Nawaz Sharif and his detractors

Defender of the interests of one class or leader of all?

The newly elected PML-N government, which would hopefully be in office in the first week of June, faces daunting challenges. The party has also certain strengths that can help it defuse the challenges with a fair chance of success.

The most urgent challenge is power shortages. These have brought thousands of distraught people on the roads. The PML-N has also to fix the economy, remove the structural impediments to growth, bring down inflation and create tens of thousands of new jobs if it wants to rule in peace. The party’s economic policy must start showing initial results at least within a year. Opinion surveys would start showing whether people feel the situation is better than under the previous government or worse. Hopefully Nawaz will not yield to the impulse of shooting the messenger as has happened under his predecessors.

Nawaz has also to rein in the terrorists who continue to attack innocent citizens and target security personnel. Half a dozen incidents of the sort have already taken place after the announcement of the election results. In the latest incident of the sort which occurred in Quetta on Thursday at least 12 people, of which eight were policemen, died in a bomb blast. Till the TTP is made to stop the terrorist attacks, whether through talks which seems difficult or through a Swat-like operation, there is little hope of fresh investments coming in or the revival of the economy taking place.

Nawaz has vowed to bring civil-military relations in line with the Basic Law. He has promised that the army will be no more than a department of the government under the prime minister. The last government expanded the scope of democracy, increased provincial autonomy and the share of the federating units in the joint pool, created badly needed institutions like an independent Election Commission and a consensus caretaker set up. People expect Nawaz to further strengthen the system.

A vigilant Supreme Court is not likely to settle at anything short of the rule of law. Appointments to important government officials and autonomous bodies will therefore have to be made on merit – something totally new for the PML-N. There would be no blue eyed boys heading key administrative and police positions. Transparency would have to be observed in signing big contacts.

Mian Nawaz Sharif’s main strength lies in the big mandate he has received. He had all along wished to rule with simple majority in order to put into practice his own policies without any adulterations introduced under the compulsion of alliances.

After several independent NA candidates joining the PML-N, the party is able to form a government at the centre without seeking any other party’s support. Unlike the PPP which could not have remained in power without obliging highly demanding allies, Nawaz Sharif can take decisions with confidence. He can thus practice good governance if he is really inclined to. He can take brave decisions. Nawaz presently has a weak position in the Senate but through a policy of reconciliation that he has vowed to follow, he can enlist the support of other parties also. The Senate could in fact exercise a healthy check on the tendency that Nawaz revealed during his second tenure in the1990s to accumulate all powers in his own hands.

The big mandate from Punjab, the main recruiting centre of the army, will also help Nawaz rationalize the army-civilian relations. This would have been a highly tricky task for any prime minister from a minority province. The voice of the Punjab’s sole spokesman carries an extra weight when it comes to dealing with the army. One hopes that the long awaited change is brought through parliament rather than through an office order by the prime minister. Among other things this will make the change lasting.

The smaller provinces however have numerous justifiable complaints about Punjab and its leaders. Nawaz would do well not to project himself as an advocate of Punjab’s interests alone. He has to look like an even handed big brother, willing to sacrifice for the uplift of smaller provinces and removing the age old grievances.

Nawaz is the representative of the business class which is considered to possess managerial skills and efficiency rarely seen in those coming from the feudal culture. He is thus supposedly better placed to handle the economy. The big thing to watch is whether he is willing to tax the business community which is the biggest dodger of taxes right from a common shop keeper to the super rich industrialists. Many think he failed to raise taxes from his community in the past and is going to fail again. The only way left to pay off the circular debt would in that case be through loans, Saudi crude and furnace oil on deferred payment being an example of the sort. This would considerably add to the burden of loans the poor nation has to carry.

Hopefully Nawaz’s special relations with the Saudi royalty will not lead to the cancelation of the Pak-Iran gas pipeline which is an economic need. There are a number of excuses that can be cooked up to cancel the project. A demand can be put up to review the agreement and then announce that the price needs to be slashed.

Unless Nawaz learns to live with his political rivals in peace, he will face challenges from opposition parties which will intensify with the passage of time. Imran Khan, who got the second largest number of votes, is going to be the first challenger. Raising taxes locally was a major plank of Imran Khan’s policy. This was the only way, he maintained, to get rid of the begging bowl. One cannot be the defender of the interests of one single class and call himself the leader of the nation.

Nawaz needs social peace in order to be able to implement his policies. This has led him to have a meeting with Zardari on the sidelines of the lunch for the Chinese premier. Nawaz has also proposed to the opposition to shun street protests as a tactic for government change. Few would differ with him on the point despite the fact that the PML-N continued to hurl challenges of the sort to the PPP government. The PML-N was the proponent of elections before time maintaining that the PPP had lost its mandate. The PML-N pressurised the PPP-led government to hold polls ahead of the 2012 budget session. It tried its best to bundle off the PPP government by taking the so called Memo Gate sandal to the Supreme Court and creating hysteria over the issue. Soon it will meet its nemesis unless it learns to have better relations with opponents.

The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.