Emerging circle of power in Pakistan

And how it suits internal and external power brokers

A new circle of power is fast emerging in the post-election Pakistan which suits internal and external power brokers against the backdrop of terrorism and expected US withdrawal from the region.

The dynamics of this circle should be viewed within the changing political landscape in the neighboring Afghanistan where America prepares to get most of its troops out of the area by the next year. It needs a safe passage to get out of Afghanistan which is also cheaper economically and it appears Pakistan can serve the purpose.

To achieve this goal, however, the US needs a politically stable environment in Pakistan and military appears to be ready to deliver the goods for various reasons. First, it needs the valuable military equipment and armaments the US troops will be leaving behind simply because it will be expensive to transport the used machinery and equipment out of the area.

Pakistan army, with its well organized logistic cell, can also assist US troops to transport the equipment to its own seaports. This also means millions of dollars for armed forces if it’s successful in striking a good deal with the US administration.

However the army has to convince the Americans that it’s in full control to safely transport their equipment across Pakistan without any hindrance. That’s where the conservative parties, with a new political mandate based in the Af-Pak bordering areas of Balochistan and Khyber Paktoonkhwa, come into the picture.

The PML-N with astounding 46 percent of seats in National Assembly will be able to lead the new nexus of power with the full blessing of the military–bureaucracy establishment.

With the PTI forming provincial government in KPK and PML-N in Balochistan, both will have a full control of the area assisted by the army in providing a safe route to American convoys to the Indian Ocean.

Both political parties will make sure the circle is complete with everyone on board compensated with rewarding perks. Although there are serious disagreements between these and other religious parties, they have a conservative approach to several burning issues and an agreed upon position on engaging the Taliban in negotiations.

Based on ideological similarities and adjustments to their conflictive positions, even the minor parties like PML-F, JI and others will be lured to become part of the power circle by giving them ministries in the center and provincial governments.

Although the political elite in the whole process will apparently be in the driving seat, they actually will be subservient to the real power brokers, internal and external both.

In this new political landscape, the so-called liberal and progressive parties will be pressured to get out of the circle even though some of them like the PPP-P and the MQM still hold lead positions in the political hierarchy determined by the seats they secured in the center and provinces.

Unfortunately, both belong to a province not so high on the hierarchy of power in the new circle. While Punjab, KPK and Balochistan will be the main players in the circle, Sindh will form the periphery relegated to maintain peace within the province and nothing else.

What would the ruling PML-N gain from this arrangement? You might remember stopping drone attacks was the major promise that PML-N made with voters during its election campaign and as soon as the results were out Nawaz Sharif was announcing his intentions to collaborate with the US on the condition that drone attacks will be stopped.

So, drones will be one of the major bargaining chips for making new arrangements. Obama’s recent announcement mostly as a result of internal pressures that drone attacks will be subjected to transparency and more scrutiny to limit civil casualties in drone attacks will be a favorable sign to stop drone attacks in Pakistan.

This will also be a sigh of relief for the Taliban leadership for whom drones have been the only deterrent that killed a large number of their leaders in Pakistan. It will also be a strong rationale for convincing them to come to the negotiating table.

What would the new arrangement offer to the people of Pakistan? When the whole game is driven by the externally determined geopolitical dynamics, it leaves little for the people of Pakistan who rushed to the polling stations on May 11 with a hope that their vote will bring change.

Unfortunately while big winners of this game will be the US along with the Pakistani establishment, the poor masses will be the ultimate losers.

They might feel some relief in their daily life with decreasing incidents of terrorism until the ruling elite and Taliban are in agreement. As soon as they develop conflict, which is bound to happen in the current circumstances, this tranquility will also evaporate soon.

Showing desperation in starting negotiating with the Taliban will not serve the purpose of the US administration, Pakistan and Afghanistan in the long run. The Taliban, however, will enter into the negotiating room with an upper hand in the current conditions and they will know, as well as the other parties, that they are not pressured militarily to come to the negotiating table.

While negations are possible, agreement is a farfetched expectation within the context of the developing political scenario. This whole drama, meanwhile, will give the US enough time to get most of its troops out of the region safely with a limited damage and cost.

Agreement or no agreement, lower and middle classes of Pakistan will continue to suffer from unemployment, energy crisis, terrorism and price hikes on a daily basis.

Thus, the plan has been conceived, the circle of power has been drawn and players have been chosen to begin another round of a familiar political game for the next five years.

The author is a political commentator and media analyst who works at the University of North Texas (US) as Assistant Dean. He can be reached at [email protected].