And it’s not just about increasing regional influence
A quick recap: After placement of travel bans as well as freezing assets against a total of 21 officials out of which 13 are Russian and 8 are Ukranian and suspension of Russia from G-8,Washington Post reports more sanctions duly announced by Obama. He declared signing of an executive order, “that gives the United States authority to impose sanctions not just on individuals but on “key sectors of the Russian economy.”
It was a forgone conclusion that pressure on Russia would increase as a result of annexation of Crimea by her. It was also a forgone conclusion that the world will move towards a cold war-like situation much similar to the one between the West and USSR.
How Crimea is going to influence strategic partnerships between different countries and its impact demands some attention. Coming up are talks in Vienna on Iran’s nuclear programme this week between Iran and P5+1 (composed of the five permanent UN Security Council Members excluding Germany). Will Russia be willing to cooperate with other members at this point in time? If not, this will undoubtedly weaken the pressure on Iran and Iran will be less likely to make concessions.
A UPI report quotes Gary Samore, a former senior aide on nonproliferation on the National Security Council in President Obama’s first term, “If President Putin goes ahead with his apparent intention to annex Crimea, we’re going to have to sanction Russia, and they are going to have to retaliate, and it’s really going to screw up the P5-plus-one negotiations with Iran.”
Though Iran will probably refrain from involving in the face off over Crimea, it may well stand to benefit from the existing situation. And Russia may well use the Iran card to ease off pressure on annexing Crimea.
Strategic interests of Russia and Iran intertwine on many tangents. First, both are wary of a returning Taliban government in Afghanistan in the ensuing scenario of departure by the US and NATO forces. Resurrection of Al-Qaeda is not a proposition being relished by either. The NATO and USA have extended military bases stretching towards the East, an unwelcome move for Iran and Russia as it is against the legitimate interests of both the nations relating to security.
Also, reach of USA towards the Caspian Sea region, Central Asia and the Persian Gulf is viewed with extreme distrust by both.
Donald Kirk for Forbes magazine says, “If President Obama can talk of a ‘pivot’ of US military might to east Asia after withdrawing from wars in the Middle East, why should President Putin not envision a build-up of Russian forces too?” But it’s not just about increasing regional influence. Crimea was a part of Russia till 1954 when it was presented to Ukraine by the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev aimed at balancing out the fascists in Ukraine whose numbers threatened to unsettle and destabilize Ukraine. The umbilical cord between Crimea and Russia cannot be ignored.
Russia is not going to buckle down and this is going to pose a challenge for western policies which had had an open playfield since the dissolution of Soviet Russia in 1991. Dmitri Trenin is right in surmising, “A three-dimensional (economic, political and information/cultural) competition with a much stronger adversary will require Russia to mobilize all its available resources. It will also expose the flaws of Russia’s present system. As a result, Russia could either reemerge as a nation with a strong sense of patriotism, or it could break up again.” (Published March 19, 2014 China Daily, USA)
Putin is a strongman who will never hesitate to defend Russia’s interests and who has a categorical objective to reestablish the borders of the former Soviet Union one way or the other.
One can safely predict a renewed Cold War-like scenario developing. Added to this, is the possibility of increasing proxy wars which is a powerful tool of post-Cold War era. Russia will be shopping for new strategic partners. An obvious choice will be China. Both the countries are interested in limiting the US reach in Central Asia. Their trade relationship is an old one. In year 2000 Russia sold 70 per cent of arms it produced to China. The cornerstone of China’s foreign policy has been non-interference in other states, but undoubtedly China fears being surrounded by the west (read the United States).
As a result of the sanctions, which at best is a knee-jerk reaction by USA leading to stronger alliance between Russia and China thereby creating an opposing strong nexus which is exactly what it wishes to avoid; Russia will turn to China. This will run opposite to USA’s desire to contain China in Asia. The US policymakers have unfortunately failed to see the bigger picture here. This will not mean China adopting a path of confrontation with the western powers. It will advance very cautiously, benefiting from the situation but nonetheless, in line with its policy of non-interference in other states. China will carefully watch its step on this one.
