough negotiators and not the rag tag mullahs keen to give a free lunch to the government nominated negotiating committee. Literally holding the state as hostage they are perfectly clear about their goals. On the other hand the government’s peace campaign being spearheaded by interior minister Nisar Ali Khan is confusion worst confounded?

The bureaucrats in the peace committee were hoping for an extension of the ceasefire due to expire Monday for another three months. The Taliban on the other hand very clearly want demilitarization of Waziristan and establishment of a free zone for them. Negotiating from a position of strength, they have point blank refused to set free sons of former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and former Governor Salman Taseer in their custody.

The Taliban need time to regroup whereas the military owing to geostrategic reasons is staying its hand. In any case the all-powerful security apparatus is the final arbiter in the matter.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif soon will have to decide on how to break the present impasse with the Taliban. The irony is that neither the militants on the one hand and the government and the military on the other are sincere about these so-called peace talks. Everyone seems to be buying time for the final battle royale.

The Taliban need time to regroup whereas the military owing to geostrategic reasons is staying its hand. In any case the all-powerful security apparatus is the final arbiter in the matter.

The army insists that it has no non-combatant Taliban prisoners to release. As for those militants who have massacred security personnel or have breached vital military installations, they cannot be freed so easily. In the backdrop of failed peace deals with the militants in the past the demand for withdrawal of troops from Waziristan also is a non-starter.

In any case the charade of negotiating with the terrorists will have to end soon. Past history amply demonstrates that without implementation of a proper counter-insurgency strategy (COIN), talking to the militants already on the rampage will always be from a position of weakness. Hence, under the circumstances wilting under the TTP demands will be virtual capitulation.

In recent weeks two issues have amply demonstrated that despite protestations to the contrary the military and civilian leadership do not see eye to eye on them. Nonetheless in both the cases the khakis have managed to have their sway.

In the final analysis, the military only from a position of strength is the final driver in cutting a deal with the TTP. In this context the present tenuous ceasefire can merely prove to be the lull before the real storm.

A lot of hype is created about the military leadership and the government being on the same page. In a functioning democracy, the military is subservient to the civilian leadership. Hence, its job description is to be on the same page with the civilians.

Not so in a nascent democracy like Pakistan with a long history of military dominance over the state structure. Frequent photo-ops of the COAS Gen Raheel Sharif with the civilian leadership are meant to convey the impression that unlike the past, the military and the government are enjoying a cozy relationship.

But despite the hype, in Shakespearian parlance, something is rotten in the state of Denmark. That said, perhaps on the question of talks with the TTP at least a semblance of a joint strategy seems to be in place.

However some of the Taliban sympathizers within the PML-N ranks can easily ruin this tenuous consensus if the prime minister does not outgrow his penchant for not giving enough attention to detail. In the prequel to the Kargil misadventure in 1999 this very syndrome cost him his job.

Some of the Taliban sympathizers within the PML-N ranks can easily ruin this tenuous consensus if the prime minister does not outgrow his penchant for not giving enough attention to detail. In the prequel to the Kargil misadventure in 1999 this very syndrome cost him his job.

In recent weeks two issues have amply demonstrated that despite protestations to the contrary the military and civilian leadership do not see eye to eye on them. Nonetheless in both the cases the khakis have managed to have their sway.

On the question of granting MFN status to India, at the last moment the item was struck off the federal cabinets’ agenda, on the pretext that the matter will be decided after the Indian general elections. According to government spokesmen, granting MFN status at this stage in the eyes of the BJP led opposition will be tantamount to providing a tailwind to the ruling Congress coalition in the elections.

This is obviously a ludicrously lame excuse. The Federal Minister for Commerce Khurram Dastagir was dispatched in haste to Delhi earlier in the year to clinch the deal before the elections. Now the government obviously under pressure has twisted its own logic in reverse in order to backtrack.

The other day visibly downcast Khurram Dastagir briefed the media in Lahore on how trade with India was a win-win situation for Pakistan. According to him, open trade with our estranged neighbour apart from bringing peace dividends will give a two per cent boost to our GDP.

It was not merely a coincidence that zealots who in the past have served as the cat’s paw of the ubiquitous establishment hijacked Pakistan Day rallies last Sunday. Their hate-filled narrative was transparently anti-India reminding the Muslims that they should have no truck with Hindu infields till the Kashmir issue was resolved.

Gone is his obsession to dominate all institutions, including the military. But as it is becoming increasingly evident, it is difficult to cohabit with the khakis only on their terms.

Take the case of former strongman Musharraf who is comfortably ensconced in the military cardiac institute in Rawalpindi for over two months on the pretext of being treated for an undisclosed heart ailment. Obviously the military is not in a mood that a civilian court should try one of its former chiefs for overthrowing a democratically elected civilian government.

According to some reports the COAS has already conveyed to the prime minster the anxiety of the corps commanders if Musharraf is tried for high treason.

The high drama staged the other day when Justice Faisel Arab heading the three member special court trying Musharraf walked out of his own court – only to return awhile later. The question remains however: how will the special court execute its non-bailable summons tomorrow if the former dictator again refuses to appear before it for being indicted.

Sharif in the past as prime minister has always had tenuous and difficult relations with military chiefs. That is why this time he is perhaps doubly careful not to upset the apple cart.

Gone is his obsession to dominate all institutions, including the military. But as it is becoming increasingly evident, it is difficult to cohabit with the khakis only on their terms. As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they remain the same.