Kayani’s orderly departure is time for Pakistan to ‘rejoice’

The last time Nawaz Sharif was in a position to select a Pakistan army chief he came to regret his decision. Within a year General Pervez Musharraf had ousted him as prime minister and established a military government.
This time round Sharif, reinstalled as prime minister for a third time in May, will be more careful in choosing the person to lead the 500,000 strong force which has for almost half of Pakistan’s 66-year history run the country.
The vacancy at the top of the organisation was created on Sunday when army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani ended weeks of speculation that he would stay in office, or even extend his powers, by announcing he would step down on November 29 setting in motion what Pakistan’s pro-democracy activists have hailed as a defining moment.
For a country which this year celebrated the first peaceful transition from one elected regime to another, General Kayani’s orderly departure after six years is being seen as historic.
“For a coup-prone nation, this is the moment to rejoice,” said an aide to Sharif speaking to the Financial Times. “Events in Egypt and the overthrow of President [Mohamed] Morsi’s government was a terrible reminder of the worst case scenario,” he added, referring to the military takeover in Egypt that saw the democratically elected Morsi government ousted in July.
According to Hasan Askari Rizvi, a commentator on Pakistan’s politics and the army, the speculation surrounding General Kayani, was driven mainly by Pakistan’s history.
He is expected to be replaced by one of three senior generals: Lieutenant General Haroon Aslam, Lieutenant General Rashad Mahmood and Lieutenant General Raheel Sharif.
Though Sharif’s return as prime minister was widely seen as a maturing of democracy in the nuclear-armed south Asian state, Rizvi said: “The army still has so much clout in key decision making that it has a larger than life presence. The army’s overwhelming role in running the country is what fuelled this speculation over General Kayani’s future.”
The key challenge for Sharif and the army is the fight with Taliban militants who have tried to take control of the region bordering Afghanistan. Many analysts believe, Taliban militants are likely to step up the fight as the planned US drawdown of troops from Afghanistan by the end 2014 nears. This will clearly sharpen the challenge for Pakistan.
Almost one-third of Pakistan’s army has been deployed to that region for more than a decade, making the army crucial in security affairs. “Pakistan’s survival depends to a large extent on the military’s role. That fundamental reality can never be ignored, making the army an essential stakeholder” said Rizvi.
But others insist, the thinking of the Pakistan Army has evolved beyond the days when senior generals actively pursued opportunities for a coup.
“If you look back at General Kayani’s six years, he has tried to dissociate the army from civilian institutions,” said retired Major General Mehmood Durrani, the former national security adviser to former prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. “A part of this thinking is driven by Pakistan’s own evolution of politics and society. There are many more voices today in the public who want to see a continuity of civilian rule,” he added.
Rizvi said, unlike Egypt where the military stepped in this year, Pakistan’s politics have evolved with the strengthening of political parties, a relatively free media and a number of pro-democracy groups who are all eager to support civilian rule. This evolution has taken place side by side with the military remaining a strong actor.
“I think eventually everyone recognises the army as a key participant in Pakistan’s national affairs,” he said. “But you also have to reconcile with the emergence of key civilian players who are very important. Ultimately, you are looking at the need for all these players, military and non-military, to join hands and deal with vital challenges, notably security issues.” Western diplomats closely following events surrounding the hype over General Kayani’s future say, his departure and the arrival of a new army chief says much about the way Pakistan’s army has evolved. “No more do you have generals stepping in through coups. You have generals who support the civilian structure but also retain their influence,” said one. “It’s a new Pakistan beyond the frequently coup-prone one.”