Not much headway expected for a year or two
The road to peace between India and Pakistan is filled with potholes. Successive governments on both sides have tried to improve relations between the two countries. Whenever formal negotiations backed by backchannel diplomacy promised a breakthrough, something happened that foiled the efforts. That desire for peace was expressed not only by moderate and democratic governments like those of the PPP and Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan and Congress in India but also by military ruler Pervez Musharraf and Hindu nationalist leader Vajpayee, indicates that despite the presence of extremist fringes there is an across the board desire for peace in the two countries. Equally important is the fact that despite marginal achievements these efforts failed to achieve any historic landmark.
In Pakistan the urge for peace is shared by all mainstream parties. Another positive development is that the ineffectual peaceniks that originally comprised the peace lobby have been replaced by powerful forces like a strong section of the business community that sees improvement of relations as being in the country’s interest. The traditional opposition that came from the military has somewhat weakened on account of the new threat of terrorism but still continues to assert itself. The extremist elements in Pakistan along with a section of the religious parties with miniscule following are opposed to peace. This is seen by many to be enjoying the patronage of the military establishment. While the army may not be against peace, it definitely is more cautious than the mainstream parties towards normalistaton. Unless there is a consensus between the mainstream parties to keep a check on the military it will continue to cast a shadow on Pak India relations.
While in the past the military in India exerted influence from the background, letting defence minister to speak on its behalf, it is becomingly increasingly vocal and assertive in matters related to Pakistan. The strong reaction from Indian army chief on border killings and suspension of talks last year is an example. Manmohan Singh was committed to peace but will Narendra Modi too display similar enthusiasm for talks? The Indian business community, which plays an effective role in Indian politics, is keen to develop ties with Pakistan. The community had supported Congress before but is backing Modi now. What remains to be seen is if it would succeed in drawing Modi away from his nationalistic agenda to give more importance to the country’s economic and trade needs that require friendly relations with Pakistan. Another factor in peace talks in days to come would be the role of Indian media which is more prone to kicking up chauvinism than its Pakistani counterpart.
It is hard to conceive of any significant move in Pak-India relations till elections in India are over and the new government is firmly in seat. The issue therefore is likely to remain on the back burner for a year or two.