Perception vs. reality
Notwithstanding the histrionics of Taliban apologists in the media, for all practical purposes the so-called peace process has been literally blown to smithereens. The government and the TTP delegations can still go through the motions but repeated terrorist attacks by the militants have practically killed the process.
The government team is appealing to the good sense of the Taliban to stay their hand, begging for a ceasefire. However the terrorist outfit is in no mood to oblige. Contrarily, it is demanding withdrawal of the military from S. Waziristan and release of prisoners allegedly held by the security forces. It has brazenly accepted responsibility for slaying 13 policemen in a terrorist attack in Karachi.
While the TTP detects a patina of sympathy for its demands in Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, it considers the military as its enemy. A correspondent with a large media group who has never hidden his proclivity towards the Taliban claims while quoting unnamed sources that the military and the civilian government are not on the same page on the peace talks.
Obviously the manner in which the Taliban are wreaking havoc in the country reflects that they have little faith in the peace talks and are simply buying time before the final push comes. Apprehending an army operation against them, their spokesman has declared that the military is their number one enemy.
Despite the obvious, the government committee headed by Irfan Siddiqui is begging the Taliban for an interview. The TTP is however obliging him through its incessant campaign of rampant terrorism. A joint statement by the negotiating committees on Friday called on the TTP to end acts of violence and instead work for implementation of peace.
The trilateral summit and the COAS Raheel Sharif’s presence over there might have strengthened the TTP’s perception that action against them is only a matter of time.
This is an insult to the Pakistani nation. An immediate cessation of terrorist activities by the Taliban should have been a sine qua non for any talks. In the interregnum no talks should take place.
Hitherto the Taliban have played their cards well. Through a largely sympathetic media buttressed by their apologists in the government they are controlling the agenda as well as the narrative.
Some one tweeted the other day that paradoxically it is a relief to watch the official PTV. At least it is not being dominated by clerics like Maulana Aziz, the former khateeb of Lal Masjid and his ilk pontificating on how the Pakistani nation should be living under the dominance of his brand of Sharia.
The narrative on most of the news channels is the same like the bearded discussants hopping from one channel to the other. We are being told that the only alternative left for the state is to capitulate by agreeing to the demands of the militant outfits.
The alternative, we are told, in unequivocal terms is horrendous. The Taliban have spread their tentacles all over the country. And hence the war on terror is simply not winnable.
The PTI chief Imran Khan, another Taliban apologist, has quoted the former COAS Gen (Retd.) Ashfaq Kayani while still in office as having said in a briefing that there is only a forty per cent chance of defeating the Taliban through military means. Kayani was also very fond of quoting in the context of the Americans that, “they (the US) have the watches and the Taliban have the time.”
This is an insult to the Pakistani nation. An immediate cessation of terrorist activities by the Taliban should have been a sine qua non for any talks. In the interregnum no talks should take place.
One does not know what Gen Kayani had exactly said to Imran Khan and in what context. Nonetheless prime facie, it is a defeatist statement coming from the chief of the fifth largest standing army of the world for whose upkeep the taxpayers have paid through their nose for 67 years.
Hopefully the same ostrich-like attitude will not afflict the military under Gen Raheel Sharif. Gen Kayani as the army chief had on more than one occasions said that terrorism was an existential threat to the Pakistani state.
Despite this assessment, he never walked the talk. Not much was done to shift focus from the eastern borders to the real and present danger on the western borders.
On the contrary efforts to keep the pot boiling with India never ceased. Banned jihadists groups operating under a different nomenclature are still operating within Pakistan with impunity. Maulana Masood Azhar, freed by the Indian government in exchange for passengers on a hijacked Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar in 1999, has resurfaced recently in Muzzafarabad (Azad Kashmir).
Without a major paradigm shift by the military and the political leadership, the war on terror simply cannot be won by half-hearted and tentative measures. Chickens have come home to roost. Supporting jihadists groups for India-centric agendas is no longer a feasible option.
Mian Nawaz Sharif should get his act together. He should outgrow the perception that he wants to preserve his domain in Punjab at the expense of the rest of the country.
As the conjecture goes, Punjab is a safe haven for various Punjab-based terrorist organizations. Warning by certain pro-Taliban journalists that in case of an operation, terrorist groups based in the heartland will wreak havoc in Punjab is thus possibly correct. But does that mean that the country should not be saved from an existential threat?
A perception is being deliberately created that the government and the military are not on the same page. The prime minister should take the initiative to clear the air – lest the perception becomes reality.
Meanwhile the enigmatic Afghan president Hamid Karzai on the conclusion of the trilateral summit between Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan in Ankara has reportedly assured Islamabad that the TTP leadership holed up in Afghanistan will soon be expelled from there.
Too good to be true. The wily Afghan president many a times in the past has backed off from his commitments to Islamabad. Nonetheless if he keeps his word this time, the TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah will be robbed of his sanctuary in Kunar.
