JI-PML-N row benefiting PPP in NA-49

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As the battle among the 26 candidates vying for NA-49 in Islamabad is on its peak, the future prospects are getting clearer with each passing day.

The major players contesting for the constituency are Dr Tariq Fazal Chaudhry from Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar from Pakistan Peoples Party, Zubair Farooq from Jamaat-e-Islami and Chaudhry Ilyas Mehrban of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf.

In the 2008 elections, PML-N’s Dr Tariq Fazal Chaudhry won the seat securing 45,482 votes against 44,726 votes by Nayyar Hussain Bokhari of PPP and 34,546 votes by PML-Q’s Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar. PPP lost the seat with a minimal difference of 756 votes.

In the 2002 elections, the same seat was won by PPP’s Nayyar Bokhari who secured 47,884 votes against PML-N’s Tariq Fazal Chaudhry’s 16,832 votes.

In the 2013 elections, history seems to be repeating itself as the situation seems to be favouring the PPP candidate.

Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar enjoys full support of Nayyar Bokhari’s family which is among the most influential families in the federal capital. The influence has been catapulted after Bokhari was given the office of Senate chairman.

During his tenure as Senate chairman, Bokhari’s popularity graph surged as he initiated various development projects, particularly the supply of gas to several rural areas.

PML-N’s victory in NA-49 during 2008 elections was due to Jamaat-e-Islami’s boycott of the elections.

But in these elections, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has emerged as a third force. PTI has fielded Chaudhry Ilyas Mehrban in NA-49, son of an influential businessman. PTI seems to be targeting to defeat of PML-N candidate.

The unprecedented division of voters by PML-N, Jamaat-e-Islami and PTI would ultimately go to the advantage of the PPP as the “jiyalas” of PPP stick to their party in thick and thin.

Although PML-N’s candidate Tariq Fazal Chaudhry enjoys good public and huge support of his family, he is facing tough challengers from PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami.

PPP’s election alliance with PML-Q is another advantage for the former’s candidate in Islamabad as the latter has fielded no candidate against Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar who is likely to get the support of the PML-Q voters too.

The PML-N or Jamaat-e-Islami could have made an upset in NA-49 constituency had both the parties agreed on a seat adjustment.

During the negotiations, PML-N seemed willing to withdraw its candidate Anjum Aqeel from NA-48 to support JI’s Mian Aslam. In return, the PML-N had demanded JI to support its candidate Tariq Fazal Chaudhry in NA-49 by withdrawing the candidacy of Zubair Farooq. This proposal, however, was denied by the JI.

Moreover, contrary to the 2008 elections, the number of candidates has also doubled. In both the constituencies of Islamabad, 77 candidates are running for office against 34 in 2008 and 29 in 2002. This factor would also have a considerable impact on the vote bank of the major players.

Among the independents and those coming from comparatively smaller parties, there are some candidates who have a few thousand voters in their pocket that would divide the supporters.

However, considering all pros and cons, a majority of the factors seem to favour the PPP candidate in NA-49 during upcoming elections, particularly due to the voters’ breakup caused by a one-on-one competition between JI and PML candidates.

5 COMMENTS

  1. These are not the facts. Only the polls and walls will give vote to PPP candidate where they have spent so much to show presence. PTI will win from here, evident from huge rally and gathering at baharakau.

  2. There is very strong support of PTI. All the analysis is based on previous trend when PTI was not present. This time INSHALLAH PTI will win.

  3. pml n win the na 49 and na 48 with big margin.the people of islamabad love to nawaz sharif and get vote to shar and INSHALLAH shar aay ga or tabdili lay ga
    dr tariq fazal ch ISHALLAH WIN KARY GA 49 SA AND ANJAM AQEEL KHAN WIN KARY GA NA 48 SA

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