The US and post-2014 Afghanistan
The US and Afghanistan have come to an understanding about security arrangements post the US drawdown by the end of next year. By signing a preliminary agreement on the issue, both sides have agreed to seriously look into the situation. With the US leaving these parts soon, it is of great import that such an agreement comes into force, thus protecting the country from falling into the hands of the Taliban or disintegrate with war lords ruling their areas of influence for the Afghan security forces lack capacity.
The issue is not only affecting the endgame in Afghanistan, it will have a long term effect on the donors that provide most of its income, and also its neighbours. With millions of refugees already in Pakistan, another influx can be expected if the Afghan security forces are not able to hold their ground. The new agreement between the two countries is aimed at removing legal issues, allowing the US to operate its forces with immunity from local laws – a thorny issue that President Hamid Karazai was opposed to. The US also wants to run counter-terrorism missions independent of the Kabul government, another subject on which the US and the Afghan president were of divergent opinion. However, before it is enforced, the new agreement needs approval from the Loya Jirga and Afghan Parliament. The US State Secretary John Kerry has held meetings with the Afghan president to convince him, but the decision has been delegated to the Afghan people with an intent to capitalise on it in the coming elections.
Now that both sides have agreed to give in and have accepted to work on each other’s reservations, one can hope that a satisfactory solution can be found for the country’s post-2014 security situation. No one wants replication of Soviet withdrawal in the 1980s. But if the deal doesn’t come through, the US would be left with nothing but to pursue what is being called the ‘zero option’, under which it would have to withdraw all its forces from the country, thus leaving the Afghan government totally vulnerable to attacks from the Taliban. That indeed would be an alarming situation, one that the international community has been working on to avoid. One can only hope that better sense prevails and a suitable agreement is reached at to maintain the country’s integrity post-2014.
