Post US withdrawal, the Taliban will continue to be Pakistan’s worst nightmare
The leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar is not an oddity in the Afghan-Pakistan tribal belt. The British had their hands full with a series of Mullahs and Faqirs who rallied the Pathans around them and raised the flag of jihad against the ‘infidels’. From the latter half of the 19th century until Pakistan’s Independence, they were a serious pain for the British Indian army. The mullahs had exotic noms de guerre such as Adda Mullah, Manki Mullah, Palam Mullah, Mastan Mullah. In Waziristan the prominent ones were Mullah Powinda and in the 20th century, the legendary Faqir of Ipi.
Mullah Powinda is of particular significance because he was the founder of the original Taliban, in the 1890s. Mohiuddin Mahsud, the king of Taliban, was a cleric who had developed a following in the North Waziristan area. The Mullah ran afoul of the British when he demanded that the political agent in Wana release five of his men. When this was not forthcoming, the Mullah and his men raided the Wana Garrison, killing about a hundred British officers and soldiers. The raiders then melted away into the mountains, trying to lure the British to the forbidding terrain. Eventually, a peace agreement was bought by the British. The uprisings continued and the British had to fight their way into the Tirah, the Malakand Pass as well as Chitral among other smaller campaigns.
Native to the forbidding mountainous terrain of the Khyber and the Suleiman ranges, the Pathans are as tough and rugged a warrior race as any in the world, and have extracted a toll from every conqueror that has passed through the Khyber defile into the plains of South Asia. Alexander the Great’s historians record the torrid resistance that the Apareti, the modern-day Afridis, put up against his army. Brig. Smythe, a Victoria Cross winning British Army officer, wrote in his book that there were no better fighters than the Mahsud. John Masters is on record as saying that the Pathans were the hardest people in the world. Fighting, for the Pathan, has become second nature. It is in his DNA, and if there is no invader to fight, then they are only too happy to fight amongst themselves.
The British considered the North West Frontier a blooding ground for their armies. The Pathans and the Englishmen had a relationship based on a grudging mutual admiration. The English respected the fact that these people looked them in the eye and did not grovel as some others were wont to do. The Political Agents through whom the British ran the tribal areas were almost as loyal to their charges as to their English superiors.
But the British had a vital advantage. The tribesmen were heavily outgunned in infantry and artillery. Whereas the Army had the Martini-Henry repeaters and later the Lee Enfield, the tribesmen used long barreled muzzle loading Jezails with anything from metal balls, to stones to semi-precious gems as ammunition. They had no artillery whereas the British had the mountain artillery.
But in spite of this lack of resources, the Pathans gave the British as good as they got – luring them into the mountainous terrain and causing significant casualties. In this they were motivated by the mullahs who would use psychological ploys, like praying on the fighters’ clothing and telling them that no bullet could pass through them. The fighters also had a penchant for ‘naswar’ and other stronger opiates which bolstered their courage.
But the present day Taliban and all their associated militias are armed to the teeth. They have automatic AK47s and heavy machine guns called Dushaka’s. The game changer for them have been the RPG7 rocket propelled grenade and the suicide bombers. A soldier carrying an RPG with half a dozen rounds can cause as much damage as an artillery gun. This weaponry has enabled the Taliban to take on Pakistan’s army on even terms, causing thousands of casualties, which, the army, to its credit, has borne unflinchingly. With the suicide bombers as the shock troops and armament equal to that of the army, the Taliban are a match for the army in any asymmetric combat situation.
The Mujahideen who defeated the Soviet Union in the 1980s were essentially these same tribesmen. After taking a hammering from the Soviets’ helicopter borne Spetznatz commandos in the initial stages, the Mujahideen got the highly effective Stinger missile by the US smarting from a mauling by the Soviet proxies in Vietnam. With the Stingers bringing down planes by the dozen, the Soviets were forced to move on the ground. That was the beginning of the end. Following a few years of heavy losses, a bruised and battered Russian Bear straggled back across the Amu Darya. The Soviet Union was never the same again.
The Americans left in a hurry, leaving a gaping power vacuum, which was filled by numerous warlords with their fiefdoms all across Afghanistan. Disillusionment among the populace with these rapacious warlords was the reason the Taliban were able to sweep across Afghanistan. Led by a one-eyed mullah by the name of Omar, they established control over most of Afghanistan, by and large peacefully. Though their justice system and their views on women were medieval, they did bring a semblance of order. In the 1990s, Osama bin Laden, Aiman Al Zawahri and their Al-Qaeda leadership sought shelter in Afghanistan after they had been rooted out of Sudan and Yemen. Apart from a multiple cruise missile raid on bin Laden’s camp in Afghanistan to avenge the US embassy bombings, the Taliban were acceptable to the Americans. But then Osama decided to take revenge for the cruise bombing with his own 9/11 attack on the USA. The Americans wanted Osama and Zawahri but Mullah Omar would not or could not hand them over. America invaded and after over a decade of war, with Osama killed in Abbottabad, things are more or less in a stalemate. The Americans may claim victory, but there really is no enemy to be seen to be defeated.
What is the raison d’être of these Taliban groups and what is the source of their funding? That is a million dollar question. Some Taliban groups pay their soldiers $10 per day as salary. Others rely on drug smuggling, kidnapping for ransom and robbery. Being a Taliban is a good option for the uneducated, highly indoctrinated youth. They get money, arms and they can settle some personal scores as well. The suicide bomber is also an industry where the going rate has been around $20,000. Contrary to popular perception, most suicide bombers are not children of drone attack victims bent on revenge. There is, in place, a regular system where children are brainwashed, trained and heavily drugged for this ghastly mission.
Where the funding for these groups comes from is anybody’s guess. There are different groups of Taliban, some funded by the Middle Eastern countries, some by the Americans and some by our Eastern neighbour. Pakistan also favours some Taliban in the belief that when the Americans leave, they will have a say in who comes into power in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s nightmare scenario would be a pro-India Northern Alliance coming into power and as a result, having to defend against two hostile nations. The Afghans have never accepted the Durand Line as the border and lay a historic claim to much of the Pakistan frontier areas. A hostile Afghanistan with India always looking for ways to bully it, the future direction that Afghanistan takes is of vital importance to Pakistan. Strategic depth is essentially a non-issue. It is the two-front threat that is causing sleepless nights for Pakistani defence planners.
If all this is not enough, there are other interested parties who would like to keep stirring the pot. The American military-industrial complex has its interests to foster. The drug cartels would not be happy if their supply of opium was disrupted. The dogs of war who attack the supply convoys and have made fortunes would like things to stay as they are. The Americans have figured out ways to attack Al-Qaeda without exposing their soldiers and without collateral damage. They even supply their troops with remotely piloted helicopters. Their special forces continue to attack the enemy at night. They will keep their main bases, supply them by air and continue their control over the war ravaged country. The Taliban will continue to be Pakistan’s worst nightmare, kidnapping, robbing and blowing up people in their pursuit of some convenient ideological objective. And the Saudis and the Iranians will continue to fight their ideological war on Pakistan soil. The light at the end of the tunnel is a train going the other way. The business of war is going along very well, thank you.