The mother of all elephants

Where do these fanciful ideas emerge from and germinate into national projects?

The prime minister has stated recently that he plans to build a bullet train between Karachi and the North of Pakistan. Hopefully, this is pre election rhetoric that has spilled over to the present. It seems to be a mindset that is convinced that mega projects can result in increased popularity regardless of the costs.

Bullet trains are high speed transportation systems that require special dedicated tracks that can safely handle trains traveling at speeds in excess of 250kms per hour. They are prohibitively expensive because of the cost of land, the rail system itself and the switching systems that would handle the crossing of the trains as they zip across the length of the country.

The predicted cost of this fanciful idea has been quoted as US$20 million per kilometer. At that rate the cost of the completed project would be $32 billion. In Europe, where distances are much smaller, the TGV tickets can cost upwards of Euro200. Even if we take this figure without considering the far greater distances in Pakistan, the ticket cost from Karachi to Peshawar would be well over Rs20,000, whereas an airline ticket is less than half that. Under those terms and conditions it is unlikely that the bullet train would be a common man’s choice of transportation. The only option left for the government would be to heavily subsidise the project. This would essentially turn it into the mother of all white elephants.

So where do these fanciful ideas emerge from and germinate into national projects? Are they the result of years of research and planning so as to ensure the viability of a project that would take a huge chunk out of the nation’s meager development resources? Or are they the figment of the whims of leaders who do not take kindly to others questioning their wisdom and vision? These are valid questions and reflect a mindset that could be dangerously detrimental to the greater good.

Pakistan’s transportation issues are very real and could escalate exponentially as the population increases and the already overstressed roads deteriorate. Most of our goods are carried by overloaded trucks that pay scant attention to the load per axle that is essential for the maintainability of the roads. The weigh stations on the M2 seem to be rather cursory because the overloading has resulted in ruts on the motorway. In order to carry the heavy loads that increase the profits on their trips, the truck drivers overinflate the tires and when they apply the brakes, the tires cut through the tarmac like a knife. This is the main cause of the sorry conditions on our roads.

The cheapest form of transportation of goods is by waterway and the second cheapest is by train. In the nineteenth century, the British had built the Indus flat bottomed steam flotilla that could travel from Karachi and come all the way up to Lahore. This is not possible anymore because of the barrages built on the Indus. The cheapest form of goods transportation now available is therefore, by rail. The prime minister should see fit to address this issue as it would take a lot of pressure off the roads. However, he could, quite possibly, annoy the truck owners’ cartel that would use every lever at their disposal to dissuade him. But then, the good decisions are not the most convenient to make. They are often times a bitter pill to be swallowed for the greater good.

As far as transporting people on the railroads is concerned, the railways authorities need to treat their service like a critically ill patient. They should first stabilize it, make sure the vital signs are steady and then look for means to make the trains run on time and at an affordable cost. The present rails in our system are designed for a maximum speed of 125 km per hour. Even if the speed is reduced to 110KPH, this would result in a traveling time between Karachi and Islamabad of around 12 hours. In an air conditioned, overnight train at a reasonable cost it would work brilliantly. Board the train at 8pm, have dinner, watch a movie, sleep and wake up in Karachi ready for a full business day. This is the most that we can hope for under the present economic constraints. A bullet train would be as useful for the common man as a hole in the head.

Similarly, with the roads. The M2 between Islamabad and Lahore was hailed initially, as something that would bring an economic revolution in the country, with industrial parks at every exit. Again. a fanciful projection. Motorways do not bring progress. Progress brings motorways. In reality, the old Grand Trunk Road is a shorter, faster way to travel between the two cities. On the GT road, the car travels at 90KPH, consuming much less fuel than the motorway, where it maintains speeds of 120KPH. The GT road is 100KPH shorter and the tolls are cheaper. The road is also quite reasonable, with dual carriage most of the way. The cost of travel on the GT road is half that of the motorway and on top of that, the GT road gets you there faster. What if the GT Road had been converted into a motorway with flyovers over all the towns that appear every 25KMs? The journey would have been of two and a half hours as opposed to the motorway’s five hours. The cost would have been a fraction of the billion dollars plus of the motorway. Much has been made about the motorway connecting other cities in Punjab with Islamabad and Lahore via the motorway. This simply does not hold water. The purpose of any motorway is to provide the fastest, shortest, most economical connection between two points. The rest is secondary and can be achieved through more roads built for the purpose. But to make a motorway a hundred kilometers longer for that doubtful purpose is really stretching credulity.

Compare the M2 with the Islamabad Peshawar Motorway, the M1. This motorway is shorter than the GT Road, is made from local resources and was therefore much cheaper to build. Astonishingly, it reduces the traveling time between the two cities from three hours to one and a quarter hours. It saves time, saves money. Communications is all about time and space and the Peshawar motorway wins hands down.

The Lahore Metro Bus also seems to be a project conceived and executed in haste. In a previous piece, the Metro had been compared to the Delhi Metro underground. The comparative costs per kilometer were about twenty percent higher for the Delhi Metro but it is a subway like those found in most of the great cities of the world. It has also run at a profit from day one while the Lahore Metro would be requiring extensive subsidies. The electricity driven underground is much more efficient and environment friendly as well.

As the new PML-N government settles into its stance after taking guard, it should refrain from whimsical and popularity generating gimmicks like laptops, sasta tandoors, bullet trains et al. They have been given a huge mandate and have no need to garner cheap popularity for at least four years. It is essential that they start focusing on the ground realities of projects that can lift the country by its bootstraps, from the ground up.`