And it’s not just about increasing regional influence
A quick recap: After placement of travel bans as well as freezing assets against a total of 21 officials out of which 13 are Russian and 8 are Ukranian and suspension of Russia from G-8,Washington Post reports more sanctions duly announced by Obama. He declared signing of an executive order, “that gives the United States authority to impose sanctions not just on individuals but on “key sectors of the Russian economy.”
It was a forgone conclusion that pressure on Russia would increase as a result of annexation of Crimea by her. It was also a forgone conclusion that the world will move towards a cold war-like situation much similar to the one between the West and USSR.
How Crimea is going to influence strategic partnerships between different countries and its impact demands some attention. Coming up are talks in Vienna on Iran’s nuclear programme this week between Iran and P5+1 (composed of the five permanent UN Security Council Members excluding Germany). Will Russia be willing to cooperate with other members at this point in time? If not, this will undoubtedly weaken the pressure on Iran and Iran will be less likely to make concessions.
A UPI report quotes Gary Samore, a former senior aide on nonproliferation on the National Security Council in President Obama’s first term, “If President Putin goes ahead with his apparent intention to annex Crimea, we’re going to have to sanction Russia, and they are going to have to retaliate, and it’s really going to screw up the P5-plus-one negotiations with Iran.”
Though Iran will probably refrain from involving in the face off over Crimea, it may well stand to benefit from the existing situation. And Russia may well use the Iran card to ease off pressure on annexing Crimea.
Strategic interests of Russia and Iran intertwine on many tangents. First, both are wary of a returning Taliban government in Afghanistan in the ensuing scenario of departure by the US and NATO forces. Resurrection of Al-Qaeda is not a proposition being relished by either. The NATO and USA have extended military bases stretching towards the East, an unwelcome move for Iran and Russia as it is against the legitimate interests of both the nations relating to security.
Also, reach of USA towards the Caspian Sea region, Central Asia and the Persian Gulf is viewed with extreme distrust by both.
Donald Kirk for Forbes magazine says, “If President Obama can talk of a ‘pivot’ of US military might to east Asia after withdrawing from wars in the Middle East, why should President Putin not envision a build-up of Russian forces too?” But it’s not just about increasing regional influence. Crimea was a part of Russia till 1954 when it was presented to Ukraine by the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev aimed at balancing out the fascists in Ukraine whose numbers threatened to unsettle and destabilize Ukraine. The umbilical cord between Crimea and Russia cannot be ignored.
Russia is not going to buckle down and this is going to pose a challenge for western policies which had had an open playfield since the dissolution of Soviet Russia in 1991. Dmitri Trenin is right in surmising, “A three-dimensional (economic, political and information/cultural) competition with a much stronger adversary will require Russia to mobilize all its available resources. It will also expose the flaws of Russia’s present system. As a result, Russia could either reemerge as a nation with a strong sense of patriotism, or it could break up again.” (Published March 19, 2014 China Daily, USA)
Putin is a strongman who will never hesitate to defend Russia’s interests and who has a categorical objective to reestablish the borders of the former Soviet Union one way or the other.
One can safely predict a renewed Cold War-like scenario developing. Added to this, is the possibility of increasing proxy wars which is a powerful tool of post-Cold War era. Russia will be shopping for new strategic partners. An obvious choice will be China. Both the countries are interested in limiting the US reach in Central Asia. Their trade relationship is an old one. In year 2000 Russia sold 70 per cent of arms it produced to China. The cornerstone of China’s foreign policy has been non-interference in other states, but undoubtedly China fears being surrounded by the west (read the United States).
As a result of the sanctions, which at best is a knee-jerk reaction by USA leading to stronger alliance between Russia and China thereby creating an opposing strong nexus which is exactly what it wishes to avoid; Russia will turn to China. This will run opposite to USA’s desire to contain China in Asia. The US policymakers have unfortunately failed to see the bigger picture here. This will not mean China adopting a path of confrontation with the western powers. It will advance very cautiously, benefiting from the situation but nonetheless, in line with its policy of non-interference in other states. China will carefully watch its step on this one.
Besides China another country walking a tight rope here is India. Both Russia and India have historically enjoyed a good relationship. In light of the episode of Devyani Khobragad, open Russian support can effect relations between the USA and India. Will India be willing to risk a standoff with USA? Or will it risk relations with a weather tested ally? “India will not support any unilateral decision that is taken against Russia”, states Times of India. (Mar 19, 2014)
Relationships between Russia and North Korea can expand in the present scenario in spite of the fact that trade relationships between both are minimal. What favours Russia here is a strong anti-American feeling in North Koreans. This anti-Americanism however has never translated into a healthy trade relationship with Russia. The relationship between Russia and South Korea though, has been much better in terms of trade. If one recalls, in November 2013, a summit meeting between Mr Putin and Ms Park had taken place. It was agreed that South Korean companies, a minimum number of three, will navigate the possibility of investing in Russian Railways joint venture with North Korea. The purpose is to develop the North Korean Port of Rajin and part of railway link to Khasan in Russia. At the same time it was mutually agreed to set up a fund to finance various development projects for cross-border investments worth $500 million.
The object of any leader is to defend the interests of the country he leads. President Traian Basescu of Romania stated, “Putin is a strongman who will never hesitate to defend Russia’s interests and who has a categorical objective to reestablish the borders of the former Soviet Union one way or the other,” Basescu said in an interview for newspaper Adevarul Live yesterday. “Where he can do it with words, fine. Where he can’t, he’ll send in the tanks.”
Putin has just delivered!