The drone strike on Hakimullah and its ramifications
Coming on the heels of prime minister’s visit to US – which was being billed as harbinger of a new start in the Pak-US relations – the drone attack in North Waziristan that killed TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud, has destroyed all the good work that had been done before and during the visit to improve relations between the two countries. The killing of Hakimullah has undoubtedly disrupted the process of the contemplated dialogue with TTP, which has already announced not to negotiate with the government and take revenge for the death of its leader. PTI has vowed to block NATO supplies and the interior minister accusing the US of sabotaging the dialogue with TTP has indicated reviewing Pak-US relations in the light of the new developments. This episode has also further fuelled the hate-syndrome against US among the public and the government is under tremendous pressure from the political and religious parties and public to take punitive and retaliatory measures against her.
It is indeed a very testing time for the government who is faced with a syndrome of ‘parallel universe’ and will ultimately have to opt for one of the available options to deal with the situation. One option is to swim along the tide of public sentiment to block NATO supplies, like we did in the backdrop of Salala incident. The second option is to shoot down the drones violating our airspace and pummeling our sovereignty to assuage the public sentiment.
The third possible option and extreme step could be to pull out of the alliance against terrorism and scaling down our diplomatic relations with the US. The fourth option is to remain engaged with US at the diplomatic level and continue agitating the drone attacks on bilateral level or raise the issue at international forums like UN Security Council to build further pressure on the US to revisit its policy. Yet another policy option available to the government is to step up its efforts to facilitate reconciliation in Afghanistan and the pull out of US-NATO from that country as per the announced schedule without any hiccups. All these options however have certain consequences.
As regards the US policy on drones, despite a very harsh reaction from the Pakistani government, it has defended the attack and there is no indication that it will change its strategy in the near future. A spokesman of the US state department has said that talks with the TTP was an internal matter of Pakistan and repudiated the notion that the strike had hurt peace talks. Congressman Mike Rogers who chairs the Permanent Intelligence Committee of the House of Representatives said, “I feel a little better for our troops today than I did before this event happened.”
NATO Secretary General has urged Pakistan not to disrupt NATO supplies and said it was in the interest of Pakistan to keep them going. US Secretary John Kerry called Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif only to reiterate continued cooperation in war on terror and extended no assurance in regards to halting drone attacks. All these developments prove beyond any doubt that US, the sole super power in the world, is not only ruthless in pursuing its policy objectives but is also oblivious to the sensitivities of other nations and its allies. Drone attacks remain an integral part of its strategy to deal with terrorists and probably it will continue this ploy till the safe exit of the US-NATO forces from Afghanistan.
The present government, ever since it took power, has taken a very strong position on the drone attacks and has echoed its concern at every available forum, especially Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been very vociferous in this regard. During his US visit, before meeting President Obama, he remained more focused on the subject than any other issue in his interaction with the media and US leaders. In his meeting with President Obama he is reported to have repeatedly stressed the desirability of cessation of drone attacks. He did whatever he possibly could.
The dilemma is that we are here dealing with a sole superpower bent upon furthering its strategic interests irrespective of the hurt that it causes to our strategic interests. The disruption in NATO supplies at a time when US is in the process of pulling out from Afghanistan might delay the process and force US to also respond with punitive measures like withholding the recently announced US $ 1.6 billion assistance announced for Pakistan as well as future remittances under CSF, go slow on the recent understanding on helping Pakistan in developing its energy sector, review its policy on allowing Pakistani imports into US, use its influence on EU to block Pakistani bid for inclusion in GSP Plus and even manoeuvre Pakistan’s isolation from the world community. Shooting down the drone would mean direct military confrontation which Pakistan is neither capable of nor can it afford.
Pulling out of the alliance, severing or scaling down of diplomatic relations could also have very serious repercussion in terms of our regional strategic interests. Continuing diplomatic pressure on US at the international level while remaining engaged with her in nudging reconciliation process in Afghanistan and withdrawal of US-NATO forces on schedule seems a better option even if our sovereignty is compromised in the long term interest of the country. The TTP saga is also part of this bigger picture. If this is achieved as envisaged then at least it will eliminate one of the major causes of TTP’s justification to carry out acts of terrorism within Pakistan as a retaliatory step.
One thing is for sure that the dialogue process with TTP for now has hit the dead end. But it is encouraging to note that the cabinet has decided to continue with the dialogue process and not allow it to be derailed. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has shown better understanding of the obtaining situation and not adopted a threatening posture towards US or hinted at the possibility to stop NATO supplies. He still is desirous of carrying forward the dialogue with TTP and also remaining engaged with the US to find a way out of this convoluted and debilitating rigmarole.
The government should take all the stakeholders into confidence, try to mellow down the extremist views among some political parties and seek their assistance in re-engaging the TTP leadership into a meaningful dialogue and also urge upon them the necessity to avoid any kind of confrontation with US at this crucial juncture. There is a need to act upon the maxim ‘live today to fight another day’.
Malik Muhammad Ashraf is an academic. He can be contacted at: ashpak10@gmail.com.