The future of PPP under Zardari

The acid test: Local Bodies elections

Asif Ali Zardari’s tenure as president will end on September 8. On August 6 a new head of state will be elected to take Zardari’s place a month after. There is no legal bar on Zardari to maintain the office of the PPP co-chairman once he has quit the presidency. He can then concentrate on reorganizing the PPP which has been trounced in the elections and is totally demoralized like never before.

The PPP is now confined to just one province, with insignificant parliamentary presence in others. Will Zardari be able to infuse a new spirit in PPP and prepare it for the major battle that lies ahead: the local bodies elections? If the PPP loses the local bodies elections as badly as it has the general elections, its health will deteriorate further, making the revival that more difficult.

Zardari faces a highly demanding task that would test his mettle. The PPP-led coalition introduced vital constitutional amendments that returned the basic law to its original federal and parliamentary form, extended the limits of provincial autonomy, increased the share of the provinces in the federal pool and introduced a consensus NFC Award.

The PPP, however, paid little attention to the plight of the common man. It looked the other way as unemployment and poverty increased. The PPP government failed to bring peace to Karachi which witnessed unending lawlessness and bloodshed throughout its tenure. The PPP’s performance in Balochistan was abysmal as it did nothing to stop the forced disappearances of thousands and the torture and killing of the Baloch by the hundreds. The minorities continued to be persecuted with the party not taking a stout stance, not the least in Sindh which once had the tradition of peace and communal harmony. That one of its own MNAs was involved in forced conversions of Hindu girls that led scores of the Hindu families to migrate to India, indelibly blots the party’s paper. Not standing up when one of its own, Salmaan Taseer was assassinated by a bigot also tarnished its credentials.

The PPP had presented itself as a secular party which stood for the downtrodden. Despite the feudal character of its leadership the party had developed a niche for itself in the working class. It also acquired a special attraction for women and minorities. Before the emergence of the PTI, the PPP was the only party with jiyalas – a highly motivated cadre of workers whose devotion and commitment was a unique standout. The 2008-13 tenure saw a gradual alienation among the party cadre as majority of the leadership got involved in power politics and corruption – totally ignoring the party.

Reviving the PPP thus would be a Herculean task for the present leadership.

There are some who think that Zardari would leave the country because of threats to his life. Zardari no doubt faces challenges from the militants. It is maintained that the killing of his security chief Bilal Sheikh last week was in fact a message to Zardari. But he is not the only political leader to have received the threats. Four attempts were made on the life of Musharraf between 2000 and 2007. The man is back again in the country to take part in politics, disregarding the threats from the TTP. Similarly the ANP chief Asfandyar Wali was targeted by a suicide bomber in October 2008. Four ANP activists died in the attack. The interior minister under Musharraf, Aftab Sherpao, who presently heads the Qaumi Watan Party survived two suicide attacks in April and October 2007. The latter took toll of 57 lives. The militants launched two suicide attacks on Maulana Fazlur Rehman in March 2011, the JUI chief escaping by the skin of his teeth.

This is not to mention Benazir Bhutto, who knew that her life was in danger with threats from multiple quarters yet had the courage to come back and die with her boots on.

Zardari has faced threats but has never been attacked. If a number of other leaders continue to participate in national politics in Pakistan why must he shy away?

With Bilawal already out of the country for security reasons, Zardari can ill afford to follow suit. It would be like a captain abandoning the ship and its passengers at a time of grave crisis. In case the co-chairman was to leave the country, the PPP is likely to become dysfunctional. This is what happened during Benazir Bhutto’s decade of exile – first self and then state imposed, despite her being hyperactive in maintaining contact from abroad.

When Benazir left Pakistan in 1997, the PPP was a part of the alliance led by Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan. The party officials attended all the meetings called by the veteran leader who tried his level best to create a movement against Musharraf. This required bringing out the PPP workers en masse. The calls issued from the alliance’s platform however failed to motivate the PPP activists. The Nawabzada finally decided to appeal to Benazir to return and lead the movement. It took five more years for her to return. The moment Benazir landed in the country in 2007, the PPP was galvanized into action.

The PPP has all along been dependent on the Bhutto family, which now includes Zardari too. Ever since the party’s inception successive party bosses have discouraged the growth of alternate leadership. There have been internecine rivalries among the PPP leaders, often promoted by the top leadership, with the result that no single entity commands the loyalty of the PPP workers. While this has stood in the way of splits in the PPP, which Ziaul Haq and Pervez Musharraf unsuccessfully tried to effect, the party invariably turns into an inert mass in the absence of the party chief.

Zardari has to play the leading role after Bilwal Bhutto’s failure to fill the gap left by BB’s death. Bilawal has so far disappointed those who expected him to replace his mother. He is too young and has yet to go through the baptism of fire that would test his abilities. The PPP chairman has yet to grow into a political figure capable of commanding respect on his own. He has to come out of the repetitive chant “they killed my mother, now they want to kill us.” Only time will tell if politics is really Bilawal’s cup of tea.

While Zardari has a canny aptitude for making alliances, it remains to be seen whether he has the ability to infuse a new life in a much demoralised PPP. Reviving the party after the humiliating defeat in elections is no ordinary matter. Nor is the task of making it a popular party after five years of total neglect of the common man and the party organization.

Neither the PML-N nor the PTI has a secular outlook. They are not willing even to modify the Zia era laws that discriminate against minorities and women. The working class and the urban poor have no place in their programmes. They look for a party that cares for them. This was once PPP’s constituency. After the betrayal during 2008-13, it would be hard to bring them back to the PPP. The least that is needed to resurrect the PPP is to make radical changes in its programme, evolve collective leadership and make inner-party working more democratic. This will loosen the dynastic hold. But will Zardari agree to this?

The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.