Pak-India relations
The bilateral composite dialogue initiated in February 2004 remains suspended since the 2008 Mumbai incident. The conflagration on the Line of Control (LoC) is the worst ever since the 2003 accord had ensured that the guns there remained silenced. Even the cricket teams of the two nations have not had a two-way exchange since 2007. In the circumstances, the meeting between India’s external affairs minister and Pakistani prime minister’s advisor on foreign affairs on the sidelines of the multilateral moot in New Delhi featuring foreign ministers of Asia and Europe was not expected to yield much. Sartaj Aziz’s meeting with his old mate, Indian PM Dr Manmohan Singh was the salient moment, but it too was dubbed as ‘deliberately understated’ and a ‘low-key affair’ by Indian media. The two PMs, Nawaz Sharif and Dr Singh, both seem truly keen on improving relations, yet hawks on both sides have dominated the narrative, stymieing whenever there was a possibility of genuine thaw holding the promise of forward movement.
The vibes coming from New Delhi during Aziz’s visit were not all negative yet the acrimony was far too palpable to not to be felt – especially on the issue of Aziz’s meeting with Hurriyet leaders. The onus of restoring peace on the LoC and international border too was put on Pakistan, though the unprovoked firing cannot all be one-sided. It also cannot be ignored that the meeting of the DGMOs agreed on in the New York summit between the two PMs on September 29 has still to materialize – for which again Pakistan alone cannot be blamed.
On this side of the border, there is growing realization that India is not interested in a structured dialogue process at the time being owing to its own domestic political considerations – with elections looming, hawks in both the leading parties are having a go at Pakistan to fetch votes. Then the quite visibly assertive Indian army too is having a distinctly negative say on Pakistan. In the circumstances the prospects of Dr Manmohan Singh visiting Islamabad remain remote, though some reports suggest that conviction of suspects of the Mumbai terror attacks in this country might pave the way for that. Pakistan has far too much to offer to India in case of normalization and resolution of some of the main issues, such as access to the Central Asian markets etc. Ratcheting down hostility with Pakistan thus is in India’s favour.
