The shrinking space for prospects

The choice is hardly tempting

The day this piece appears in the paper, the nation will be at the polling stations, casting votes in one of the most unpredictable and decisively one of the most critical elections in the history of Pakistan. How is this first possible democratic transition going to shape the future of the people and the country over the next five years (and beyond) and how is that going to be any different from what they have endured in the last five years?

In spite of the electoral process and its fastidious extenuations having been gravely manipulated mostly by the members of the traditional political mafias, the prospect of transition from one democratically-elected government to the next is a good omen. But, beyond that, the canvas of prospects looks bleak.

Over the last few years, there has been a consistent shrinkage of influence of various political parties in terms of turfs that these have traditionally commanded. The PPP’s influence has reduced considerably in all the provinces: it has never won in Punjab after the 1970s while its hold on Sindh – its bastion of power – has shrunk considerably, ceding a number of constituencies in Karachi and Hyderabad to the MQM. The PML-N has principally tried to consolidate its hold in Punjab – the throne of its power – but has also, in the recent past, endeavoured to spread its tentacles into Sindh, the heartland of the PPP influence. The PML-Q is on the verge of disintegration with the ANP showing signs of depleting influence in the KPK. The JUI-F is making a frenetic effort to hold on to its strongholds in the KPK and Balochistan while the MQM’s fraudulently-carved and fear-protected citadels in Karachi and Hyderabad are under assault and there are definitive signs that it may lose a few in the coming elections. The Pir Pagara factor has assumed enhanced relevance in the context of the 10-party alliance that he has pieced together with the nationalist groups and the PML-N. He has his sights set on holding on to his traditional constituencies and then adding a few. In spite of the nationalist forces of the province having decided to participate in the election process – a propitious development in its own right – Balochistan is likely to be divided among all stakeholders who are making a fraught-with-danger bid there.

The PTI and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) are the new entrants in the election arena this time around, both having opted to stay away from the last exercise. In addition to other issues, the JI has also suffered from a leadership crisis and the turf of its influence appears to have reduced considerably, but it may still put the MQM under pressure in Karachi.

However, it is the PTI that poses a real-time challenge to the traditional political outfits of the country, particularly the PML-N whom it faces in Punjab. The energy- and enthusiasm-laden young marshals of the PTI are out to subdue the well-dug-out and manifestly corrupt armoury of the PML-N. The PTI’s election campaign has been marked with a continuous groundswell of popularity which increased further as a consequence of the unfortunate fall of its chairman at an election rally. The wave of sympathy vote, though inconsiderable, is also likely to lure the fence-sitters to its fold. But, more than any other factor, the outcome of this battle-royal depends mostly on the voter turn-out on the critical day of the elections.

In all the years that elections have been held in the country, the 1970 exercise witnessed the highest voter turn-out to date that was close to 60 per cent followed by a near 48% during the 2008 elections. All other elections have witnessed a turn-out around 30 per cent with a bit more or less. In spite of the debilitating factors including the rampant militancy, the damage it has already caused and the dangers it poses to the prospective voters, a 60 per cent plus voter turn-out is being predicted to hit the polling booths on May 11. This is that one factor that is most likely to impact the outcome of the elections: the more the voter turn-out, the more the danger to the traditional political mafias’ hold on power. A voter turn-out in excess of 60 per cent is likely to topple a few stalwarts and pave the way for the induction of a relatively new team of legislators who may move swiftly to define the destiny of the country. The question is: will this happen and what are the threats that may still keep the voter turn-out low?

The militancy factor having already been touched upon, there are two other possible elements that may impact the voter turn-out. The traditional corrupt political mafias, fully cognisant of the danger that an increased turn-out may pose to their stranglehold on power, may employ all the murky tricks in their bags not to allow that to happen. This would be particularly visible in the rural constituencies where the hold of the feudal lords and their cohorts is still a potent factor. More specifically, they may succeed in keeping the female voters away from the polling booths and influence the youth by invoking the family and clan linkages on the election-day.

The other factor is a certain level of disenchantment that has impacted the ascendency of the PTI in the recent past. Principally, this concerns the kind of people who have been inducted into the party and now given the tickets in preference to the more deserving ideological aspirants. This has considerably diluted the prospect of change that the party has been promising to the people. There is also considerable scepticism about the commitment of these late-entrants into the party and whether they will stick to the party in the event it is not able to form the next government and opt to sit in the opposition in preference to becoming part of a coalition as its chairman has repeatedly asserted. Will they stay loyal to the party line and fight out a long and arduous battle for the supremacy of the rule of law or, true to the corrupt practices they have embraced in the past, jump the fence and join an undemocratic coinage to reap lucrative dividends? On this may also hinge the fate of the democratic system in the country and its viability to deliver on the grave issues that the country is faced with.

The choice is hardly tempting. It is a toss-up between a corrupt, decrepit and confrontational mindset led by the PML-N, a relatively young and unknown outfit marshalled by the charismatic Imran Khan unfortunately surrounded by a surfeit of people hailing from the old order and an unprincipled and self-serving coalition pieced together by the Machiavellian Zardari. We’ll know by the late evening!

The writer is a political analyst. He can be reached at [email protected]