Jeopardy for the entire region
Hamid Karzai is a wily customer. Knowing that this is almost his last opportunity to squeeze whatever he can get out of the US in order to extend his tenuous hold on Kabul beyond his mandate. Having served out his two terms, he cannot have a third tilt at the job. So the next best thing for him is to ensure that with the US’ support, his nominee is installed in the presidency after the forthcoming elections. He tried to wiggle out of a spot by delaying the post US drawdown long-term security arrangement with the Americans. But once the Afghan Loya Jirga, the grand assembly, gave its seal of approval to the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), Karzai was expected to sign on the dotted line. Yet right when the Americans thought that they had the deal sealed, signed and couriered, Karzai put his spanner in the works instead. Apart from a fresh set of demands from the US, he says he would only sign if they were met, that too after the Afghan presidential elections in April 2014.
Karzai’s demands, presented to President Obama’s top national security adviser Susan E Rice, are: the US help his government begin peace talks with the Taliban, release all 17 Afghan citizens being held in the Guantanamo Bay, and also no US soldier steps into an Afghan home. The Americans are not falling for Karzai’s bluff. Their counter is, sign it now or else. And that else is, ‘without a prompt signature’ the US shall go into absolute withdrawal mode with ‘no US or NATO troop presence in Afghanistan’, as well as putting in jeopardy $4 billion in international pledges to fund the fledgling Afghan army and another $4 billion for the country’s economic development.
The US, as a senior official pointed out, has the ‘troops’, and while Karzai has his conditions, the US has a ‘plan’. With that apt summation, it seems Karzai’s last ditch attempt at self-perpetuation through a proxy is going to remain a pipedream. The unequivocal US stance leaves Karzai with no chips on his side of the table. And his high stakes Russian roulette could leave Afghanistan in a position worse than Iraq owing to the potent threat of the Taliban and a slew of war lords only too keen to create their own fiefs. What is more it is certain to jeopardise the security of the entire region, including Pakistan’s.