The year of living dangerously

And also a year of change and transition

The year of living dangerously, this is how one could describe the year 2013 in Pakistan’s context. In a couple of days the year would relegate to the history books but will be remembered by most Pakistanis as a bittersweet year.

During 2013 the country was devastated by the worst kind of terrorism and mayhem. It was also a year during which economic hardships of the common man increased manifold. In the latter part of the year CPI (consumer price index) doubled, taking inflation into double digits earning Pakistan – according to a UN report – the dubious distinction for having the fastest growing inflation rate

On a positive note 2013 was also a year of change and smooth transition. An elected government completed its term and a new one was ushered in as result of peaceful and relatively fair general elections. This was a first for Pakistan where in the past elected governments were invariably booted out before completing their term by generals or a president in cahoots with the brass.

During the year President Zardari completed his five-year term and Mamnoon Hussain succeeded him through in a seamless manner. There was a lot of speculation that Gen Ashfaq Kayani after completing his double-term through a generous extension of three years term will still not simply fade away.

These conjectures proved to be wrong. Kayani is no longer around and Gen Raheel Sharif has assumed his mantle.

The biggest change in style as well as in substance was the exit of the Chief justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. As the senior most judge of the apex court Tassaduq Hussain Jilani succeeded him.

Under Iftikhar the apex court had become the repository of state power. The court’s proactive role went far beyond its constitutional scope and mandate. December 11, 2013 –popularly known as 11/12/13 – was thus termed as a day of deliverance by the executive and a watershed even by some of the colleagues of the former CJP.

Under Jilani the apex court is definitely much less meddlesome and far less prone to playing to the gallery or to unnecessarily needle the government and the bureaucracy. Nonetheless the Supreme Court is not going to regress to the old ways of the Dogar court by becoming a handmaiden of the executive.

The biggest disappointment of the year has been the performance of the PML-N government during the first six months of its rule. Some of the criticism on its conduct is somewhat misplaced, though.

Nonetheless its handling of the economy has been found to be wanting. Finance minister Ishaq Dar has challenged his critics claiming that the GDP growth during the last quarter of the PML-N government has been above five percent – more than double of the average growth rate in the past five years.

Dar has not disclosed the method by which this impressive growth figure was reached. Militating against the authenticity of this figure are ground realities, like rampant inflation, virtually negative foreign investment in the wake of poor law and order, and ham-handed in decision making.

Adhocism rules to the extent that appointments in most public sector entities remain pending despite a lapse of six months. Similarly important diplomatic appointments have been made in a shoddy and haphazard manner. Decisions taken and then reversed has created a strong impression that either there is infighting between senior cabinet colleagues and advisors or the prime minister is simply not paying enough attention to issues impacting the day to day governance.

Another area in which the government was found lacking during the year was running of the parliament and a pronounced lack of urgency in having a dialogue with the opposition. The prime minister virtually remained absent from both houses of the parliament. Holding the fort in his and other ministers’ absence was interior minister Nisar Ali Khan, albeit in a manner quite arbitrarily. With his abrupt style he earned the sole distinction of alienating the opposition and precipitating boycotts of the senate and the national assembly in protest over his offensive remarks.

The arbitrary sacking of NADRA (National Database And Registration Authority) chief Tariq Malik left an impression that the government is impeding the scrutiny of disputed results in some of the constituencies where the PML-N candidates had been declared as winners.

Another phenomenon of 2013 has been the PTI chief Imran Khan, who has preferred street power over the parliament to play politics. He has been successful in blocking the NATO supply route from and to Afghanistan, engendering a foreign policy crisis for Pakistan.

Despite Khan’s recalcitrance in engaging in a dialogue, the resolve tackle the crisis is ominously missing from the PML-N government’s narrative. After his rally in Lahore the PTI chief has planned rallies in Karachi and Lahore early next year.

The PML-N trying to fulfill its election promise wants a dialogue with the Taliban. According to Nisar Ali Khan the stage was all set for talks with the TTP when the drone attack killing its chief Hakimullah Mashud literally sabotaged the effort.

The government still assiduously insists that it has an open backchannel with the Taliban leadership to start a dialogue. On what terms, where and how, no one is willing to spell out.

Despite claims that talks with the Taliban are on the anvil, there has been a marked upsurge in terrorist attacks by the TTP in the past few months. To make matters worse sectarianism in its worst form has been ingested in the blood-soaked equation. The new army chief Gen Raheel Sharif’s resolve that no mercy will be shown to the terrorists – a clean break from his predecessor – gives a fresh ray of hope for the future.

Hopefully year 2014 will be the year of tackling the existential threat of terrorism. Events are inexorably moving towards a military solution to flush out terrorists of different hues and nationalities from our badlands. Gen Sharif seems to be more forthright and decisive than Kayani ever was during his half a dozen years in office in inflicting damage on the jehadi outfits that are bent upon undoing Pakistan.

In the wake of this Pakistan’s security paradigm will have to be tweaked, of course with consensus between the civilian and military leadership – in which the latter must release its vise-like grip over foreign and security issues and allow the government to craft a new paradigm keeping in view the fast changing geopolitical scenario.

At the very fag end of the year, the DGMOs (Director General Military Operations) of Pakistan and India met after a long gap of 14 years. A momentous agreement to ensure sanctity of the line of actual control is an indicator that concerted efforts will be made to secure our eastern borders.

This makes eminent sense. The coming year will be the year of withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan. It is axiomatic that no power sharing formula in Kabul yet in place, a Taliban blowback on our western borders is imminent.

During the year fresh efforts will have to be made to end Pakistan’s relative isolation in the region. With the impending thaw between the West and Iran relations with Tehran will also be on the mend. Sanctions against Iran being somewhat eased Pakistan will be missing an economic opportunity by not reaching out to its Islamic neighbour.

On the economic front Pakistan will remain dependant on the IFI’s (international financial institutions) and on the doles of the west to keep its head above water. It will become an elusive goal if relations with Washington continue to deteriorate. Rampant anti-Americanism in the country coupled with PML-N’s own waffley policies could make matters worse.

Unless the government makes a royal mess of things democracy will continue to thrive in the country. However, the PML-N leadership will have to curb its natural propensity towards authoritarianism in order to survive.

Former dictator general Musharraf’s trial under article 6 of the constitution is another enigma for the military as well as the civilian leadership. It is becoming increasingly difficult to send him abroad as a result of a deal.

But it is equally difficult to hang a former army chief – the maximum conviction for high treason. Perhaps Musharraf will be convicted nonetheless and given a prison sentence. No one will allow him to go scot-free.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.