Who is playing who?
The South Asian Great Game is unfolding in quite an intriguing way. Despites the rhetoric on both sides, the interdependence of Pakistan and India is only increasing. India needs Pakistan for its Look West policy to work, while continuing quagmire in Afghanistan makes it imperative for Pakistan to focus towards East, and to benefit from the dynamic trade there.
This is not all; China and US both have tremendous stakes in the Asia Pacific and how the South Asian equation plays out. As an emerging power, China is pushing zealously to secure its influence in the immediate neighbouring regions. On the other hand, US being an established player, is unlikely to relent easily. The recent high level traffic from US and China to the region needs to be examined within this context. In addition to other variables, the temperature of US-China ties will have no less of an impact on the Pakistan-India ties, and by this connection, even Afghanistan.
Whether Pakistan and India go all the way in the interests of their respective strategic partners, China and US, will be interesting to watch. Moreover, to what extent these interests are perceived as win-win or zero-sum, will pretty much define the next stage.
US Vice President Joe Biden’s four-day visit to India got underway on Monday, 22 July. The items discussed included trade, environment and security. Biden’s visit to India took place soon after John Kerry visited the country in June.
There is continuity of high-level exchanges between India and the US. A number of the think tanks in Washington have taken it as their mission to move the strategic partnership between the two nations along. The most US and Pakistan could pull together was the meagerly Dubai business conference held in June, mostly attended by US embassy officials and businessmen from Pakistan, including Pakistani businessmen of American origin. The traders that did attend complained why the conference was not held in Pakistan or the US. The answer to this question pretty much lays it all.
The recent high level American visits to India are matched by similar leadership contacts between China and Pakistan. The new Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, completed a five-day official visit to China in early July. During the trip, deals worth billions of dollars were reportedly signed between the two, including the development of Pak-China Economic Corridor and the associated Kashgar-Gwadar project. The project includes developing of rail and road links between Gwadar port and Kashgar. Pakistan had previously handed over the management of the strategic Gwadar port to China.
Earlier, in late May, the new Chinese premier visited the region, and before coming to Pakistan he first went to India. The trip took place soon after the confrontation between the two militaries in the Ladakh region. By visiting India first, and while Karzai was also there demanding Indian military’s help, China conveyed to all three nations it gives more importance to economic and trade relations as opposed to security concerns. While Pakistan and China have a strategic partnership, China has also been deepening its economic and trade ties with both India and Afghanistan.
The implied message was likely meant to positively influence Pakistan’s ties with India and Afghanistan. However, the Chinese point is likely to be only valid as long as India does not play a countering role as part of the American pivot to the Pacific. If India does take on that role, the fate the BRICS and its full membership to SCO will both be jeopardised.
The US is increasingly looking at India to get involved in Afghanistan’s security affairs. The country is, however, reluctant to take on this task wholeheartedly for obvious reasons. Acting as a strategic partner to distant powers and at the cost of adverse ties with immediate neighbours, is never a wise strategy. Without improvement in Pakistan-India ties, Indian economic or military role in Afghanistan will continue to be looked with much suspicion in Pakistan.
The dilemma for India is thus that in the absence of improved ties with Pakistan, it can allow it to be the beneficiary of what transpires in Afghanistan, and after having spent about $2 billion dollars in economic assistance.
Moreover, included in the Indian consideration is the impact of Afghan reconciliation on the rest of the jihadist panorama in Pakistan. After dilly-dallying for a while, the emerging American policy appears to have delinked the two for the time being. How India digests this American de-hyphenation would probably decide if Indian political help towards Afghanistan would be forthcoming. Meanwhile, India may link its assistance in Afghanistan with the role the US wants it to play in the Pacific.
In essence, how the US-China equation evolves will have a significant impact on Pakistan-India ties, and perhaps Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, the US has allowed Chinese to invest, and has simultaneously been pushing for improvement in the Pakistan-India ties. However, when it comes to the Pacific, intentions are not as transparent. And, now China appears to be reciprocating in kind by getting more economically involved in Latin America.
As Singapore’s legendary leader Lee Kuan Yew puts it, “Peace and security in the Asia Pacific will turn on whether China emerges as xenophobic, chauvinistic force, bitter and hostile to the West because it tried to slow down or abort its development, or educated and involved in the ways of the world, more cosmopolitan, more internationalised and outward looking.”
As far as South Asia is concerned, the worse part is that both Pakistan and India have allowed themselves to be played and taken for a ride. The cost of this strategy has been much steeper for Pakistan than India, especially considering its security and economic perils. The two nations have much more at stake in creating win-win scenarios and to not allow their future to be relegated to the interests of other powers.
On the other hand, if the US and China apply a concerted approach towards the Indo-Pak, the region can go through a transformation, with developments not seen just in the zero-sum context. This obviously is much easier said than done.
The writer is chief analyst at PoliTact, a Washington based futurist advisory firm (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at aansar@politact.com