There is only one decision the former president can really make
March 31 will mark a turning point in Gen Musharraf’s trial. Yet even as his time to face charges or arrest draws near, little has changed about the noise surrounding the case. The government still claims upholding the law and constitution, Musharraf’s legal team openly denounces the trial as politically motivated, and there are conflicting analyses about the army’s position, especially whether failure to show on March 31 might provoke a clash of institutions.
All this time, however, the former president’s options have grown thin. It is now clear that he will not be tried in a military court, nor allowed to visit his mother in Dubai. It is equally clear that the court will not entertain his legal team’s arguments about security anymore. And the arrest threat seemingly implies that he will walk to the court himself on March 31, or be arrested and presented forcefully at the next hearing.
So will he appear?
But it is still not clear if he will appear. His lawyers have recently admitted the no-show strategy was deliberate, despite the long AFIC episode, and health and treatment issues. And they refuse to budge on whether that strategy might have run its course.
“We will cross the March 31 bridge when we get to it”, said Musharraf’s counsel Chaudhry Faisal. “The warrant was not an unexpected development, this trial has been unfair since the beginning”.
This discontent stems, according to Musharraf’s team, form the blatant vindictive nature of the case. The Judges clearly show former CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry’s bias against the former president. And the government’s decision to try him for the Nov 3 emergency instead of the Oct 22 coup also reflects duplicity.
It is now clear that he will not be tried in a military court, nor allowed to visit his mother in Dubai. It is equally clear that the court will not entertain his legal team’s arguments about security anymore. And the arrest threat seemingly implies that he will walk to the court himself on March 31, or be arrested and presented forcefully at the next hearing.
But the government counters that this unprecedented case is its best contribution to democracy yet, and sources close to the N-leadership are convinced the former general will appear on Mar 31. In private conversations they seem confident the army will not go out on a limb for him.
The military understands, they claim, that desperation might push him to trigger a clash of institutions by not going on the 31st. The police will have to arrest him from the AFIC. And while dragging him to prison is not a possibility, having the facility declared another sub jail, like his farmhouse, will force the army to play a reactionary role. All things considered, N’s inner circle believes, the general is on his own.
History teaches us
Yet even as Musharraf’s popularity, and significance, drops to an all time low, the degree of the N-team’s conviction, especially regarding the military’s position, is not shared by many.
“History teaches us that such landmark cases must always be based on justice”, said Khurshid Kasuri, foreign minister in Gen Musharraf’s presidency and senior leader with the PTI. “If you must really set a precedent, then justice must be the only concern, otherwise it will look like political targetting”.
Since the government’s official argument for initiating this trial was setting a precedent that does not allow subversion of the constitution again, Kasuri also believes it would have been more prudent to try Musharraf for the Oct 12 coup. That is because high profile trials that prove politically motivated do not set precedents, rather create more controversy, like the Bhutto trial, which was never accepted as fair.
“And even if they could adequately explain why they didn’t consider the ’99 coup, they should have involved everybody in the Nov 3 emergency decision for justice to be delivered”, he added.
Gen Musharraf was known to have a ‘Napoleonic failing’ during his time in power – the folly of fighting on multiple fronts at the same time. He was, often at the same time, busy with fights in FATA, Balochistan, Islamabad (Lal Masjid), against the judiciary, and the media, not to mention keeping political opponents in exile.
“It seems the government miscalculated on many occasions, especially on the military’s position. Perhaps it would have been easier to have the army on its side if the official narrative seemed one based on demands of justice”.
Some observers have also criticised Musharraf’s high-profile legal team for complicating his case. Their in-court antics have, on occasion, brought embarrassment to him. But it seems all this time they have been playing for time. And however much they tried to call the court’s integrity into question, their efforts have so far failed to spark popular concern that two institutions, executive and judiciary, might be trying one man for treason, which carries the death penalty, out of personal enmity.
Gen Musharraf was known to have a ‘Napoleonic failing’ during his time in power – the folly of fighting on multiple fronts at the same time. He was, often at the same time, busy with fights in FATA, Balochistan, Islamabad (Lal Masjid), against the judiciary, and the media, not to mention keeping political opponents in exile. It may well be that some players of those days are now ganging up against the former strongman purely out of revenge.
But that means that even those closest to him during the good days now seem to have abandoned him. His former King’s party chief and (briefly) Prime Minister Ch Shujaat perhaps described the main reason for this dilemma best when he said the former president was simply “heavy baggage”. He has only one front to fight on this time though, and only one of two decisions to make on Mar 31 – whether to go on his own, or be taken by force.