Why the Arab monarchs are behind it
The Muslim Brotherhood, which was kicked out of power in early July in response to popular protests, has been administered a ruthless treatment by the Egyptian security forces – namely the police and the military. According to the Egyptian ministry of health over 1000 people have been killed in the past one week (mostly Brotherhood members), while the Brotherhood claims that the number of casualties is over 4000.
Despite wide coverage by global media of the excesses of security agencies, the reaction from regional and global powers has been very weak. It has taken some time to the US president to acknowledge the maltreatment of Brotherhood, under significant domestic pressure. Even then the American administration has not even issued a threat to cut the US $1.3 billion in aid to the Egyptian military. Although the Israelis have not expressed any official opinion in favour or against the crackdown on Brotherhood, however there are no two opinions about the fact that Israelis are most delighted with the ouster of Brotherhood government and the treatment being administered to it.
The response from neighbouring Gulf states has been even more interesting. The Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia immediately offered an aid package of US $12 billion to the military supported interim regime to overcome the economic challenges, especially the fuel and electricity shortages, which were experienced most severely in the last weeks of President Morsi. The Saudi King Abdullah has also issued very strong statements supporting the crackdown against Brotherhood. He has assured the Egyptian people of Saudi support and urged the Egyptian security agencies to crush the ‘terrorists’. The UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain governments have also issued similar statements.
In order to understand the Saudi and Gulf support for ouster and crackdown of the Brotherhood we need to go back a little and look at the events of Arab Spring since 2010. When the Arab Spring started in December 2010, it was Saudi Arabia which offered asylum to the deposed Tunisian President, Zain Al Abideen. Next came Egypt and the Kingdom was all for offering asylum to Hosni Mubarak, which fell through as the latter declined to abandon his homeland and decided to stay put, come what may. The Kingdom didn’t offer similar facility to Gaddafi purely due to his arrogance over the years and his denial to leave the country. When time came for Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, the big brother helped broker a controlled transfer of power to his vice-president, through negotiations spread over one and a half years.
The point I am making is that Saudi Arabia and its sister Gulf states have demonstrated a strong inclination to either prolong dictatorial rule in the region or provide asylum to dictators when they were visited by bad luck. Off course Syria is one exception where the Gulf states are sponsoring an anti-regime opposition, but that’s because no one wants a Shia dictator in the centre of Arabia.
As a result of the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, Islamists with inclinations to Salafi school came to power, so ideally one should have expected a welcome gesture from the Kingdom and the principalities of Gulf. However the opposite happened. First because the rise to power of Islamists in the largest Arab country through elections, meant a direct encouragement to Islamists of Saudi Arabia and Gulf to grow aspirations of acquiring power, a bad message for the aristocratic rulers. Secondly, the Egyptian Brotherhood, being the virtual mother of Islamists in Arab states, took upon itself to support Islamists in neighbouring countries in their plans for power, a very bad message, not because the Islamists would come to power, but because they threatened the family states of Arabia.
The threat of Islamists to the Kingdom and principalities was highlighted by the uprisings of not only Shia masses in Southern Saudi Arabia, in Bahrain and in Kuwait, but also the demonstrations by Sunni population of Saudi Arabia during 2011-2012.
So here lies the cause behind extremely strong wording of Saudi king against the Brotherhood of calling virtually 25-30 per cent of the Egyptian population as ‘terrorists’.
The Brotherhood regime not only annoyed the brotherly Muslim countries, but also the arch enemy Israel by its actions. Immediately after coming to power, the Brotherhood brokered a deal between the Hamas and Al Fatah movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, therefore creating the possibility of a unified Palestinian position against the Jewish state. Over the course of past year, the Brotherhood regime also removed restrictions on travel, trade and transportation between Egypt and Gaza thus creating favourable conditions for the Hamas.
Finally, it started supporting its counterpart Syrian Brotherhood against President Assad, when President Morsi declared the Syrian civil war as Jihad and asked Egyptian people to go and fight there. On the face of it, this action was in alignment with the interests of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Gulf states. However, the Egyptian support to opposition fighters in Syria meant the undermining of Saudi and Gulf control over opposition fighters, which thus could create challenges of control in a post-Assad Syria. No wonder then that immediately after deposing of Morsi, the new government delinked itself from the Syrian war.
By supporting the crackdown on Egyptian Brotherhood, the Arabian monarch has given a strong message to Islamists in his own country. Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are already cracking down upon Islamists in their countries. The threat the Gulf kingdoms face to their power comes from two groups, the ethnic Shia, and the Islamist Salafis. The Shia poses serious threat to Bahrain only, where they are 75 per cent of the population. But the Salafi Islamists pose real threat to the power of Saudi royals.
Over the past three hundred years, the Sauds have supported the puritan ventures of Salafis under the patronage of Al Sheikh family. The seeds of this fundamentalist ideology have spread widely in the Saudi society. Now when the crop is ready for harvest, the current monarch is shifting the official position on Salafism, primarily due to the embarrassment that17 Saudi pilots caused to the Kingdom on 9/11. However, it appears the royals are a bit late in the game. Islamists of Saudi Arabia are already opposing the position of Saudi king about the treatment of Egyptian Brotherhood. Many Saudi citizens are writing on Facebook how they disagree with the King’s support for brutalization of Brotherhood. The knowledgeable people believe we might be seeing an Islamist uprising in the Kingdom sooner, rather than later, guised in the garb of a democratic revolution.
The writer is a social critic and a Middle East watcher. He works for the United Nations. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author’s and do not represent the position of UN. Email:cairo0673@gmail.com