US and Afghanistan at loggerheads
Afghanistan seems to be headed to yet another tribulation. As the US is headed towards drawdown by the end of 2014, the Afghan security forces have little time, a matter of months in fact, to set their affairs in order. Meanwhile, the US withdrawal can create troubles not just for Afghanistan but could spill-over to Pakistan as well. The US and ISAF forces have clearly been unable to defeat Taliban there and had been left with no other recourse but to sue for peace with them. This may have just worked if the Afghan government were willing to work with the US in finalising a deal for the post-2014 security of the country, and had the Taliban been more accommodating of the Karzai government or vice versa.
The real bone of contention between the US and the Afghan leadership is an agreement that the US wants Kabul to sign – allowing it to run special independent counter-terrorism missions in Afghanistan post-2014. President Karzai has been vocal against such an arrangement, owing to a much greater impact on the civilians and how it can create difficulties in relationships between Afghanistan and its neighbours. The US has also denied the Afghan government a surety to protect it from foreign aggression, something that the US would not commit to. While both these points have their respective merits and can be discussed at great length, what really matters is that any delay in concluding an agreement on how to technically complete this withdrawal will adversely affect the region. Besides Afghanistan, it would be Pakistan that would be hit hard, mainly from the refugees who are likely to swarm Pakistani cities and towns in search of jobs and relatively secure life – like they always have whenever there was strife west of the Durand Line. A war-ravaged Afghanistan is in no condition to handle these issues, particularly if much like the late 1980s the US leaves it in the lurch. And Pakistan in no way can afford a large influx of refugees. The situation doesn’t get better with Pakistan’s strong objections over the US drone attacks in its tribal areas.
Peace in Afghanistan can and will impact peace in Pakistan. How the US and Afghan authorities chalk up a course in handling the transition matters to Islamabad as well. The US officials have hinted that they would wait for the new dispensation in Kabul due by April next year if the present government doesn’t sign the pact, but letting the issue linger on will create problems for all stakeholders. It is time the Afghan and US political leadership got serious in solving this obstacle for a peaceful transition.