Besides China another country walking a tight rope here is India. Both Russia and India have historically enjoyed a good relationship. In light of the episode of Devyani Khobragad, open Russian support can effect relations between the USA and India. Will India be willing to risk a standoff with USA? Or will it risk relations with a weather tested ally? “India will not support any unilateral decision that is taken against Russia”, states Times of India. (Mar 19, 2014)
Relationships between Russia and North Korea can expand in the present scenario in spite of the fact that trade relationships between both are minimal. What favours Russia here is a strong anti-American feeling in North Koreans. This anti-Americanism however has never translated into a healthy trade relationship with Russia. The relationship between Russia and South Korea though, has been much better in terms of trade. If one recalls, in November 2013, a summit meeting between Mr Putin and Ms Park had taken place. It was agreed that South Korean companies, a minimum number of three, will navigate the possibility of investing in Russian Railways joint venture with North Korea. The purpose is to develop the North Korean Port of Rajin and part of railway link to Khasan in Russia. At the same time it was mutually agreed to set up a fund to finance various development projects for cross-border investments worth $500 million.
The object of any leader is to defend the interests of the country he leads. President Traian Basescu of Romania stated, “Putin is a strongman who will never hesitate to defend Russia’s interests and who has a categorical objective to reestablish the borders of the former Soviet Union one way or the other,” Basescu said in an interview for newspaper Adevarul Live yesterday. “Where he can do it with words, fine. Where he can’t, he’ll send in the tanks.”
Putin has just delivered!
رکن قومی اسمبلی کے عزیز کے ڈیرے سے مغوی طالبہ بازیاب، زیادتی کی تصدیق
موبائل نمبر رکن اسمبلی چوہدری ارشد جٹ کے نام پر رجسٹر تھا، تفصیلات کیلئے وزٹ کریں
Link here>> http://goo.gl/gQcdfr
Kidnapped student girl recovered in the camp of a relative regarding NA member.(PMLN’s MPA), confirmed rape
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ملائیشین وزیراعظم نے تمام مسافروں کی موت کی تصدیق کر دی۔ مزید جاننے کے لئے وزٹ کریں
Link here>> http://goo.gl/GrsAOq
MISSING MALAYSIAN AIRPLANE FOUND AFTER 17 DAYS
Missing MH370 came down in Indian Ocean
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برطانوی خاتون نےکتے سے ’شادی‘ کرلی
کیا انسان اس حد تک بھی گر سکتا ہے؟
تفصیلات کے لئے کلک کریں
Link here>> http://goo.gl/0s6Ivx
A British woman has married her dog, as she found all traits she looked for in a life partner, in her pet.
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براہ راست میچ دیکھنے کے لئے کلک کریں
Link here>> http://goo.gl/YlZhtY
Watch Live Cricket T20 World Cup Streaming
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وہ چھکے جنہوں نے بھارت کے چھکے چھڑا دیے. دوبارہ دیکھیں اور بار بار دیکھیں
Vdo Link Here:>>> http://goo.gl/aDKbvu The-amazing-SIXES-again.
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یہ ہے مغربی طرز زندگی جہاں ایک رئیلٹی شو میں ایک بہن اپنی سگی بہن کو بھی نہیں پیہچان سکی-شرم کا مقام ہے-ویڈیو دیکھیں
Vdo Link here>> http://goo.gl/Yui0x5
Western Type of Life Girl cant even recognize his sister the simple truth is show-Shame on that Culture-see. –
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اسلام مخالف ویسٹ بورو چرچ کا بانی پادری فریڈ فیلپس جہنم کے سفر پر روانہ
مزید معلومات کے لئے کلک کریں
Link here>> http://goo.gl/Rk81bl
Anti-islam Westboro church founder Fred Phelps Gone to Hell.
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ہالی ووڈ فلم نوح کیخلاف مسلم اور عیسائی متحد
Link here>> http://goo.gl/mfspwp
Christians join Muslims in condemning Russell Crowe's new £75million blockbuster Noah for its portrayal of Biblical figure –
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پاکستان کی ایٹمی طاقت بننے کی وجہ
مزید معلومات کے لئے کلک کریں
Vdo Link here>> http://goo.gl/rDNkA2
Why Pakistan had to become Nuclear Power
It appears that Russia is trying its muscles to expand there may be intentions to go through Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Sea but that is a bit hard Pakistan is a strong military power and with the latest offer from US of $7b military hardware will Pakistan make even more stronger Brains are needed in Pakistan to handle the coming up situation around the country in due course.
