Nine weapons? Rahul needs a tenth: luck

No recipe works without salt. Salt is luck

M J Akbar

If you were cooking up a formula for an ideal prime minister, the mixture would surely be a base of Solomon’s wisdom, with one ladle of Alexander’s strategic skills, topped off by the confidence of David, who slew heavily armed giants with a single sling-shot. But no recipe works without salt. Salt is luck.

The luckiest thing that happened to Narendra Modi on his way to 2014 was the spectacular implosion of Nitish Kumar from putative national hero to regional has-been. Imagine the chaos if Bihar’s CM was still in NDA. Media and public attention would have concentrated on stiletto thrusts of this civil war far more than the broad sweep of a BJP-Congress conflict. Rahul Gandhi would not need to attack Modi; Nitish could have done this work more effectively.

Nor could Modi have done much about it; the BJP would not have dared to break its government in Bihar. Nitish did Modi a huge favour by walking away unilaterally. Whoever advised Nitish to march towards Delhi in single file deserves Modi’s personal gratitude.

Has Modi been equally lucky in finding Rahul Gandhi as his presumptive opponent? Do not answer too quickly. The jury will bring in a verdict only around April and May. Rahul Gandhi has one advantage: after being overestimated for too long, he could be underestimated now.

Ironically, even his own Congress is nervous. It has opted for a heads-I-win-tails-you-lose strategy: if the general election goes well, Rahul can take credit. But if Rahul’s appointment turns out to be a disappointment, there is an alibi ticked away in every spokesman’s pocket.

The excuse that Congress has never declared a candidate is just that, an excuse. In fact, Congress has never fought an election without clarity about its PM nominee: even in 2004 it was Mrs Sonia Gandhi who was the undisputed leader, which is why she went to the president to claim the right to head a coalition that year.

The thin veil of protection draped around Rahul is fiction. The Congress campaign for 2014 will be around him, visually and thematically. A teaser has already been floated, starring Rahul Gandhi’s nine weapons against corruption, plus three extra free gas cylinders for those within the middle class who remain unimpressed. This is where Modi gets lucky. Congress has chosen its weakest flank from which to launch its counter-offensive. All Modi has to do to blunt the nine weapons is mention Robert Vadra.

Corruption opens space for needle questions. Sample: Where was Crusader Rahul holidaying in the decade of Commonwealth loot, spectrum gifts and cozy coal mine deals? Or indeed during the Congress government somersaults over Adarsh to protect Congress bosses? Why does it take the last session of this Parliament to introduce legislation that could have come in the first?

Corruption is a slippery slope for anyone in power. Congress should have stuck to its familiar narrative of populism and stability, for such advertising can be backed by evidence. The parallel assault on Modi’s persona could also boomerang, since the electorate considers his can-do-must-do methods to be strength rather than weakness.

Only one prime minister organized his own luck: Jawaharlal Nehru. The self-effacing (if steely) Lal Bahadur Shastri was not the most obvious successor in 1964. Mrs Indira Gandhi would not have become PM if Shastri had not died of a premature heart attack in Tashkent in January 1966. As for Morarji Desai in 1977, it needed an Emergency and vast public upheaval to give him the job he so desperately wanted. He lost the chair to Charan Singh in 1979 thanks to the betrayal and antics of a vaudeville political turncoat like Raj Narain. Mrs Gandhi’s assassination made Rajiv Gandhi PM in 1984. VP Singh got the job in 1989 thanks to a misalliance that could never work; while Chandra Shekhar required hodge to marry podge in 1990. Narasimha Rao was packing for retirement when Rajiv Gandhi’s tragic death renewed Rao’s trust in astrology. Deve Gowda and Inder Gujral were unexpected beneficiaries of a fractured parliament, and Atal Behari Vajpayee first got the job for a fortnight. No one, of course, was luckier than Dr Manmohan Singh.

Ever wondered why the PM’s official residence is situated on Delhi’s Race Course Road? Because it’s a horse race, of course. Enter only if you have pace, staying power, solid training and a proven track record. The difficulty is not the starting bell, but that long and arduous home stretch, when character is tested along with your ideas. Media is only the bookie of this show. Follow the odds, but remember they can change mid-race too. Above all, arrange for the stars of the zodiac to be on your side. Good luck!