Hallmark of the Washington Summit

Resumption of the strategic dialogue

Nawaz Sharif is back from an ostensibly successful official US visit. No earth shattering or momentous decisions were announced as a consequence of the Nawaz-Obama summit. However the fact that there were no glitches or major public disagreements underscores the spirit of bonhomie that prevailed during the hour and a half long meeting between the two leaders.

The operative part of the summit is the one on one discourse – sans aides. Only the prime minister can disclose what transpired or any understanding reached during the bilateral discourse.

But let’s face it. Like in the 1960s and early 1970s, Pakistan is no longer ‘the most allied of allies’ of the United States. It is not even an ally proper. Some US analysts who have termed Pakistan as a ‘frenemy’ of America are not way off the mark.

Islamabad is an ally that Washington needs right now to steer its way out of the Afghan imbroglio by next year – with some measure of grace. Paradoxically speaking, on one side Pakistan is a country that is the major supply route for NATO forces and on the other it is also a safe haven for the Afghan Taliban.

Notwithstanding Pakistan’s own perceptions about its strategic importance, relations with the US are more of a transactional nature. The trust deficit between the two countries cannot be overemphasized here. The year 2011 during which Osama bin Laden was killed by the US Navy SEALs in a covert operation and later in the year shooting down of several Pakistani troops by the US forces brought the relationship to the lowest of lows.

As a consequence of the Nawaz-Obama summit, relations that had already been somewhat salvaged are back on track. Nevertheless it is obvious that Washington is more focused on security-related concerns in the region, whereas Sharif under the garb of the slogan, ‘trade not aid’ wants US cooperation in retrieving Pakistan’s precarious economy from the brink.

Nawaz failed to get any specific commitment from his interlocutors on the issue of drone attacks on Pakistani badlands. Two reports emerged on the eve of his meeting Obama. One helped Sharifs’ cause while the other negated it.

According to the Amnesty International drones kill civilians, violate international law and are hence tantamount to war crimes. Another report leaked to the Washington Post, notwithstanding the denials is quite damning. It exposes the duplicity of successive Pakistani governments in not only tolerating drones as an instrument of death but in some cases actually being a party to such attacks.

Obviously drone attacks though already having become fewer and far apart, are not going to entirely stop unless Pakistan agrees to launch a military putsch of its own in N. Waziristan and its tribal belt. For the time being taking such a strategic decision is beyond the call of the Pakistani prime minister.

How and who Sharif chooses as his next military chief to succeed Gen Kayani late next month will have an ultimate impact on the future security policies. It will also depend upon whether the present government unlike its predecessor, is willing to take ownership of counter-terrorism policies.

Interestingly during the summit there was a detailed discussion on the whole ambit of tensions between India and Pakistan. There is also a vague mention of the US facilitating a dialogue between India and Pakistan.

Some analysts have mistakenly construed it as an offer by President Obama to mediate on the Kashmir issue. Despite the prime minister’s forlorn hope, this is not going to happen.

New Delhi has consistently and assiduously avoided third party mediation on Kashmir. It has even become allergic to both the adversaries being treated as equal.

Washington has implicitly accepted this position. Perhaps for this reason Sharif had to make a separate trip to Washington only a few weeks after the Indian prime minister met the US president on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

President Obama however did amplify New Delhi’s lament about Islamabad’s reluctance to try the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai massacre, booking Hafiz Saeed and proscribing his jehadi outfit JUD (Jamaat-ud-Dawaa). The US State Department does not buy Islamabad’s explanation that there is insufficient evidence against Hafiz Saeed, pointing out there is already a bounty on his head.

This is a tough call for Sharif. He has very correctly stated that we have to set our own house in order. But in this case where our security establishment considers some of the jihadists as strategic assets it will be difficult for him to walk the talk.

The crux of the summit is Pakistan agreeing to help bring the Afghan Taliban to the table for an “Afghan led and Afghan owned peace and reconciliation process.” Pakistan‘s objective is that in the post-NATO/ISAF withdrawal scenario in 2014 a broad based government including the Taliban should be in place in Kabul.

This dialogue will however be only meaningful once the Afghan President Hamid Karzai steps down after completing his term in April 2014. Taliban will be loath to talk to Karzai. Hence for the sake of peace, sooner he leaves the better.

In the post-NATO withdrawal scenario if the Taliban are not in the successor government in Kabul, already reeling under the existential threat of terrorism, the blowback will be disastrous for Pakistan. This is where Washington and Islamabad’s goals coalesce.

On the other hand both the Pakistani establishment and the US are faced with a conundrum: how to launch an operation in N. Waziristan but at the same time initiate talks with some of those holed up there?

Aafia Siddiqui convicted by a US court is an issue more for domestic consumption. Her release is a no-go, so far as Washington is concerned. As for Dr Shakil Afridi, despite being on a relatively weak wicket Islamabad cannot afford to release him for the time being.

A hallmark of the visit is resumption of the strategic dialogue between Islamabad and Washington that will be hosted by Secretary of State John Kerry in Washington March next year. The five working groups formed in this context is another positive development.

However Pakistan getting a civilian nuclear deal, a la India, will remain a forlorn hope for the foreseeable future. Unlike India, the west feels insecure about Islamabad’s nuclear designs.

Arif Nizami is Editor, Pakistan Today.