A year of changes in the top echelons

The people pine for qualitative difference

The PPP handed over power to the PML-N with the swearing in of Nawaz Sharif on June 5. On September 8, Asif Ali Zardari would be replaced by a PML-N nominated President. This would mark the end of the latest PPP tenure that began in 2008. Next to leave would be Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani whose second term as COAS ends on November 28. The change will go full circle with the retirement of CJ Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry on December 19. Thus the entire political and top military and judicial leadership that has dominated the scene for half a decade would be substituted. The PPP ruled the country for full five years, a feat performed for the first time by any elected government in Pakistan. Gen Kayani retained his office for two terms spread over six years while Justice Chaudhry appointed as CJ in 2005 completed almost seven years as a functioning SC chief while remaining deposed for about two years.

The Nawaz government which won 185 NA seats in a house of 342 enjoys a secure majority on its own beside enjoying the support of a number of other parties. The position provides it a strength that the PPP which depended on allies for maintaining a majority could only dream of. The PML-N would thus have no excuse if it fails to deliver on its promises.

Other changes too are likely to favour Nawaz Sharif.

The appointment of a low profile loyalist as president implies that all power would henceforth be concentrated into the hands of the prime minister. Unlike the PPP administration where Zardari made all policy decisions despite having been rendered a symbolic figure after the 18th amendment, Nawaz will be the de jure as well as de facto chief executive of the country.

The army has continued to wield disproportionate influence despite Gen Kayani vowing that the military would play no role in politics. The army formulated policies regarding relations with the US, India and Afghanistan. Balochistan has been administered by the prime security agencies and the FC during the last five years. Former Prime Minister Gilani was made by the GHQ to beat a hasty retreat on the stand regarding the US operation in Abbottabad. General Pasha accused the political leadership of ‘ignorance, indifference and lack of a reading culture’ before the Abbotabad Commission, “A thinking process does not exist, hence there is no formulation of any policy,” he claimed. The general got away with his remarks.

In view of the strong position enjoyed by the PML-N in the National Assembly, it could alter the existing army-civil government balance of power in the wake of Kayani’s departure. The opportunity could be lost if recourse is taken to ill conceived moves like the one by the PPP government announcing the transfer of ISI control to the interior ministry and then being forced to take back the orders within hours. The type of confrontation that Nawaz had with various army chiefs during the 1990s too wouldn’t help. The supremacy of the civilian government can only be established through institutional arrangements that allow the military also to provide inputs while the Prime Minister takes the final decision. A way out could be the strengthening of the Defence Committee of the Cabinet (DCC) and manning it with highly qualified and professional secretariat comprising experts and academics.

The departure of CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry would be a major event. Governments are generally unhappy with judicial overreach, which they consider an uncalled for interference in their exclusive domain. Justice Chaudhry’s departure, who is an ardent supporter of suo motu action by the courts, would therefore be welcomed by the party in power, particularly the PML-N which does not have a history of cordial relations with the courts. The statement by PML-N information secretary Mushahidullah that his party would seriously consider extension in service of CJP Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry is being interpreted as no more than a tactical move.

It remains to be seen however if the next CJ is not similarly keen on public interest litigation. In the ultimate analysis much will depend on the government itself. Unless it is responsive to the people’s problems, acts honestly and ensures the rule of law, there is no guarantee against the SC taking suo motu notice of its acts of omission or commission.

The PML-N government enjoys a strength not possessed by its predecessor. The question is how it decides to use it.

The PML-N will handle the economy better than the PPP, it is maintained by some. Like Nawaz Sharif, Ayub Khan too was a supporter of the business class and made policies that led to the concentration of wealth in the hands of so-called 22 families. The promise of profits trickling down to the rest of the population however failed to materialise leading to unprecedented social upheaval and removal of the military ruler. Under Shaukat Aziz growth improved at the rate of 6.4 per cent to 9.0 per cent a year but it failed to generate jobs for the unemployed. The king’s party was therefore routed in the 2008 elections. The common man is not interested in figures. To be any use to him development has to reveal itself in the rise in living standards, a visible reduction in unemployment, better facilities for education, health, housing and transport.

Will the government take note of the grave injustices that continue to be done to women? Will laws that militate against the women and religious minorities be modified? Keeping in view the right wing leanings of the PML-N leadership, little movement is expected in the direction unless the opposition and the civil society are mobilized to undo the wrongs.

Will there be good governance under the PML-N? Will it appoint outstanding professionals to head key public sector enterprises through open competition? The appointment of Shujaat Azeem as adviser to the prime minister on aviation is not an auspicious beginning. Again, will the privatization be transparent?

Will the PML-N government bear with the criticism of its policies in media? The way some of the ministers have reacted to media questions raises concerns.

Will the PML-N rid the country of terrorism? The initial draft of its anti terrorism policy prepared early this month indicated the party was clueless over the issue. Unless the government comes out of the illusion that the TTP can be talked into laying down arms, little is going to change. Mantras like “dismantle, contain, prevent, educate and reintegrate” won’t work. Equally important is for the army to realize that the induction of the Afghan Taliban in government will encourage militants in Pakistan. NACTA is fine if the assessment of the motives of TTP and the Afghan Taliban is correct, which is not the case presently.

While many faces that adorned the newspapers every other day would now slide into the background, what remains to be seen is if there is any qualitative change in the way things were being done during the last five years.

The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.