The trilateral summit and the COAS Raheel Sharif’s presence over there might have strengthened the TTP’s perception that action against them is only a matter of time and the so-called peace talks initiated by the government is simply a ruse.
Things are inexorably moving towards a military operation against the TTP with all its appended ramifications. By going through the motion of talks, Sharif understandably wants to forestall the intensity of the blowback as well as keep the rabid right part of his main constituency at bay.
Still the Taliban campaign of mayhem continues unabated. The security forces, police and the ordinary citizen, none is spared. Hence come what may the civilian and the military leadership will soon have to bite the bullet – somewhat in the literal sense.
Meanwhile a perception is being deliberately created that the government and the military are not on the same page. The prime minister should take the initiative to clear the air – lest the perception becomes reality.
Aren't you repeating yourself in this article? And in a previous article you were against ex-President (retd ) Musharraf, Now have you changed your opinion? Don't you agree that he has been proved right and that he would have handled this critical moment when the very existence of Pakistan is at stake with his 'Pakistan First' motto more capably??
General Musharraf prior to 9/11 had acted against private militias. He is the one who started building checkposts in SWA and had no soft corner for mullahs. He sure have handled the situation. At least, bowing down to taliban and mullahs is not an option. I can see how Madrassas and Mosques were under observation during Musharraf;s regime and how 'chanda for taliban' is being collected in all major mosques in the city. Where is the Government? Or you're still interested in licking 'democracy icecream?'
Lal Masjed militants were armed during tenure of Musharraf and in vicinity of intelligence agencies. Had they intervened in time, the mayhem that occurred could have been avoided. The mullahs of Lal Masjed were the real culprits, not the poor students. It would have been far better to lay siege of premises, till their rations dried out and water supply cut off, so that security forces could enter, evacuate young boys and girls, and taken the mullahs to task. We are reaping harvest of the seeds sown by military adventurers like Zia and mush, not just viz a viz TTP, but in Balochistan Nd Karachi. What is needed is enforcement of Writ of Laws and offenders given exemplary punishments. Can somebody explain why Mullah Aziz was hired by CDA?
Notwithstanding what government says about the importance of negotiations with TTP, one pertinent question that needs answering why is there any need for negotiation in the first place? If the answer is to ensure peace and security in Pakistan, then it is simply an admission on the part of government that as they have been unable to secure peace and security in the battle ground now they want to achieve it on negotiation table. Simply put, government wants TTP to present them with their terms of peace as victors.
And if state can defeat TTP but using negotiations to delay final settlement until NATO completes its drawdown from Afghanistan, it simply means that tried, tested and failed policy of strategic depth is still the central plank of Pakistan's foreign and defense policies. So if some fear -and signs of this fear are very much evident on the grounds of Muzafferabad, AJK- return of violence in Kashmir then this fear is not far fetched.
My personal gut feeling is that Pakistani state can not defeat Islamists in the long run, not because they do not have weapons to do so it is because the inherent contradictions upon which the whole structure of this state is built upon. They are doomed if they negotiate with TTP and they are doomed if they fight with them. By negotiating they can only delay the outcome.
If the mullahs can negotiate peace with the TAliban and avoid this war it will be wonderful…and then the mullahs can return to their mosques and start preaching peace for all instead of death to the infidel…pardon me if I am somewhat skeptical…
This forty percent scenario is going to be quoted for along time to come. Was it a classified briefing to Imran if not the now ex COAS should have told the public directly. The worlds fifth largest army was incapable of delivering goods—period. What a shame when the major part of our GDP is spent on defence.. PM Shariff who has over thirty years of experience in politics became the PM for the third time but has shown by his actions nothing but inexperince. Getting elected was the easiest part but the perecption of incompetency has become a reality which the TTP has exploited. Allready the Chief Minister who happens to PM 's brother had requested TTP to spare Panjab. While we have a tourist PM we have another incompetent Interior Minister who does nothing but appoint one committee after another and creates incompetent people into VIP's. The Govt. has declared a unilateral cease fire and the TTP has used this to rest, regroup, rearm and continue it's savagery. It is certainly encouraging for them to know that there is only forty percent chances of their defeat. I shudder to think what the new COAS has to say ? After all he is still cutting his teeth into the job .Imran if you have told us the truth it hurts and one can only hope the Army will be better than forty percent. The Indians must be loving this. What a unkind cut or a betrayl.
Sometime, I laugh at our analysts, political and defence expertise who used to oftne blame only TTP and their mind set for áll bloodshed in the country. They used to sit on differetn TV shows and start discussing this and that against TTP and their terrorists activities. Why dont they openly speak and condemn with full force and strength agaist those hidden forces (India, USA, SAudi etc) active in the country who used to supply them intelligence, amunition and other terrorstis equipment. What a joke in this country since USA dollars keep your mounth shut. Personal trade/business interest with India keep your mounth shut. Accept, that our political and defence elite is coward, Munafiq and suipport personal interests while national interests and Pakistan is on the brink of catastrophy.
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