Taliban cease fire but March is critical!

• TTP spokesman says militants will cease fire for a month to ‘break deadlock in peace talks’
• Says all factions of terror outfit have agreed to stop attacks, hopes govt will respond positively
• Sources say Nawaz likely to ask Gen Raheel Sharif to halt surgical raids
• Maj Amir says govt and Taliban should talk directly now 

As Pakistan’s civil and military establishments ponder over a long-awaited military offensive in the tribal areas, particularly North Waziristan Agency, the banned terror outfit Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan on Saturday announced that it was willing to cease fire for a month “to break the deadlock in talks with the government” and expressed “the hope that the government would give a serious consideration to the decision and move positively on the dialogue process”.

TTP spokesperson Shahidullah Shahid, in a statement issued from an undisclosed location said that his organisation has decided for a ceasefire “in greater interest of Pakistan”. “The TTP Shura and our ameer Mullah Fazlullah have taken this decision and all factions are bound to follow the order so that the dialogue process can move forward,” he said.

The half-page long press release, written in Urdu, said that the Government of Pakistan had given a positive response to the Taliban’s demands, and they hoped that the talks process would move forward keeping aside all political considerations.

Sources said that earlier on Saturday, Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan had telephoned Taliban committee head Samiul Haq, who is in Madina these days, to discuss the situation. Sami told Nisar that the TTP had accepted the demands of the government’s negotiating team and were going to announce a ceasefire later in the day.

“Chaudhry Nisar termed the TTP decision a ‘good omen and assured Sami that the government would give positive respond to this gesture,” said the source, adding that the government and Taliban committees would meet in the next two days to discuss the future course of the dialogue.

Sources said that after the development, government’s committee member Irfan Siddiqui telephoned Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar and exchanged views over the Taliban announcement.

Sources said that Prime Minister Sharif had welcomed the Taliban decision and was likely to announce a halt to the surgical airstrikes after discussing the matter with army chief General Raheel Sharif.

The military launched aerial and ground raids on terrorists’ hideouts in the tribal areas after the Mohmand Taliban announced that they had executed 23 Frontier Corps personnel to avenge the killings of their colleagues by security forces.

Sources said that Major (r) Muhammad Aamir from the government’s side and Maulana Yousuf Shah from the Taliban committee had played an important role in the announcement of the unconditional ceasefire by the Taliban.

Commenting on the development, Major (r) Aamir suggested that direct talks should now take place between the government and the Taliban, saying it was “high time for taking and making important decisions”.

“I do not see any relevance now for the government committee as we have succeeded to convince the Taliban to come to the negotiation table and declare ceasefire,” Aamir said. “I have suggested having the army, the governor, the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the interior minister involved in the dialogue,” he added.

Defending his suggestion, he said since certain sensitive issues would come under discussion in the next phase, it should be carried out by the government and other decision-making institutions. “Their involvement is a must as to what to decide and when to decide,” he argued.

“We now need serious efforts to make the process successful. The army should now be in the driving seat,” said the government interlocutor.

MILITARY ACTION ON THE CARDS:

On the other hand, security and defence analysts are sceptical of the Taliban announcement for a ceasefire, saying it was likely that the militants had taken the decision as part of its strategy to regroup or retreat in wake of an imminent army offensive in North Waziristan in March.

The ground offensive is expected within weeks after hush-hush visits by top US officials in recent days.

Airstrikes targeting hideouts belonging to the Pakistani Taliban have killed dozens of suspected militants in North Waziristan since late last week.

The raids came just days after a quiet trip to Pakistan by CENTCOM chief Gen Lloyd Austin on February 19. CIA Director John Brennan was in Islamabad on February 21.

Analysts said that the daily strikes by army helicopter gunships and fighter jets are intended to build momentum ahead of an attack involving thousands of troops.

“A ground offensive by the military in North Waziristan is on the cards sometime in the middle of March,” said a security official, asking not to be named.

Daniel S. Markey, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, told NBC Brennan and Austin’s meetings at the military headquarters in Rawalpindi suggested high level of cooperation with Washington.

“A North Waziristan campaign is something the US has been pushing for, for years,” Markey said.

Markey pointed out that Waziristan is also home to the dreaded Haqqani Network of Afghan militants.

The Haqqanis have long used Waziristan as a sanctuary, allegedly with protection from the Pakistani state, raising the question of whether that group will be targeted during the looming ground offensive.

The Pakistani Taliban have an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 hardened fighters in North Waziristan, according to a military officer.

Many previous attempts to dislodge militants from the area have been unsuccessful, according to Gareth Price, a senior research fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank.

“Since 2004 and 2005 you’ve had campaigns that haven’t been holistic or coordinated,” he said. “Often they just look like a facade with people firing mortars at empty mountainsides because the insurgents have moved on to the next tribal area, ready to return when the army leaves.”

Major General Asim Bajwa, spokesperson of the military’s Inter-Services Public Relations, said that “over 150,000 troops are committed to fighting the insurgency in the tribal areas, compared to less than 100,000 on the Indian border, which reflects our resolve about how seriously we are taking this new, internal threat.”

Bajwa added: “Over the years, we have cornered the terror elements … in North Waziristan. Now, all we have to do is mop them up.”