High hopes, contingent on many factors
Nothing is more complicated than bringing peace to Afghanistan. The Taliban are still the dominant factor in this pursuit of peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan still has some kind of leverage on them. The Afghan President Hamid Karzai should by now have realised that. Peace, however, depends on many factors. There are high hopes of a durable peace in Afghanistan after the US drawdown by 2014. The principle of non-intervention by any power would be the guiding principle to usher an era of tranquillity in Afghanistan. Would powers that be agree to that principle before any peace process could commence in Afghanistan?
As the drawdown comes closer, talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan are becoming crucial to ensure peace in war ravaged country. Over 87,000 NATO troops have to withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014. The Afghan security forces have to fill the vacuum. Afghanistan has remained under the foreign occupation for nearly 21 years of its past 32 years of history. The long foreign occupation also could not resolve Afghanistan’s basic thrust to peace and tranquillity. Instead of foreign occupation, peace could only be brought to Afghanistan through an intra-Afghan dialogue, an Afghan-led peace talks, and an Afghan-owned peace process. Let’s create conditions for this kind of peace process. Every segment of society should be involved including militants and Taliban. The exclusion of any group for whatever reasons could jeopardise the peace process.
Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian neighbours should create such conditions. Pakistan is already on board and Karzai strongly realises it. His day long visit to Islamabad on 26 August that was extended to another day on the request of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, intended to achieve such objectives. To remove strain on their mutual relations, Sharif sent Sartaj Aziz, adviser on national security and foreign affairs, to Kabul on 21 July. Karzai has made around 20 visits to Pakistan, but the recent one was his first to since Sharif took over as prime minister. The meetings were held at Islamabad and Murree.
The foremost point Karzai made to Sharif was to persuade the Afghan Taliban to relocate their office in Qatar and enter into direct talks with Kabul. The members of the Afghan High Peace Council also travelled with Karzai. Taliban, on the other hand, normally refuse to talk to the Karzai government on the premise that it does not represent the sentiments of the Afghan people.
He hinted that that the Taliban office could be relocated to either Saudi Arabia or Turkey. In the past, Pakistan developed strong ties with the Taliban. Besides Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recognised the Taliban government in Kabul. Pakistan also played a strong role in establishing the Taliban office at Doha. The released Taliban by Pakistan played a crucial in bringing them to the negotiating table. It is not clear yet as to why Karzai strongly suggested relocating of the Afghan Taliban office? Is he trying to remove the American pressure? The recently setup High Peace Council by Karzai was designed to initiate the peace process with the Taliban.
How much influence Pakistan has over the Afghan Taliban at the moment would only be confirmed if Pakistan could convince the Afghan Taliban to directly talk to the Karzai administration. One thing looks clear: building of mutual trust between Karzai and Sharif before anything could be achieved in Afghanistan. Both discussed how to break the ice and deadlock between the Afghan Government and the Afghan Taliban.
Pakistan might release more Taliban prisoners in the near future in order to make dialogue a success. The political influence Pakistan exercises over the Taliban has not evaporated yet. Sharif has also a mild attitude toward the Taliban, which the Pakistani media sometimes laments about. The Punjabi Taliban strongly may welcome Sharif’s posture to resolve the Afghan stalemate through talks.
Talks are underway between Pakistan and Afghanistan to start work on a major hydropower project on the Kunar River. Transit trade, Indo-Afghan trade, and Pakistan’s trade with Central Asia are crucial for the building of the Sino-Pakistani economic corridor. Instead of a friendly-regime in Kabul, friendly relations with the government in Kabul should be important for Pakistan to achieve such end.
Pakistan’s position in Afghanistan would be India-centric. The Indian stakes have drastically enhanced during the American occupation of Afghanistan. Not restricting itself to socio-development projects, India has also involved itself in many strategic ones as well. India has used this leverage in Afghanistan against Pakistan including terrorist’s activities in Pakistan’s bordering provinces with Afghanistan. While creating conditions for peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan concerns are also needed to be addressed and without that peace could be as elusive in Afghanistan as ever.
Analysts say that no breakthrough was made during the visit of Karzai as negotiations with the Taliban were not finalised and the Taliban prisoners in Pakistan custody were not released. The fact is that talks between Sharif and Karzai were cantered on these issues. Karzai did not return empty-handed. Hopes and expectations are high. They bridged trust-deficit and provided a ground for the upcoming dialogue. The joint conference between them stressed upon the need of an Afghan-led peace process.
Pakistan fully supports an intra-Afghan dialogue. Practical steps were being discussed between the two leaders to ensure peace in Afghanistan. Political dispensation must work and Pakistan must throw its weight behind finding a political solution to the Afghan stalemate. There should not be any hesitation if Pakistan refreshes and retunes its Afghan policy from military dimensions to political dimensions. It looks that military might be on board with Sharif in pursuing such steps. Many steps were being taken during this visit to that end. Hope that Karzai would stick to his word unlike as happened in the past. If Pakistan succeeds in its Afghan endeavour, it would provide strategic leverage to Pakistan.
Nevertheless, hopes and expectations about the recent contact between Pakistan-Afghanistan are high. Afghanistan’s realisation of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan is understandable. Pakistan under Sharif has been pushing the idea of non-intervention and good neighbourly and a peace process in Afghanistan which is intra-Afghan, and led by the people of Afghanistan including negotiating with the Taliban.
The writer is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad.