Few would hazard a guess regarding its continuity
While Pakistan finds no mention in Barack Obama’s State of the Union address, the speech lays down his administration’s policy on a number of issues that concern Pakistan – some directly, others indirectly.
Despite Osama bin Laden having been eliminated his ghost continues to haunt the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa. Obama has preferred not to mention Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistan despite their presence having been noted by several US officials. By maintaining that Al Qaeda affiliates and other extremists ‘in different parts of the world’ continue to cause grave concern to the US, Obama has discretely sent a message to Islamabad also.
As the US plans to quit Afghanistan by the end of this year, Washington would prefer to keep a small force to carry out in the country the twin missions of training and assisting Afghan forces, and counterterrorism operations in pursuit of the remnants of Al Qaeda. Another mission not mentioned by Obama but detailed by New York Times early this week is ‘to monitor and respond as quickly as American forces can if there were a crisis in the region, such as missing nuclear material or weapons in Pakistan and India.’ Even if forced to take resort to the zero option of pulling out all troops Obama remains determined not to allow the terrorists to launch attacks at the US from anywhere in the region.
Drones still remain the weapon of choice for the US to deal with the terrorist threat and will remain so in the years to come. The US in fact is developing more sophisticated and effective versions like the MQ-9 Reaper. Taking note of public resentment in countries subjected to drone attacks, Pakistan being the foremost amongst them, Obama has for the first time displayed a modicum of sensitivity and promised to impose ‘prudent limits’ on the use of drones. What these limits are remains unspecified.
Obama has also made important revisions in the US war doctrine. This was necessitated partly by the increasing domestic opposition to military adventures. Another vital factor behind the change however is the US financial crunch. America has financed its recent wars not by raising taxes which would have made the wars unpopular but by continuing to solicit foreign loans thus turning itself into the biggest debtor in the world. That there is a limit to borrowing was borne out by the federal government shutdown in 2013 caused by the Republican’s refusal to allow rise in debt ceiling.
So henceforth there is to be no large scale deployment of US troops abroad. Obama has defended a peaceful resolution of the nuclear dispute with Iran despite opposition by Israel and the US neocons. In the case of Syria chemical weapons are being eliminated not through war but diplomacy. The world would welcome the pacifism forced by circumstances on the US though few would hazard a guess regarding its continuity.
