The most significant development in recent years
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House on Wednesday was critical for the future course of US-Pakistan relations. One issue at the top of the agenda – alongside the future of Afghanistan, Pakistan’s own much-weakened state and attacks by terrorist groups – is said to be the country’s nuclear weapons programme. Pakistan’s rapid development of battlefield nuclear weapons raises many questions in the region and abroad.
Western analysts estimate Pakistan has between 100 and 120 nuclear weapons, far more than its rival India, which is believed to have 90-100. Pakistan has multiple delivery capability, such as long and short-range rockets and aircraft. It will soon add naval capability with sea-launched missiles.
Less well-known is that Pakistan has one of the fastest growing battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons programmes in the world today, according to senior western officials I have spoken with. The Americans developed the capacity to put miniaturised nuclear bombs on short-range rockets, artillery and tank shells in the 1950s – something Pakistan is apparently doing now and very successfully.
“The most significant development in recent years has been the creation of a battlefield nuclear force ‘in being’ that provides Pakistan the option of a battlefield use of nuclear weapons,’’ writes Christopher Clary in an essay on Pakistani nukes published by the US National Bureau of Asian Research.
Western officials say the dangers of such weapons are many. They are made in large numbers and are small and thus can more easily be stolen or hijacked by extremist groups operating openly in Pakistan; smaller nuclear weapons make it easier to decide to wage a limited nuclear war if Islamabad considers it is being defeated in a conflict with India’s much larger conventional armed forces; and such weapons can be specifically targeted on, say, invading Indian military formations, raising the ante for an all-out nuclear war.
Pakistan refuses to adopt a “no first use” of nuclear weapons in its strategic focus and therefore every crisis the two countries have been involved in since they became nuclear weapon states has forced Islamabad to adopt a threatening and risky posture in order to avoid total war with India, which it would surely lose. “Small nuclear weapons make it psychologically easier for decision makers to use them, rather than having to decide about an all-out nuclear war,’’ says one western expert.
Pakistani officials point out several elements in their favour. Despite attacks on airports, military bases and other sensitive places, terrorists have never stolen or been able to acquire nuclear materials – although there is always a first time.
There is the equally threatening posture of Indian forces who have developed a battlefield plan called ‘Cold Start’, which takes advantage of their much larger conventional forces to inflict a quick defeat on specific Pakistani forces or border regions before Islamabad can fully mobilise.
The Pakistan Army which has to defend a very long border with India, and does not have the forces or reserves to do so adequately, fears exactly such a strategy. India denies that it even has a ‘Cold Start’ strategy which makes discussions between the two countries even more difficult.
The real concern for western powers at the moment is not that two rational governments will go to war, but that the proxy wars they wage against each other will get out of hand. Terrorist groups who have been sponsored by the Pakistani military in the past and are not under any control now could create a war syndrome on the border, just as the 2008 suicide attack in Mumbai by Lashkar-e-Taiba did when 166 Indians were killed. Likewise, India is needling Pakistan by allegedly backing separatists in Balochistan.
In recent weeks, scares generated by terrorist attacks either on Indian forces in the disputed region of Kashmir or on civilian targets in both countries have led to several acute rises in tensions.
It is still difficult to convince the Pakistani army that the real threat comes not from India, but from the spread of Islamic extremism and terrorist groups active on its soil. The army also faces questions from a public that by and large supports the nuclear programme, but wonders why Pakistan needs such a large nuclear arsenal when it already has a viable nuclear deterrent against India and why so much is still being spent on making new bombs when the economy is in melt down. So far there has been no adequate answer.
Both India and Pakistan spend an extraordinary amount of money on their nuclear weapons programmes that are expanding and growing all the time at a huge cost to their respective populations who remain largely mired in poverty.
Pakistan’s larger nuclear arsenal and development of tactical bombs and India’s huge rocket development programme for carrying nuclear weapons has only fuelled a new arms race in the region that now involves not just the size of bombs, but also delivery vehicles.
Both countries may not like or trust one another but increasingly their nuclear weapons programmes are totally out of sync with economic and other realities on the ground. But who will say this to them when there is no international or regional diplomatic effort in place which could hold talks between the two sides and try and stem this hugely dangerous game? The west’s concerns about Pakistan’s miniaturised nuclear bombs should be translated into a larger deal that pushes both Islamabad and New Delhi to contain what is now a runaway bomb by making by two countries who have proved three times that they can go to war against one another.
Ahmed Rashid is best-selling author of several books about Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia, most recently ‘Descent into Chaos’. This article was also carried by The Financial Times.
