What now?

The PML-N’s golden chance

After what seemed like years of campaigning, speculations, name-calling, conspiracy theories and what not, the most anticipated general elections, for my generation at least, finally concluded. If the eventual outcome is to be taken at face value, with the huge mandate given to the winner in mind minus the various allegations of rigging and all that is rotten, it appears that the result has been an extremely joyous one for the significant majority of voters of this country; disappointing for those who thought that their voters would still turn up to support them despite their shortcomings and incompetence; and incomprehensible for the rest, who seemed to ride on a wave of unrealistic expectations and perception only to wake up post-May 11 with a bad case of hangover that often follows such a high.

Before proceeding any further, I would take this time to toot my own horn for a bit. When my assessment of the seats in Lahore was printed on the pages of this very newspaper two weeks prior to the polls, I faced a barrage of questions and opinions from disgruntled supporters of one particular party for not considering certain factors which they apparently believed were to act as game-changers; the youth vote; the passion and vigour or ‘Junoon’ of their supporters; their naïve and idealistic belief that their message and rhetoric seeking a poll on principles was stronger and more effective than others and was enough to tilt the tide in their favour; and so on. While addressing their reservations, I mastered my two-pronged response; firstly, the entire youth vote was not a guarantee for their particular party and it would split for reasons and factors which are too long to list here; and secondly, for a fair and objective analysis of something as complicated as elections in a city such as ours, you cannot and should not really consider ‘passion’, ‘motivation’ and all that jazz as reasonable indicators because the ground reality was and is significantly different than the one perceived by them.

While I got 12 out of a total 13 seats right (I still cannot figure out for the life of me how Samina Ghurki lost) and while am in a position to play my favourite game of ‘I told you so’ and claim a sense of superiority over some extremely senior and respected analysts who predicted differently, I shouldn’t because I believe any prudent mind who had followed politics in the city from the pre-tsunami days should have reached the same conclusion as I did. But what’s the harm in saying it one last time? I told you so!

On a serious note, what went wrong? Why, despite the popular perception created by analysts and media houses suggesting a hung parliament, did we see one party walk away with the ‘tiger’s share’ of the seats? Surely the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and Pakistan Peoples Party-Parliamentarians (PPP-P) were hoping to make more of a dent in Punjab if not in just Lahore than what we eventually saw. And more importantly for these and all other parties, what now?

It is the ‘what now’ question that I want to focus on, in turn, aiming to briefly suggest a future course of action and strategy for both the disgruntled party as well as the disappointed party, namely the PTI and the PPP-P respectively.

Let’s first address the fall from grace for the one party that has always staked a claim at being the ‘only national party’ in the country, simply because it isn’t anymore. One doesn’t need to know rocket science to figure out where they went wrong. Granted that their campaigns were hampered by threats and other such factors but a mere perusal of newspapers from the last five years should be sufficient for their think-tanks to prepare a mile-long list of faults and errors that they committed while in power. Yes the NFC, amendments to the constitution and the doing away of presidential powers were good initiatives, but the general public, as it showed, weren’t interested in these steps which the common man fails to understand or appreciate, and craves for immediate relief.

All the social indicators point towards a job poorly done by the previous government. The level of disappointment amongst the masses can best be analysed by the fact that all the coalition partners of PPP-P suffered due to their affiliation with the last government. Awami National Party (ANP) not only lost their government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa but also had only one seat in the National Assembly to show for their performance and sacrifices. Similarly, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat could not have imagined the damage that was caused to Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) candidates by agreeing to a seat-adjustment/coalition with PPP-P. MQM would probably have lost more seats too, if their voters didn’t have the remarkable capability of casting four votes per second for their candidates.

With their popularity graph at an all-time low, the PPP-P needs a complete overhaul, especially in Punjab. Maybe drop the extra ‘P’; maybe do a bit of spring-cleaning and get rid of all such leaders and members who have been successful in alienating and disenfranchising the party’s core supporters; no change will be big enough. One major hurdle for PPP-P turned out to be lack of a central leader for the rest to rally around. With the president barred from campaigning and Bilawal not ready yet, the party should have had someone to lead from the front. It is time to start grooming some young and new faces to re-establish the party in Punjab and try to reconcile with the lost voter base of the party. It won’t win them the next elections, but it would be a significant start.

As for the ‘ballaybaaz’ of PTI, they need to first of all pat themselves on the back for a job quite well done. From having won only one seat since 1997 to becoming the third largest party in the National Assembly and being in a position to form a government in KPK, they have come a long way. What went wrong for them? Well for starters, it was a case of too many expectations on the part of the supporters. Secondly, the PTI supporters and candidates are guilty of exactly the same things that they accuse others of; arrogance and indifference to the opinions of others. In some constituencies in Punjab, PTI fielded candidates whom the locals could not relate to and who themselves appeared not to know much about the needs of their common constituents.

The Tabdeeli Razakars in Lahore, for example, were mostly volunteers from well off areas of the city with absolutely no recognition in the areas they were working and trying to mobilise support. This is where PTI needs to focus because it is in an ideal position to start the groundwork for the next elections. The candidates or local PTI offices need to start socialising and networking in their areas right away; attend funerals, weddings and whatever event possible to establish grass-root level presence in their respective constituencies. And for heaven’s sake, avoid the fiasco that we saw just a couple of months prior to the elections and have the intra-party elections at least a year in advance, if not more, to the general elections. If there is decent governance in KP coupled with poor performance by the newly elected government in the centre, then PTI may get a chance to avenge the first-innings deficit.

A few words for our new rulers: Fortunately for PML-N, the bar set by the previous government at the centre is so low that anything they do will be considered as an upgrade on what we saw for the past five years. But I am sure the leadership of PML-N is aware that they can’t afford any slip-ups or they may face the wrath of the voters with a certain Pathan waiting to pounce on their every mistake come elections next time around. The residents of Punjab are hopeful that we won’t have many complaints from the new government especially as far as administration goes but there are still a few concerns. The PML-N’s continued affiliation with extremist sectarian outfits still sticks at the back of minds of all minorities. So we request the new government of Punjab, can we please have someone new as the provincial law/home minister? We really don’t trust the previous one. Oh, and a proper health minister would be much appreciated as well.

The writer is an advocate of the high courts, a guidance and career counselor and a public speaking coach. The views expressed here are his own. He can be contacted at [email protected]