What is at stake?
The use of Sarin gas in Damascus suburbs may become the trigger for American and European attack on the Assad regime. It appears though that the attack would be limited in nature, mainly to destroy the chemical warfare infrastructure of the Syrian regime. There is very high possibility that the attack won’t aspire to remove Assad from power. The removal of Assad regime might open a tinderbox, for which the Americans, the Israelis, the Saudis, the Qataris, Turkey and others may not have the appetite.
Over 100,000 civilians have been killed in the Syrian civil war since it started in 2011 and over four million people have been displaced. Two million Syrians are currently living as refugees in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The ordeal of Syrian people though doesn’t appear to be ending very soon. In this civil war, we are watching the making of another Afghanistan.
A lot is at stake. Aside from the Palestinians whose whole country was gobbled by Israel, Syria is the only Arab country, which has a genuine territorial conflict with Israel for Golan Heights that were occupied by Israel in 1967. In addition to their strategic importance, the Golan Heights are an important water resource. They help sustain flows for rivers and springs in the region. The occupied sector of Golan Heights provides substantial amount of water to the Jordan River watershed, supplying about 15 per cent of Israel’s water needs. Additionally the Lake Ram is also located in the Golan Heights, so is river Yarmouk.
Syria is also strategically very important in the Palestinian-Israeli equation. Since the overthrow of Shah in 1979, Iran is the only country to have taken an open position against the Israeli subjugation of Palestinian territories. Recently, Turkey has also seen a small shift in its policy towards Israel under Erdogan, inspired by his aspirations for leadership in Arab region. Over the years, Iran has acquired a land-based access to Israel via a Shia dominated Iraq, to a Shia controlled Syria and from there to Lebanon via Hezbollah. Apparently weapons, military personnel and other assistance flows from Iran via Iraq and Syria to Hezbollah and to Hamas.
It was due to allies like Syria and Hezbollah that Ahmedinejad addressed a large gathering of Lebanese at the border with Israel, looking down upon Israel from the elevated Iranian Garden in Bint-e-Jubail. In his address, the Iranian president threatened Israel about the alliance of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (read Hezbollah) behind the Palestinian people. Therefore to overthrow the regime of Bashar Al-Assad is to break the land link of Iran to Israel, and take out the only major irritant that has discomforted the Jewish state since the Camp David accord.
Through the Camp David accord, the Egyptians embraced peace with Israel forgetting their old province Gaza in the control of Jewish state, in return for Sinai and the constant American military aid. Jordan, the other neighbour to the east of Israel also enjoys regular instalments of American aid in return for friendly ties with the occupier of Palestinian land. The Gulf states have as well since the Egyptian-Israeli accord, shelved the Palestinian issue in return for multi-dimensional relations with the US and European nations, in the fields of military cooperation, the oil trade, shipping, transportation, construction and science and technology.
When the Syrian civil war protracted and Bashar Al Assad callously continued to kill the peaceful protestors, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey started supporting the opposition and arming various groups. Jordan became the transit route for Saudi Arabia and Qatar to transfer arms, train people and provide other support to the opposition forces and militias fighting in Syria. Egypt as well declared its support for the Syrian Brotherhood during the period of president Morsi. That intervention however is now stopped.
The field though has been cluttered since then. A situation similar to Afghanistan prevails in Syria today, which is a multi-ethnic society comprising upon Arab, Kurds, Armenians, Circassians, Chechens, Turkomans divided along the Sunnis, Shia and Christians. At the moment, the Syrian regime controls about 40-60 per cent. The remaining territory is controlled by dozens of militia groups, which number over 50 as per some estimates. In addition to Hezbollah, Iran has also entered the conflict. As per some estimates about 4,000-5,000 Iranian personnel are also fighting along the Syrian forces. The Iraqi Sunni and Shia are also said to be fighting on both sides of the divide, so are the Sunnis (read Salafis) of Lebanon. There are media reports about the Tunisian Salafis’ fighting along the opposition militias.
At present there are about five different currents fighting in Syria. These include: i) the Salafis, ii) Al-Qaeda affiliated groups, iii) the Muslim Brotherhood, iv) the Moderates (including liberal opposition and deserted army officers), v) and the Alawite Shia. The Syrian Kurds are the sixth current, who taking advantage of the chaos, have started their own armed campaign to gain autonomy. Aside from the dozens of opposition militias, there are also regime friendly militias, known as the Shabiha and the Jaysh Al-Sha’bi.
The factor that has got the Saudis, the Qataris, the Americans and the Israelis worrying is the spread of Al-Qaeda affiliated militias; e.g. the Jabhat al-Nusra, the Ahrar ash Sham, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in Hasaka. The Jabhat al-Nusra, also known as Al-Nusra front has publically declared its allegiance to Ayman Al Zawahri. After which it was declared as a terrorist group ironically both by the Syrian regime and the United States. Jabhat al-Nusra is believed to be the most powerful opposition militia. There are reliable reports that most of the weapons distributed by the Saudis and the Qataris have reached the hands of Al-Qaeda affiliated militias.
It is in this context the countries opposed to the Syrian regime have got thinking. If the Americans and Europeans were to launch a military strike against Assad today, the beleaguered regime may not survive more than a few days. The big question though is, ‘What next’.
The scenario that is most probable in post-Assad Syria is a continued civil war amongst multiple militias, the most powerful amongst which are the Salafis and the Al-Qaeda franchises. The deposed regime of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has provided a clue about the things to expect from an Al-Qaeda and the Salafi-controlled Syria with regards to Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Despite its alliance with Iran, the Syria of Assad kept a tacit peace with Israel. The Salafi and Al-Qaeda led Syria may not prove that friendly.
In this context, the best strategy that suits the powers is to maintain a protracted civil war in Syria like that of Afghanistan – a war which doesn’t lead to loss or win of any one party – but continues keeping Syrians occupied amongst themselves to bleed Syria to death. The war may take a decisive turn, only, if Al-Qaeda affiliated groups are weakened by destroying and capturing of their weapons, and more moderate militias are strengthened. In that case the Americans and the Europeans may develop an interest to remove Assad. Till that time, we can expect them to feverishly talk about a negotiated settlement of the conflict.
The writer, a social critic and development professional working with international institutions since 1998, works for United Nations Development Programme and is currently based in Cairo. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author’s and do not represent the position of the UNDP. He can be contacted at: [email protected]
