Modi’s rise is precisely because he represents decisive government that generated economic rewards for Gujarat
Former prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao used to tell a story about the presidential election of 1982. Mrs Indira Gandhi was back in power with an amazing victory after the traumatic defeat of 1977. The choice was in her gift. At the top of every conventional list was Rao; the outsider was Giani Zail Singh, her earthy home minister.
On the eve of decision-day, Rao set off on some obscure foreign tour. A surprised Giani told Rao that surely this was the wrong time to leave Delhi. Rao replied: If Mrs Gandhi wanted him, she would summon him back from Timbuktoo or Iceland. If she didn’t, he might be sitting in her drawing room and she would not see him.
Those who have rushed to Delhi for party tickets might find this tale instructive. There is some luck involved, of course, for politics is a human business, and where there is human destiny there will be stars and birth charts. But the substantive reality is that the process is less personal than even seasoned supplicants suppose.
The basic question does not change: who can win? But the answer does. It is dynamic, and roams across multiple options to rest upon the most useful signal to an electorate, mainly at micro level, which is the constituency demographic; and sometimes at the macro, which is the larger mix in national space. There is no perfect fit. But there can be only one candidate in a seat. If Narendra Modi, who is delivering for BJP in spades, can face questions over a nomination from Uttar Pradesh, surely no candidature can be considered etched in stone.
For BJP, the central message of 2014 has two principal elements: a credible promise to lift India’s economy out of the doldrums of paralysis, and the assurance that it will be an inclusive force that reaches out to all segments of the nation. This is the necessary evolution from popularity to governance. Popularity is possible from negative factors, like rage against an existing establishment; but governance is fashioned by a positive agenda. You are elected by most of the people; you rule for all the people.
For BJP, the central message of 2014 has two principal elements: a credible promise to lift India’s economy out of the doldrums of paralysis, and the assurance that it will be an inclusive force that reaches out to all segments of the nation.
Narendra Modi’s popularity is no longer in question. Those interested in trends more than personalities need go no further than check the migratory patterns of politicians this year. The flock is moving, piecemeal but unerringly, largely towards BJP. Congress is frozen at the centre, while it cracks across the rim. Even senior Congressmen like P Chidambaram can hear the bell toll, and are reluctant to contest from personal bastions.
Five years ago, they would have swatted away any ambitious interloper; this year, sons are being offered for rite-of-passage sacrifice so that the seat remains within the family fold in 2019. Other leaders are looking for safer seats in a market that does not have any. Some ministers are busy doing their farewell vanity interviews. A few realistic ones are trudging to their constituencies, aware that their chances range from nil to zero. In a Congress state like Haryana half the MPs do not want to contest again. Perhaps they have double-checked with bookies, who have to put their money where their assessments are. They are placing the Congress tally in double digits. The only states where the demand for Congress nominations is enthusiastic are Kerala and Assam, although the latter is going to be tougher than the party reckons.
The reason is uncomplicated. In every corner of the country, including those where BJP has no chance, there is a tremendous thirst for a functioning government. This cuts across traditional divides such as caste. The only voters still apprehensive of BJP are Muslims, but most Muslims too are as utterly tired as anyone else of the ineffective mirage that was Congress-led UPA. Indians have paid a huge price for vacuous administration. Every loss of one per cent in economic growth added crores of Indians to the misery index. According to one estimate, UPA has rejected or stalled some 750 infrastructure projects. Convert that into number of jobs aborted, and you can begin to gauge the street mood. Modi’s rise is precisely because he represents decisive government that generated economic rewards for Gujarat. When Modi talks of a hundred new cities that will need new, job-fertile steel plants and cement factories, or when he talks of 24-hour electricity, it makes sense because he has delivered.
Governance now comes with an adjective: stable. Non-BJP fronts have collapsed before construction. And when stand-alone Arvind Kejriwal threatens to send journalists to jail, and denies his remarks despite video evidence, then he has lost composure because he is losing support.
Narendra Modi has sorted out the queues of voters for this general election; but he still has to sort out the queue for tickets.