About time- Russia is back as a player- Balance of Bullies .
Thought-provoking, as always; suspect Russia acting in desperation; Putin is bent on destabilizing region but may not succeed.
what about the desperation and frustration of USA??? look what they have done in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and the list is endless!!!! Why everybody is pointing their fingers at Russia??? This was all started by USA and now Russia will take the game to another level!!!
Totally agree bipolar world is better than uni polar.. it give us better breathing space..
Excellnt insight into changing alliances as Russia flexes muscle
Remember,Russia didn't forget our role in Afghan war, US,Russia, & India have common strategic interest against us.
This article raises yet again the ghastly spectre of yet another bout of a Cold War.Afghanistan, Taliban, Ukraine to be factored.
Very informative and very well written
spot on..
All this will eventually lead to NATO vs EuroAsia
The impending Cold War will fuel yet another round(s) of multimillion dollar arms purchases, with the poor out in the cold.
Mccarthy and Hoover's influence spanned 45 yrs, resulting in both Vietnam and Afghanistan. Ditto for Sovjets.
Bipolar world was better than toady's unipolar in some aspects.
the rise of Russia along with her alliances with China, India, N Korea etc will probably lead to more of a multipolar world now.
Dear Yasmeen,
I would like to say from the core of my heart that you are an extremely good and prolific writer. Mashallah you can write on many diversified issues with confidence and ease. That is why I appreciate your novel amazing and courageous ideas. Pl. keep up writing for awakening people from their deep slumbers. Kudos! Pl. keep sending me your articles regularly. Thanks.
kind regards,
Shakil Ahmed
M.Phi.Pol.Sci.
Lahore
Its indeed good that, some one has really challenged the Uni Polar World, we experienced has brought much destruction.
V need a rising power to downgrade the USA's occupation all around the world
Great piece Yasmeen
Really good Thanks
Russia willbeshopping for newstrategic partners.Istheir an opportunityfor PakistanHobnobbingof Obma wdMNS at Hague 2 4stall this?
Russia is looking for new strategic partners in the region. This could be a golden opportunity for Pakistan to realign its foreign policy in line with China and Iran. Our present leadership and FO should not get impressed with hobnobbing of Kerry with MNS or co seating of PM with Obama at Hague as US has proved to be a unreliable partner at our crucial moments. A thought provoking write up as usual, Madam. I wish some one in our Foreign Office reads it and comprehend it, too.
Excellent as the piece was, Ajmal's comment is even better. It hits the nail on the head. Sadly, the first steps by the Pakistan Government ($1.5 billion aid/grant from the Saudis reportedly for 'assistance' against Syria) are in diametrically the opposite direction. Shouldn'r surprise anyone.
Very well written and very informative. I guess the clock is ticking, its just a matter of time before Putin get his plan of making USSR alive again. The game has just begun!!!!
Amusing; the manner western media playing dumb to the fact that Russian hand is on the jugular of Europe' energy supplies
Good read on new cold war, xpand it bit to Arab world. may be joint study with next 4 blood moon, involving Israel & Arab world
Dear YAA
Excellent analysis but surprisingly leaving Pakistan out of equation left some thirst in my mouth. I equate Russian Crimean episode with Pakistan's exploding nuclear capabilities in 1998. Our successive leadership came under pressure when it froze foreign accounts immediately after the blasts. Later it showed politico-military disarray by walking into Kargil trap. And still later loosing nerves after 9/11. Would Putin buckle down under pressure with regards to short, mid and long term policy decisions remains to be seen. Most importantly would our leadership take the pressure and uphold the interest of Pakistan in present emerging scenario? Accepting 1.5 billion US Dollars 'gift' was not a wise decision keeping the new upcoming regional and global politics in view.
Kind regards
GA
Now we understand why Kerry and Obama were so friendly to our PM Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif at Hague, Yesterday…….. to prevent Pakistan to go over to Putin's Russia.
Very interesting analysis.
