The second coming of Nawaz

But has he changed?

Change is what the people wanted, change they have, of sorts – though certainly not the brand new faces that the idealists dreamed of. After a long respite the Lion roars again for the majority, the withering arrow has viciously boomeranged, the tsunami downgraded to a gale force wind, while the kite continues its virulent tremors in the skies.

Numbers aside, Pakistan has achieved a huge milestone. Democracy stands victorious. The biggest fear, as mentioned in my last article, was voter turnout on the elections day due to preceding terror attacks. Well, the voting public confounded all – it was historic! The usual cries of mismanagement, rigging, electoral violence notwithstanding, this has been a fabulous victory. Congratulations people of Pakistan!

Come to the numbers game and excitement of government forming. The independents have as usual performed strongly; whom they join may not be such a mystery given the strength of the majority. The extreme right per se has directly contributed no more than their usual share. So it is business as usual with the exception that there is no need for a coalition government. The numbers provide a simple majority to the PML-N at the federal level. The people of the Punjab have gutted the PPPP and the PML-Q. The PML-N has doubled its share of representation, gaining a total grip on the majority province. Sindh continues in abject misery with no apparent relief in sight, the majority being with the PPP. The Balochistan saga remains fractious.

The real change could be in the KP. Out goes the hereditary incumbent, the ANP, God-child of legendary Badshah Khan, to be replaced by an allegedly liberal-conservative PTI, a complete newcomer, led by cricket legend Imran Khan. The PTI has exactly the same number as the ANP in 2008, 33. The ANP obtained the required 63 to form the government through an alliance with the PPP. The PPP has almost ceased to exist; down from 18 to 2 seats. The ANP has met a similar fate. With 14 independents and 20 from the rightist JUI-F and JI, it is almost certain that the PML-N with its 13, especially given the status of the PTI as a Punjab based party, will make a forceful attempt at forming the government.

From his hospital bed Imran Khan appeared confident PTI will make it. Undoubtedly, Imran must be a very happy man considering the votes won even by PTI’s losing candidates in the Punjab. For a new party not only to outdo the PPP but also to participate in innumerable close finishes is more than noteworthy. I hope Imran succeeds in KP, for more reasons than just ‘change’. It allows us to know him and gives him the opportunity to provide “governance, order, system” but also to acquire experience in operational politics of coalition building and management. Then, if successful, running what will be a complex government and a huge challenge given the current status of KP. This, and performance in the National Assembly will allow the people to assess PTI and certainly set the tone for Imran’s political future.

There are those who say that the Taliban are behind his success. Bilour so much as said, “this is the change the Taliban wanted”, while conceding victory. The flip side says, Imran’s pull was so strong that despite all efforts Taliban could not keep his voters away. The jury remains out on this one. Time will reveal all but managing that devil will certainly be the predominant issue. All development and progress depends on law and order and if the PTI is successful in negotiating on equitable terms it can prove to be a real game changer for KP. And for Pakistan!

Mian Nawaz Sharif is certainly not stepping into a bed of roses. Pakistan faces multiple extreme issues that need immediate response. His call for participation from other political parties, now strengthened with the simple majority, is timely and wise. What he is able to achieve from this parley depends on flexibility and sagacity from all. There is a chance that there will be governments headed by different parties in three provinces; therefore to sell a common national agenda requires not only wisdom but also moral courage.

That there will be no delay in government formation is a good omen for Pakistan. The budget is on the anvil. The economy is in dire straits. There is a need to engage the IMF and the World Bank on top priority. Economic reforms are long overdue – as are solutions to issues relating to power, energy and domestic production. But at the base of all this is the political and administrative changes over the next six months.

The president is the first to go in September of this year, followed by the army chief and the chief justice in the same quarter. These issues will surface immediately, even during the currency of the budget session. So how will Mian Nawaz deal with these? President Zardari currently has a majority in the Senate for another three years, and also is likely to form the Sindh government. He is also from the minority province. And one can be certain that he has the desire for another term. Perhaps more than desire he needs the protection.

The scales are precariously balanced on this issue. The last five years has illustrated a political adjustment between the PPP and the PML-N. They have lived in quasi peace, barring a hiccup when the Punjab government was suspended early on. They have cooperated in the NA allowing maximum legislation and for the first time the leader of the opposition headed the public accounts committee. Will Zardari be able to evoke this ‘bond’ and convince Nawaz now that his support in Islamabad and the Punjab is insignificant? That is the multimillion-dollar question. He brings to the table the Senate majority paving the way for ease of legislation for the majority of Nawaz’ term, he provides stability in Sindh, if the MQM continues its support and he is a more than well-known commodity.

Related to this is the distinct possibility that maybe Nawaz prefers a PPP-led opposition. Khurshid Shah as chief whip and Chaudhry Nisar as opposition leader worked closely together during the last parliament. Roles could be reversed with continued bonhomie. Again a question of the ‘devil you know’. The alternative would be a real opposition in the form of Imran Khan as opposition leader. I would strongly wager Nawaz would not risk this as he will not risk appointing anyone but Shahbaz as CM of the Punjab. They are unlikely to give Imran any space to manoeuvre. But whether this is likely to allow Zardari a lease of life, is a question that only Nawaz can answer.

The role of the MQM will continue to dominate in one form or another. Altaf Hussain’s hosts, the UK and the USA, delivered the MQM to Zardari and with Nawaz’s majority he does not need them to form the government but the PPP does in Sindh. And MQM does like to be in government. Perhaps they get the new CM. But the new development will be that Nawaz is more than likely to take his single MNA from Karachi as federal minister as he will probably some member of the PML-F to have a truly representational government in Islamabad.

The impression is that Nawaz has changed – for the better. I believe God has given him the opportunity to use this for the benefit of the Pakistani people. In taking important decisions, the three personnel changes included, he should allow himself to be guided by the Serenity Prayer. “God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference”.

The writer can be contacted at: [email protected]