Will elections make a difference?

A lot will remain the same

Tomorrow Pakistan will hold one of its most controversial elections. The irony is that this would happen under the country’s first independent and powerful election commission and a consensus caretaker setup.

The PPP, the ANP and the MQM have been “debarred” by the TTP from elections. Several deadly terrorist attacks on their rallies and candidates have seriously limited the ability of these parties to approach the voters. Whatever their failures, only the voters had the right to pass a judgment on their performance rather than a band of outlaws operating from the tribal areas.

There will be change in the country after the elections though it is likely to be small. What matters is how significant it is going to be.

Imran Khan’s sudden burst on the center-stage of politics from nowhere is a warning to the old guard – whether secular, conservative or religious – to be more honest and responsive than they have been.

There is a widespread awakening in the middle class. A whole lot of otherwise apolitical youth has been galvanized into political action. How many of them will retain their interest in politics in the days to come remains to be seen. Will they continue to focus only on issues like due importance to merit, gender equality, opposition to dynastic leadership at all levels and an equal opportunity to compete? Or will they also embrace the matters near to the heart of the toiling masses that include eradication of poverty, better education and health facilities, adequate housing and jobs? In other words will the youth remain tied to the ideals of liberal democracy or take a turn to the left?

A lot will remain the same. The old political families which have all along sustained the status quo are fairly represented in all the parties, including the ones clamouring for change and revolution. Well known Musharraf loyalists are contesting on the tickets of all major parties.

What is more no party has a programme which makes the slightest departure from the neo-liberal version of the free market economy. The panacea to all economic ills is to privatise and deregulate every state enterprise. There is no talk about a viable and comprehensive social security net for the most vulnerable sections of society. None is willing to reduce the defence spending or put an end to land grants to those in uniform.

The toiling masses have no effective role in the elections. For one they are so deeply absorbed in relentless fight for survival, which requires that they devote their entre energy to make both ends meet. The working class is reeling under the impact of the neo-liberal policies and the domestic economic slowdown. The trade union movement has consequently weakened.

In rural areas, the creative energy of millions of landless or poor peasants remains unutilised due to the uneven distribution of land. Only land reforms, which are not on the agenda of any party, can put their hidden potential to use. The key interests of the downtrodden masses find little reflection in the manifestos of major parties. The common man thus will continue to be treated roughly till he develops awareness and is organized to fight for his rights.

The day of the left has yet to come. A fledgling Awami Workers Party which was born six months back has got into the election fray at a time when it was still in its formative process. How many of its half a dozen candidates manage to gather a respectable number of votes is anybody’s guess.

To start with, those who come to power could at least bring down the incidence of corruption, buy off the circulatory debt and improve the law and order. This is what the PML-N and the PTI both have promised. The only difference is in their timelines. At this stage even a modicum of adherence to the rule of law and good governance would come as a relief.

Both the PML-N and PTI want to bring the TTP to the negotiating table. This is what the ANP was forced to do in Swat with the result that the Swati Taliban used the lull in military operation to strengthen their position. Once this had been achieved they went back on their promises of peace despite the reestablishment of Sharia courts demanded by them.

The TTP thinking regarding peace can be gauged from the pronouncements of its chief. Hakimullah Mehsud’s video message released last month should act as an eye-opener to those who want to resolve the issue through talks. Mehsud summarised his network’s stand in three plain sentences. The TTP, he said, is fighting against democracy which is a system of the infidels. It wants to enforce shariah which is possible only through waging jihad. A time will come when the Muslims will establish the Caliphate on the surface of earth.

Hopefully the new government would be able to end the targeting of the Baloch and the Hazara as well as the settlers in Balochistan. Further, it would improve ties with India, which is on the agenda of both the PML-N and the PTI.

Some of the vital domestic issues and foreign policy matters continue to remain in the army’s domain. These include policies regarding Balochistan, dealings with the terrorist groups as well as relations with the US, India and Afghanistan.

Whichever government comes to power will have to retrieve the turf lost to the army. The civilian government’s authority over the military has to be established to further strengthen democracy. The last government fortified democracy by restoring the constitution to its original position, extended provincial autonomy and the share of the smaller provinces in divisible pool. The PPP introduced a consensus NFC Award. There were no political prisoners and the media was free.

While the PTI has been silent on the issue of civil- army relations, the PML-N has taken an unambiguous stand on the matter. In an interview with the Indian journalist Karan Thapar, Nawaz Sharif vowed to make the military establishment subservient to the civilian government, hold an enquiry into the Kargil misadventure, initiate Musharraf’s trial on treason and bring relations with India to the high trajectory of February 1999. Hopefully this would be done with the support of the parliament rather than arbitrary actions.

The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.