US and Russia square off on the Ukraine issue
If better judgment fails to prevail political brinkmanship by the US and Russia, it could bring the world back to the Cold War era. The confrontation on the issue of Ukraine has to be brought down with both sides yielding ground.
Ukraine, a country ethnically, linguistically and religiously divided needed a political leadership that had patience and flexibility to maintain the unity of the country that became an independent state only 23 years back. There being no tradition of democracy in the country, social contradictions that could have been resolved amicably were made intractable by opposing political forces which tried to force their will on their opponents. Thus former President Victor Yanukovych arrested and jailed his political rival Yulia Tymoshenko and persecuted her followers. This led to unrest and a movement against the government which gradually turned violent. This was followed by unruly mobs controlling the streets and deciding issues they had no authority to take up.
The government sought support from Russia while the opposition appealed to Washington and Europe for help. One had hoped the foreign powers would give priority to overall strategic concerns over their domestic politics. One side forgot that Ukraine had for centuries been a part of Russia. Further that over 90 per cent population of Crimea is Russian speaking. It would therefore be harmful for the unity of the country if attempts were made to make it a part of a camp seen to be hostile to Russia. Similarly, Moscow should have realised that it would be counterproductive to disregard the democratic aspirations of the people of Ukraine.
The referendum in Crimea has shown that over 90 per cent population wants to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. A referendum is an established practice in democracies to know the aspirations of a community claiming separate nationhood. There are however two valid objections to the exercise in Crimea. One, that there is no provision in the Ukrainian constitution for referendum and the second that it was conducted in the presence of Russian troops. Technical objections apart, the referendum leaves no ambiguity about the wishes of the population of Crimea.
Putin needs to realise the extent of Russia’s isolation on the issue. It was the only country in the Security Council to oppose and veto the resolution. Russia would therefore do well to abstain from any military adventure in Ukraine. The US and EU need to realise the long term consequences of the initiation of a new Cold War.
Both sides need to agree on a solution that keeps the country united as well as neutral. For this the warring sides of politicians in Ukraine have to be encouraged to jointly work out a constitutional solution that ensures the country to be a genuine federation with federating units enjoying maximum autonomy.