Thank you. It is time the world had another goonda in the world.
Zubair
PUTIN INTENSIVE INTENTIONS FOR REDESIGNING&RE-PROPAGATING THEIR PRAGMATIC PARADIGM WITH PARALLEL SELF-PROCLAIMED NEW WORLD ORDERS
Dear Yasmeen,
It reminded me of Lord Tennyson's famous poem "The Charge of the Light Brigade " that I learnt when I was in High School some 60 odd years ago. Based on the Battle of Balaclava that was fought by the British against the Russians in Crimea on 25th Oct 1854. The British Commander 's plan was to send this Light Brigade in pursuit of the retreating Russian Artillery battery but due to miscommunication in the chain of command the brigade was sent on a frontal assault against a different artillery battery that was well entrenched in a strong defensive position and which resulted in a disaster. 'Thus into the valley of death rode the six hundred.' Therefore by bringing in economic sanctions which will once again bring in the East Versus West confrontation and a renewal of the Cold war–this will only lead to the fight against terrorism being weakened and which in turn will be dangerous both for the US and the Russians. Khrushchev being an Ukrainian had no doubt given Crimea to Ukraine but that was when Ukraine was part of the erstwhile USSR. And going by the same analogy when the Chechians wanted their own state there should have been a referendum to determine their wish too–but Yeltsin sent in his Russian forces instead. The famous Balfour Declaration also gave Palestine to the Jews and we still have a powder keg waiting to explode in that region. Then came the Syrian problem–Earlier it was the Iraq–Iran problem. Therefore it is time I thing for both the US and for Russia to stop sabre and dollar ratting and join hands to make the world a better and a safer place for all to live in And miscommunication at this stage will only lead to more hardships. And one should not forget that Putin is an ex KGB Protege who was propped up by Yeltsin and the Chechians certainly do not like him either.
Regards
Samir.
Everyone cheers a winner, but Putin's victory is short lived. The days of occupation are over. Look what happened to Saddam for occupying Kuwait. In case of Putin, it shall take a little longer, because he has nukes, but his economy is based on oil, and gas, that can be replaced.
I would very much like to see Russia rising again. It has technology and natural resources but has taken too long to recover from its perestroika and glasnost (re-structuring and transparency) that caused the breaking up of USSR. The Soviet fall 24 years ago caused major problems for many countries that had natural resources or a strategic geo-political importance but did not have ability to defend against huge bullies, the US and NATO. Having two superpowers is highly desirable knowing how the US went berserk with their “new world order” right after the Soviet disintegration.
The American war on terror is nothing but an implementation of the American hegemony in a hurry while the sun shines. Under the pretext of 9/11 and bringing justice to bin Laden, they quickly built several military bases in Afghanistan, in the backyard of China and Russia. Using lies and lame excuses invaded Iraq and Libya to control their oil. Killed millions of people, destroyed those countries such that they need a century to recover from the psychological and physical damage caused by the “new world order”. All that became possible because of the uni-polar world in which the only superpower is answerable to no one and no one has the guts to challenge it.
At present, Russia is suffering from government system inefficiencies and a very high degree of corruption – a traditional set back from its communism days. A quick and smooth transition from the old values to new world market challenges could not take place after its 1990 revolution of ‘perestroika’. Nevertheless, it has the potential to become a superpower in the next decade or two. No wonder, the US is in a great haste to impose sanctions against Russia to cause impediment to its economic development. The Americans however, are fully aware that Russia is not Iran that could be easily bullied.
It is not expected that the US and Russia will ever confront directly using their military forces, both know full well that it could destroy both of them and perhaps a major part of the world.
It is essential for the international peace and stability to have the world a bi-polar place. In view of the American hegemony during the last 20 years, it is not a debatable point anymore to claim that the US as a lone superpower is a huge source of world instability and unrest.
Javed
A well researched article on Russia & its new strategic initiatives- Proactive leaders always acts as per states future interests
Look at the bright side mam. At least we all know how to get justice and be heard in the media. Torch yourself 2 DEATH
i disagree with this article's opinion.
Too simplistic and therefore flawed.
Russia took these steps in desperation, no to out-maneuver USA neither to assert itself as global power
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