The New York Summit

Singh got what he wanted

Nawaz Sharif after a weeklong sojourn abroad is back in Islamabad to the usual grind of being the prime minister of Pakistan, where the crisis created as a result of steep hike in petroleum prices and electricity tariff has snowballed in his government’s face.

Trying to achieve mutually exclusive objectives of not further burdening the already hapless common man and meeting the IMF conditionalities at the same time, the PML-N government seems to be clueless. Similarly despite getting a mandate from the APC held early last month there is no visible strategy in place to initiate a dialogue with the TTP.

In a 24/7 news cycle Sharif meeting his Indian counterpart only last Sunday in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, is already old news. Nonetheless the meeting was a watershed not necessarily to improve relations between the two South Asian neighbours but by virtue of putting Pakistan on notice.

Pakistan has been told to keep the LoC (Line of Control) in Kashmir incident-free. The onus is on Islamabad to prove its peaceful intentions and that it is not the enfant terrible of the region, as painted by its estranged neighbour.

Manmohan Singh did not mince his words about Pakistan during his stay in New York. On three different occasions before he met Nawaz Sharif he labelled Islamabad as “the epicentre of terrorism”.

While meeting the US President he repeated his lament requesting Barack Obama to restrain Pakistan. Despite this obvious provocation Sharif met Manmohan Singh along with an unnecessarily large retinue of ministers – all smiles and double handshakes.

It is interesting to note that in the past New Delhi has always rejected any moves for third party mediation with Islamabad. Owing to its peculiar interpretation of bilateralism, it is particularly allergic to the US playing any overt role to bring the two nuclear powered neighbours closer.

Not to hurt Indian sensibilities, President Obama meticulously avoided meeting Nawaz Sharif. Some time ago New Delhi had conveyed to Washington that meetings with Indian and Pakistani leaders should not be lumped together.

The Indian point of view was implicitly accepted. When the US Secretary of State John Kerry visited New Delhi a few months back, he studiously avoided visiting Islamabad to touch base with the newly-inducted government.

It was privately conveyed that this was not meant as a snub to Pakistan but was in deference to the Indian wishes. Kerry did visit Islamabad a few weeks later. Similarly Obama met Singh but chose to invite Sharif to Washington later this month.

Apparently it is a misconception that Manmohan Singh is a lame duck prime minister, it transpires now. Indian general elections are still six months away. And six months is a long time in politics.

Of immediate concern for the Congress led UPA coalition is to win the elections in four of the states due soon. It will be a miracle if it can just hold on to the two where the UPA already is in power.

When the then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee visited Islamabad to attend the 12^th SAARC Summit in 2004, he was just a month away from announcing general elections. Yet as a result of successful talks with his host Musharraf, Islamabad Declaration was signed which was termed “as a model of high-minded diplomacy”, by Michael Krepon, the co-founder of the US based think tank, The Stimson Institute.

Hence now just because Manmohan Singh is in the twilight of his term, lack of progress in the New York parleys on bilateral issues important for Pakistan cannot be condoned. The Indian side merely concentrated upon reviving a mechanism at the level of DGMOs (director general military operations) of the two armies to stop incidents on the LoC and to bring to book perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack. They got what they had wanted.

As if to assuage public opinion at home our spokesman while briefing the media after the meeting (and after the Indian spokesman had already said his piece) disclosed that issues such as Kashmir, Sir Creek and alleged Indian interference in Balochistan were also discussed. Shiv Shankar Menon, the Indian national security advisor, however rejected any Indian intervention in Balochistan.

It is interesting to note that the Indian side simply refused to follow the usual practice of holding a joint briefing after such meets. In this way not only New Delhi was successful in giving its own spin to the parleys, it was also able to dominate the news cycle with its peculiar interpretation of events.

No timetable has been set for resumption of the stalled composite dialogue on contentious issues closer to Islamabad’s heart. Obviously it has been made amply clear that progress is contingent upon the success of the renewed mechanism to monitor incursions on the LoC. And of course the onus has been placed on Islamabad to deliver on that score.

Notwithstanding who is the perpetrator, Pakistan is liable to be blamed even for an indigenous incident in Indian held Kashmir. Similarly the so-called non-state actors in Pakistan, ensconced in our badlands, will have double incentive to upset the apple cart on the LoC.

New Delhi simply cannot outgrow the perception that such incidents take place with the encouragement if not actual connivance of the Pak Army. The South Block – the home of the Indian MEA (Ministry for External Affairs) – maintains, and the Indian top brass echoes the mantra that in Pakistan the army calls all the shots.

No doubt the military in Pakistan is the most important stakeholder. And the democratic principal of civilian control over the armed forces is yet an elusive dream over here. Nonetheless Pakistan is a functioning democracy – a fact arrogantly rejected by the so-called biggest democracy in the world.

An Indian army commander has alleged that the Pakistani troops might be involved in an ongoing battle in the Indian held Kashmir. This is less than a week after the New York meeting between prime ministers of the two countries. Déjà vu: we will see more of the same in days to come.

Sidebar:

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif chose to stay at the luxurious Palace Hotel in Manhattan where a suite starts from no less than $10,000 for a night. Previously president Zardari would reside at Barclays Intercontinental, perhaps equally expensive. Why our leaders cannot lead by example by staying at the PIA owned Roosevelt Hotel also located on Madison Avenue? Maybe because it is less luxurious and somewhat dilapidated!

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.