Ahmed Rashid is very famus in europe usa etc he has also worked with usa and europeen militaries! Mr Ahmed Rashid Islamic Republic Of Pakistan is governed since its creation in 1947 by Pakistani englishmen with english lows in force in Islamic Pakistan so where is danger for you? Islamic Pakistan is still in Formation! Muslim means Hajj Zaqat Namaz Roza & Allah if yau are a Muslim of course Islamic Shariat Laws must be in force in Islamic Country this is for Muslims so Mr Ahmed Rashid you are in Or you are Out?! english lobby will fight to keep its advantages but remember Danda Peer hai Wighrian Tigrian Da may the Islamic Republic Of Pakistan with Allah's Help Protect All Muslism ALL!
Pakistan was created by the same Pakistani Englishmen and there are hundreds of thousands of Pakistani Englishmen inside Pakistan if u think a desire of peaceful coexistence among various sects and keeping full of hate sectarian Mullah's under check is something English. Secondly Pakistan was simply created a country where Muslims can be in a majority and if u have any sense of reality then Pakistanis are only Muslims on Friday. The country was not created for any form of Shariyaut and if it were then i simply donot understand why Molana Moududi (an idiot who spent his life shouting about Islamic banking but couldnot explain it) was cussing on Quaid e Azam and cussing him of being a Kafir. hence if u want a Saudi Styled theocracy please apply for Saudi Nationality. Thankyou
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You explained it well — thumbs-up …
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But kharian-pak is more at home on a grass diet …
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Changing the facts is not possible. You can interpret them in your own idiotic way.
Author emphasises that Pakistan is the sole problem for the Race in Nuclear weapons Across the subcontinent. How bias towards his own country and Military. The article itself represents the type of Proxy war both countries are engaging, as Indian Agencies fund Pakistani Journalist to criticise its own Military on Nuclear and senstive issues. Suprisingly I haven't seen any Indian Journalist Criticising Indian Nuclear Doctrine, as it was India which performed Nuclear Tests at first place and threatens Pakistan. The new race in the Nuclear is nothing new and it has been going for years. The most worrying developments in the subcontinent is Indian funding TTP Militants in Afghanistan to attack Pakistan security Installations such as the one they did in Karachi Attacking AWACS aircraft which were no concern to TTP but to India. Another part to this story is that If India continued to carryout such adventure on Pakistan Nuclear installations through their Vertiberal Arm TTP it may result into a more dangerous Conflict for India as well.
Author emphasises that Pakistan is the sole problem for the Race in Nuclear weapons Across the subcontinent. How bias towards his own country and Military. The article itself represents the type of Proxy war both countries are engaging
Ahmed Rashid totally ignore to acknowledge that it was India not Pakistan who nuclearized South Asia in 1974 when India disintegrated Pakistan and had no threat from Pakistan. Again it was New Delhi who financed armed Mukti Bhani's terrorist and exported cross border terrorism in former East Pakistan. Pakistan is always threatened by India. India's 80% army is deployed on Pakistan's border. It is not Pakistan but India who is Pakistan centric. It is Pakistan's bold and clear understanding that it will never use its nuclear weapons for offensive. they shall only be utilized if its existence is threatened by external aggression like Isreal.
Meltdown in the economy is more due to mis-governance and astronomical corruption by our politicians and bureaucrats, including some retired generals, rather than due to the expenditure on nuclear and defence needs, as the writer infers.
Considering Indian policies and conduct, it would be suicidal to slacken in matters of defence which I believe military would understand better than civilians.
Karachi
Ahmed Rashid’s history proves that he is also a paid activist by foreign actors and he is so much obsessed by his awards which west has given him that to secure that image he is willing to write anything even against Pakistan. Reading this article a lay man will definitely perceive a bad image about Pakistan’s peaceful nuclear program. India is increasing its conventional arms and military strategy Cold Start is a threat and other than India is also provoking Pakistan by melodramas of LOC firings, such Indian aggression must be countered and Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons are right for sure deterrence and not to worry for anyone.
Strange, not only exaggerated the matter but blamed Pakistan’s deterrence to be a matter of worry. Author should be aware of Indian anti-Pakistan elements and Indian media which are projecting Indian image is Soft power in fact it is evil power, working to destabilize the regional peace. India is involved in funding many extremist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan (http://www.pakistantoday.mbt.pk/2013/09/26/news/national/india-afghanistan-involved-in-balochistan-unrest-report/) not only that former CBI and RAW agent Verma revealed that Mumbai and Parliament attacks were fabricated by Indian government and intelligence agencies. To deter Indian aggression Pakistan will make all possible steps to make sure its security and sovereignty. Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons development is secure far out of hands of terrorists and is only for enemies.
Another case of His Master's Voice
Will someone please tell this idiot writer that policies are made by the politicians especially now ,so where does the need to convince the Army comes from. I have heard this person speak on the TV long time back ,his writing is as incoharent as his speech.Most probably like many such characters he has shifted to homeland.
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