Obama must think before he takes the leap
President Obama has reportedly decided to attack Syria after the UN investigators are out of the country on Saturday. This is supported by reports regarding a fifth destroyer having been moved by US Navy into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Obama has not sought approval for the intended military intervention from the UN, nor is he willing to wait till the results of the UN enquiry are made public. Obama did not heed nearly 200 House members from both parties who called on the president to seek formal congressional approval for the military action. Obama’s attempt to hammer together a coalition of the willing received a setback after David Cameron’s defeat in the Commons’ vote over Syria. Obama would thus be initiating the military action with reduced internal support and without the US’ traditional allies.
None of the evidence so far collected by the US or the British intelligence directly implicates Bashar al-Assad in the chemical attack. No explanation has been offered as to what would have motivated Assad and his deputies to carry out an attack of this scale at this time when their military position is by no means desperate. The results of the US military adventure would be harmful for Syria, the Middle East and the Muslim world at large. In case the attacks weaken the hold of the Assad regime, this could lead to Damascus falling to fundamentalist rebels. This would in turn compromise Europes security. While Obama wants to launch a limited cruise-missile strike on military targets, he is ignoring the warning given last month by Gen Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that deeper involvement would be hard to avoid. A similar view was expressed by recently retired head of the US Centcom Gen James Mattis who said “If Americans take ownership of this, this is going to be a full-throated, very, very serious war.” The potential consequences of a US strike include a retaliatory attack by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which supports Assad, on Israel. On Tuesday Iranian lawmakers and commanders issued stark warnings to the United States and its allies saying any military strike on Syria would lead to reprisals against Israel fanned by “the flames of outrage.”
Like the Saddam government in Iraq, Syria under Bashar al-Assad has effectively held back extremist and sectarian forces. The regime change through external intervention would destablise Syria as it did in the case of Iraq. As Sartaj Aziz pointed out in the National Assembly, Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty should be respected and the issue of regime change left to the people of Syria themselves. An action taken by President Obama in haste would be a recipe for disaster. There is a need on the part of the US president to think before he takes the leap.