Writing on the wall

But can the powers-that-be read that – and act? Time is of the essence

While the Taliban have stepped up their campaign of blood and mayhem, the newly elected government is still mulling over a policy to deal with them. Better late than never, Ch Nisar Ali Khan, the interior minister, has finally come out with an outline of a plan to combat terrorism.

He bitterly complained in a press conference that ‘armchair critics’ were unjustifiably castigating the government for not giving a roadmap to meet the huge challenge. Citing examples of the US, the UK and Sri Lanka he claimed that it takes years to formulate counter-terrorism strategies. Naturally this means that the declared strategy before it becomes policy will take weeks if not months.

The worthy minister while in the opposition was one of the fiercest critics of both the military and the PPP government. He perhaps should be more aware than others that the PML-N government claiming to be the antithesis of the past is expected to come up with a clear and better plan on how to get the nation out of its present morass.

The ruling party is exhorting the nation to show patience by giving the government the space and time to sort out the mess. But the trouble is that the media nurtured on the government-bashing syndrome under a democratic dispensation is simply not willing to do that.

The PPP ostensibly the main opposition party, perhaps still in shock at its abysmal performance in the general elections, is hardily giving the government a tough time. But it is the people of Pakistan who are fed up and demoralised with the lack of response to the pronounced upsurge in terrorism in the past few weeks.

Their travails and deepening sense of insecurity demands immediate solutions rather than an ominous silence from the past apologists of the militants. Now at the helm of affairs, they are expected to deliver on the existential threat confronting the nation.

Hitherto a sense of urgency seemed to have been lacking. The PTI chief preferred to fly to London to rub shoulders with the British royalty on the pretext of his bad back, putting paid to the APC scheduled more than a month ago. Now we are told all parties in the parliament are on board and the APC will finally be held within this month.

The prime minister on the other hand decamped to the holy land virtually for a week after creating a constitutional crisis of sorts in order to make the trip possible on the 27th of Ramadan. Meanwhile, the military is still waiting with bated breath for the civilians to take up a leadership role and own up the war on terror.

The Taliban are quite clear about their objectives. The mad mullahs (as they are portrayed) are on a surer footing and more politically savvy and strategically skilful than the political and military elite supposed to be confronting them. In any case those willing to give their lives as human bombs on the basis of a misplaced notion of religion cannot be easily defeated merely by conventional means.

The TTP had warned the PML-N government against going ahead with the execution of two of its affiliates, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi’s, convicted members. Its spokesman cautioned both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan to stay away from conspiracies being hatched by “pro establishment and pro Indian lobbies.” The government has responded correctly by reportedly deciding to go ahead with the executions.

If the PTI and PML-N – the primary stakeholders – keep on parroting the mantra, ‘this is not our war’, any policy to combat terrorism will be still-born. On the contrary, in order to confront the Taliban all the protagonists must be on the same page.

Talks with the Taliban are a good option – but only provided it is workable. The state can only initiate dialogue from a position of strength. Parleys cannot be held with groups whose declared aim is to foist a system anathema to raison d’être of Pakistan through the barrel of the gun. They have to be defeated through a multi pronged strategy with dialogue, as the end result.

Thankfully perhaps Mian Nawaz Sharif seems to be aware of the urgency of the problem. That is why in an understandably optimistic speech on the Independence Day he assured the nation that he will soon come up with a comprehensive policy.

Similarly the army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has urged creating a national consensus against terrorism. But time is of the essence here. Those at the helm of affairs should take charge by playing a leadership role. Easier said than done, judging in the backdrop of the tension on the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir and a new low in the India-Pakistan relations.

Nisar has mooted the idea of a rapid response force to combat terrorism. Creating another layer of bureaucracy in order to bring all intelligence agencies on the same page will perhaps help.

But will that be enough without a philosophical understanding of the problem? It is contingent upon the political elite, the military and the people to be on the same ideological wavelength for any strategy to succeed.

Who is our biggest enemy: India, Afghanistan or terrorism eating into our very entrails? Whenever there is move by any government to improve relations with India a hidden hand throws a spanner in the works.

Back in 2008 when Zardari took over, both him and Nawaz were euphoric about improving relations with India. The same year in November the Mumbai incident took place.

Now incidents on the LoC have brought relations to a new impasse. Previously in the aftermath of the so-called Lahore process Musharraf launched his Kargil (mis)adventure, which ultimately cost Nawaz his government in October 1999.

Naturally Sharif will meander carefully on the oft-trodden path. Nonetheless time has come to walk the talk. Perhaps following his instincts, he is capable of formulating a correct policy that appeals to common sense as well. But will the closet Taliban within his own party buttressed by the ubiquitous establishment allow him to chalk out the right path?

Of late some analysts have suggested a Taliban emirate in North Waziristan, perhaps in disgust at the Pakistani military’s inability or unwillingness to move against terrorists of different nationalities holed up there. Nisar contrarily thinks drones only kill Pakistanis. As interior minister to get his facts straight he should scan past newspaper files more carefully.

Perhaps the biggest contribution of the proposed APC could be if it is able to evolve a consensus to urge the military to move into North Waziristan. That the military is too thinly stretched owing to tensions with India and if it moves against terrorists in the badlands they will scatter all over the country, are just excuses.

Are these terrorists already not holed up in all the major cities of Pakistan? The south Punjab has been their base for some time now. Even the central Punjab, as is evident from sudden evacuation of the US diplomats from Lahore, is no longer beyond their reach.

Hence those who suggest an emirate of Taliban in North Waziristan should be well aware that the Taliban are eyeing not merely Afghanistan but Pakistan as the coveted prize. Most of us refuse to see this writing on the wall.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.