Pak-Afghan ties: the slide continues

Reports of Afghanistan seeking military aid from India disturbing

When the current Afghan President Hamid Karzai attended the oath taking ceremony of President Asif Ali Zardari in 2008, citizens on both sides of the Durand Line hoped that relations between the two neighbours had turned a page. Come mid-2013, relations have taken a nosedive, and arguably have reached the lowest point since the Cold War period. With reports suggesting that the Afghan president is due to seek military aid from India during his three-day visit to the country and the Afghan government pursuing a policy of reconciliation towards the Taliban, the move appears to be directed at Pakistan.

There was hope that the border skirmishes on the Durand Line, and the sloganeering from the Afghan side, had come to a close with a meeting of the two military establishments. But with the Afghan president now turning to discussing the cross-border clashes with India, with whom the Pakistani establishment still harbours suspicions, it does not bode well for relations between the two countries. The Afghan ambassador to India admitted the country needed India’s help with “equipment and weapons to fight”, with a spokesman for the Indian foreign ministry saying India was ready to obilge. If an arms deal materialises, suspicions will gain more credence that the new Indo-Afghan alliance is a way of cornering Pakistan.

With India and Afghanistan already having an agreement to train Afghan security forces since 2011, there are already enough suspicions on the Pakistani side regarding the honesty of the Afghan side in dialogue with Pakistan. The Afghan side, on the other hand, fears that Pakistan is trying to sabotage its efforts to start peace talks with the Taliban. With Pakistan considered crucial to the US-Afghan agenda of bringing Taliban leaders allegedly hiding in the country to the negotiating table before the NATO troops pull-out, should Afghanistan not be talking to Pakistan more than India? Some analysts have argued that no arms deal will come out of the trip, and the rumours of such a deal were only initiated for more political brinkmanship with Pakistan. If the matter will close at such, the negative effects of such a deal on regional relations could be mitigated. But if it does go ahead, then it could be taken as a move from India to intensify the rivalry with Pakistan. With India having invested over $2 billion in Afghan infrastructure, it is logical to understand that it would be willing to aid the Afghan government at a time of need. But surely the ‘right time’ is when Afghan relations with Pakistan are not at a breaking point. For now it appears Karzai is willing to go to any length to alienate Pakistan. The challenge is for the new Nawaz Sharif government, carrying the torch for peace with India, to ensure that relations on both sides of the border improve.