After much dillydallying and procrastination, Pakistan seemed to have picked IP Pipeline over TAPI at the tail-end of PPP’s tenure, which basically signaled the funeral of the Pakistani foreign policy rulebook as we knew it. Any government that stands up to global antagonism, does not bow down to external pressure and takes a decision that is supposed to cater to the national interest deserves rapturous plaudits and the support of the nation. But since PPP’s Ironman move came after the government had packed its bag and was standing on the departure terminal, the approbation understandably transformed into cynicism and shrunk IP into a bitter lollipop gift wrapped for the PML-N government to suck on – and suck, it did.
And so, with scepticism engulfing IP, does that mean we need to take retracting baby steps towards TAPI?
It has always been the ‘A’ in TAPI that has ensured that the pipeline isn’t perceived to be as scrumptious as IP. The ramifications of the War on Terror in Afghanistan, and the precariousness of country’s north has meant that the project has been about as secure a bet as putting a wager on a horse with West Nile Virus to triumph in a national derby. But maybe there is now a cure in store for this disease.
With the US absconding from Afghanistan in 2014 and in turn leaving a massive imperialistic hole behind, perhaps it can be filled with something considerably less disruptive. A pipeline that links the region together through energy sharing might be a good way to do precisely that, especially since the Afghan government would be getting eight percent of the total revenue generated by the project.
TAPI pipeline bears an uncanny resemblance to Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, not only in terms of its Central Asian origin, respective lengths (1,735 km and 1,768 km) or the fact that it gave global diplomats a continuum of sleepless nights. The most pivotal factor in both the projects is the support of the oil and gas companies. Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is a prime example of how when deals are signed with resource owning firms, the companies ensure the supply stability and the project’s security. This is precisely why mustering enthusiastic energy companies to splash the cash on TAPI is going to be pivotal if the project is going to become a reality. And of course, there are few better alternatives to stabilise Afghanistan – and Pakistan – than fiscally lucrative projects, especially if a lot of the transit dough is invested in social projects in the volatile regions.
TA PI, a project carrying up to 33 billion cubic metres of annual gas, can lay down a protracted pipeline-web in the region that can link together friends and foes alike, as differences make way for the fulfillment of energy needs. The starting point of the pipeline will be Shymkent in South Kazakhstan and it would continue in Uzbekistan. This would basically open up the massive Russian gas reservoirs to the project as well, much to the benefit of State Gas Systems of Pakistan and GAIL limited in India.
This pipeline-web would further strengthen Russian linkage with Central Asia, in turn helping Moscow extend its geopolitical axis to the Middle East to counter the US influence in the region. The Central Asian states would find suitors for their energy reservoir and Afghanistan would have enough of the energy firm’s capital at stake for the region to work hard to ensure tranquility in the country. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan would be bridging their respective energy deficits, both of which despite being of varying scales still penetrate the realm of gravity. Lastly, the project would also have the best wishes of the US, who’d rejoice at the fact that Pakistan – arguably the most pivotal country for the formation of the aforementioned pipeline web – might be lured away from IP for good, dealing a massive blow to Tehran’s quest of narrowing its fiscal deficit after being the global butt of various sanctions. TAPI is a win-win project on many a front.
Working for TAPI’s sustenance does not connote burying IP for good. In a perfect world TAPI, IP and CASA-1000 – a 1,227-km electricity transmission line between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan – should all go through sans any raised eyebrows or twisted arms. But in the real world, projects need to be prioritised according to their feasibility, unless of course they’re designed to be publicity stunts designed as spanners to be thrown in the electoral works.
The looming sanctions, IP’s skewed gas per unit price – one of the factors that deterred India away from the project – and complete dependence on a country that is dealing in matchboxes in a region that is a TNT hankering after an excuse to explode, all hike up the risk factor in IP. TAPI on the other hand, despite the involvement of a bad boy of its own – Afghanistan – is considerably safer both economically and geopolitically. What we need to realise is that the War on Terror is reaching its culmination in Afghanistan, while Iran is quite possibly on the verge of nuclear war with Israel (and the US). And the ‘hazardous’ label that has given TAPI the thumbs-down historically and cautioned Pakistan from pursuing the pipeline project, can now be seen pasted atop IP in bright yellow colour.
The writer is Energy and Finance Correspondent, Pakistan Today. Email: khulduneshahid@gmail.com; Twitter: @khuldune