Strategic illusions

Need for out of the box thinking

While the stage is being set by the US to open talks with the Taliban in Qatar, efforts are afoot to evolve a new security policy to combat terrorism within Pakistan. After a meeting with heads of security and intelligence agencies Ch. Nisar Ali Khan has announced withdrawal of Rangers and FC from VIP security.

The federal interior minister, perhaps mistakenly, thinks that lack of coordination amongst these agencies is the root cause of rampant terrorism in the country. However it is an undeniable fact that neither the political leaders nor the military are on the same page on how to deal with the menace.

While in the opposition, it was one thing to declare that drones will be shot down. It is quite another being in the government and to decide on how to make the US desist from using the most potent weapon in its arsenal to eliminate terrorists holed up in our badlands. That when the Pakistan Army owing to strategic reasons refuses to conduct any operation in North Waziristan.

While the political elite continues to suffer from inertia, widespread terrorism in the post election period has hit the country hard. Ironically the PTI perceived to be a champion of downing the drones and opening talks with the Taliban is bearing the brunt of their wrath in KP.

It has lost two of its MPs in the past few weeks at the hands of the terrorists. In this sense the PTI has replaced the ANP that suffered in the same manner while in power in the province. If Imran Khan and his neo-politicos had assumed that the militants would spare them, they have been in for a rude shock.

Despite getting a drubbing at the hands of the TTP, the PTI leadership has failed to condemn these attacks in unequivocal terms. The provincial information minister did not want to name those who have claimed responsibility for the killings. Putting the blame on the federal government he meekly demanded that it should change its foreign policy and start negotiating with the militants.

Similarly Ch. Nisar Ali when asked pointedly to condemn the Lashkar e Jhangvi for the dastardly attack, killingwoman and children in Quetta, he simply ducked the question. Instead, while lamenting, ‘Bonapartist tendencies in the Army’, he chose to unnecessarily name the former ISI chief Gen. Shuja Pasha.

Notwithstanding the murky history of civilian-military relations, especially with the PML-N, was this the right occasion to settle personal scores? Mian Nawaz Sharif should be especially wary of his close advisors delivering loose balls.

The prime minister in his first two weeks in the saddle has been ominously quiet on major policy issues. Perhaps he is too busy sorting out the economic crisis, or for the time being he is keeping his cards close to his chest.

Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown; facing a crisis like situation understandably the prime minister has a worried look on his face. However he has to take the lead role on issues that need immediate attention. His roadmap for economic recovery, already somewhat stalled, cannot bear fruition without successfully tackling terrorism.

Before taking oath, Sharif made some bold overtures to India. They need to be followed up. Notwithstanding our outdated security paradigm, we simply cannot afford to continue with a dual-front security paradigm. It is obsolete and simply not sustainable.

The PML-N government has increased the defence outlay in the budget. But will it be enough to keep up with the emerging realities? The prime minister has to play a lead role to evolve a consensus with the military and the political elite on how to deal with terrorism and fast changing strategic realities in the region.

We must have a debate within our policy-making echelons on how relevant is the strategic depth syndrome in the backdrop of fast shifting regional and internal compulsions. Without making our Eastern borders relatively secure, it will be impossible for our security apparatus to deal with the hydra-headed monster of terrorism.

The basic question that begs an answer: what is a bigger threat to Pakistan? Those elements that do not believe in a democratic Pakistani state as envisaged by Iqbal and Jinnah or across the border from India? Similarly we cannot afford for the non-state actors to use Pakistani territory with impunity like in the past.

Right now Pakistan is bleeding from within and there is little light at the end of the tunnel. Mian Nawaz Sharif has an historic opportunity to make an all out effort to meander the labyrinth of our present strategic confusion.

Pakisatn is taking due credit for brokering the Qatar process. However if it does not play its cards right there is a danger that Islamabad will once again be left isolated in the end game.

Hamid Karzai has protested at the manner he has been left out of the impending US- Taliban parleys. Karzai’s anger and resentment is quite understandable: the Afghan president is history, rendered irrelevant in the emerging scheme of things. The Afghan Taliban returning to Kabul under a so-called power sharing arrangement is a fait accompli whatever the outcome of the Qatar talks.

This is good for Pakistan’s strategic war gamers. However equally worrisome are the frayed US Pakistan relations.

The US Secretary of State John Kerry has been unable to fit Pakistan in his current Asia trip. According to the State Department, it is a scheduling problem rather than a snub. Nonetheless on the eve of the Talban opening an office in Qatar ostensibly with Islamabad’s help, it will be perceived as a deliberate omission.

Pakisatn is currently engaged with the IMF negotiating a US $5 billion bailout package. Hence notwithstanding the verbosity while in the opposition, the PML-N government needs US blessings to somewhat extricate itself from its present economic morass.

Sharif has kept the foreign and defence portfolios with himself. He should make good use of them to be seen taking a lead role. He has an able and trusted advisor in the form of Sartaj Aziz. But infighting between the advisor and the special assistant Tariq Fatmi is creating unnecessary confusion.

Lines should be clearly drawn if Sharif desires to do some out of the box thinking in the domain of foreign policy and national security. His honeymoon with the media is already wearing thin. Time will run out on him even before he knows. Hence, he has to act fast.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today