Would a total US pullout create a civil war?
Amidst reports that the United States is considering a full troop withdrawal by mid-2014, the Afghan Taliban have started playing hard ball on the diplomatic front to protest against the fracas over its Qatar office. Reports suggest that the Taliban have closed their Doha office, opened to facilitate peace talks, at least temporarily to protest against demands to remove a sign that identified the movement as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban had chosen to put up its old white flag against Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s protests against the name and flag. The decision has come at an inopportune time for the Afghan government, which was recently told that the US government was considering the option of a full troop withdrawal while the Pakistan government has also talked up concerns over attitudes from across its western border and said that the situation could spiral into a civil war.
A report printed in The New York Times has suggested that President Obama is “frustrated by his dealings with President Hamid Karzai” and is “seriously considering speeding up the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and to a “zero option” that would leave no American troops there after next year”. While the US commitment to leaving Afghanistan by the end of 2014 has been known, the exact perimeters of the withdrawal are only now coming into light. The US has not been happy with Karzai’s trigger happy response to the process of talks that was due to begin in Qatar and pressure from the Afghan president to reach a “long-term security deal” over the number of US troops and funds available to Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. In a recent videoconference between Obama and Karzai, the Afghan president was said to have accused the US of trying to negotiate a separate peace with the Taliban and Pakistani government.
While Obama insisted that “American lives were also being lost”, it is the Afghan government that appears increasingly more cornered. The option of a complete US troop withdrawal is scary, as it could mean the Taliban could sweep Afghanistan once again. Perhaps the US is using the option as a negotiating tactic with the Afghan government, but an Iraq-type situation may come about, where a long-term deal was not reached as no compromise was agreed. The ‘Zero Option’, as it is being called, is now gaining more credence in the corridors of the US government as Pakistani officials have warned a prolonged civil war in Afghanistan may ensue if the Afghan reconciliation process fails. The question really is: is the US using a pressure tactic or proposing something feasible? Put in a tight corner, Afghanistan may go on attack against Pakistan. The fear that a civil war could ensue is a serious one and the US needs to keep it in mind, but Pakistani officials also need to be wary not to be seen as being behind the closure of Qatar office by Taliban.