The conservatives’ rule

The political right has trumped political left, but will it deliver?

The results from the 2013 general elections have surprised many candidates and political parties. Even the victors (notably one political party), who are dancing in streets in euphoria, have been surprised by the extent of their victory. The incumbent political government and its coalition partners have been all but wiped out of the electoral map. PML-Q, the most significant ally of the outing PPP government, has been reduced to a two-man party in the National Assembly. The ANP has not even been afforded this small dignity; their party, and perhaps political lineage, has almost disappeared. MQM, another ally of the former government, has retained its hold on Karachi, for the most part, but has not done much more than that. PML-N has secured 124 seats in the National Assembly, and an incredible 214 seats in the Punjab Provincial Assembly. But the really surprising part of the elections has been the fact that there is no particular opposition party. PPP, the second-largest party in the NA has less than one-third the number of seats that PML-N does, and PTI (the second-largest party in the Punjab Assembly) has one-fourth the number of seats that PML-N has.

There has also been tremendous hue and cry – mostly from the urban centres, but also some rural areas – about massive accounts of rigging. Specifically, in Lahore and Karachi the privileged class, that came out and voted (perhaps for the first time), is displeased at seeing that the candidate of their choice was not declared winner. Some pundits have dispelled such protests as the crybaby noises of the elite, who are so used to always getting what they want in our country that they cannot fathom why their vote did not result in a victor. Regardless, while not all such complaints have met a sympathetic ear of the Election Commission, certain select polling stations and constituencies have been ordered to either recount the votes, or re-poll (in fresh elections).

Fact of the matter, however, is this: even if the rigging charges are all true, and even if the recounting or re-polling (in the constituencies where such complaints have been lodged) is done, it will, at the very maximum, change the result for 5 to 10 seats. While the flipping of even one seat of the parliament is significant, and anyone who has rigged the polls should be brought to bear the fullest extent of the law, the truth is that it will not change PML-N’s victory, or its overwhelming nature.

According to the ECP, almost 60 percent of the registered votes across Pakistan were cast in this election. What conclusions can thus be drawn from these elections?

At the very primitive and emotive plane, the results can be justified and explained through the resonating rhetoric of ‘dekho dekho kaun aaya, sher aaya, sher aaya!’. The PML-N jiyalas mobilised better than the rest. Their reach was farther (at least in the rural areas of Punjab) than all other parties. And their leadership responded to the call of these jiyalas much better than all other political parties. But assessing the elections as being just this would be naïve and unworthy.

Next, on a political plane, the results reveal two important conclusions. First, the message of change and revolution, by Imran Khan and his party, has not penetrated through the rural masses (who constitute the majority of Pakistan’s population). Or, even in case it has been broadcasted to such masses, it has not resonated with them. And the votes, across rural Pakistan were caste on beradari lines, and in favour of anyone who could get the thana kachehri work done for his or her constituents (in this case PML-N). Second, that the people of Pakistan, once all the rosy-rhetoric of revolution faded away, have decided to cast their vote in terms of experience rather than hope. In the shadow of PPP’s abysmal performance across the board, PML-N was the one party that (comparatively) showed signs of performance and forward momentum. And this – tangible performance, in the shape of the Metro Bus, or Danish Schools, or laptops – trumped the intangible message of hope.

All this sounds like a rational choice. It can be justified, even explained. And it is reasonable. The worrying part, however, reveals itself when one tries to assess the results of these elections from an intellectual and ideological plane.

On the intellectual plane, the mandate of PML-N (along with its right-wing supporting parties) is worrisome. In this regard, the election can be seen as a contest between the voices of moderation and liberalism (embodied in the support of PTI and even PPP) against the forces of conservatism (in PML-N and its allies). And in this battle, the forces of conservatism have comprehensively defeated the voices of moderation. Some degree of rigging on not, in an election with a very high turnout, the nexus of Punjabi-traders, rural farmers and a brand of conservative youth has swept away the push towards moderation. It would be reasonable to expect that during the next parliamentary term, blended with overhead bridges, underpasses and a bullet-train, will be a set of conservative laws and standards (e.g., Ehtraam-e-Ramzan Ordinance). There will be no real push or desire to revisit the evidence standards for Blasphemy laws, or the state’s interference into declaring certain sub-groups as non-Muslims.

And this ideological divide, as worrisome as it is in terms of the ideological rift, has the mandate of the people. And this mandate has to be accepted and respected, even if so done grudgingly. This is the design of democracy. This is the command of our constitution.

Ideological differences aside, the election results may prove to be a much-needed medicine for our ailing nation. The PML-N leadership has a reputation of getting the work done. And they have the clear and unchallenged mandate of the people. There is no hung parliament. And therefore, no real hindrances in the ability of the PML-N leadership to deliver. And most importantly, in an election in which almost 60 percent of the votes were cast, there is little room for anyone to complain that the ‘silent-majority’ is not supportive of the government.

For now, whether one voted for PML-N or not, it is time for all of us to lend them our support in fixing the problems of Pakistan.

The writer is a lawyer based in Lahore. He has a Masters in Constitutional Law from Harvard Law School. He can be reached at: [email protected]